Vegas Dave's Philosophy Picks Week 1

[VegasDave]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5
Oakland Raiders +9.5

[DeluxeLiner]

Those games definitely popped out when I was looking at the card. Like em, probably will play them too. Best of luck Dave!

[KingJIM]

New contest- Beat Vegas Dave's Philosophy Picks??? Bol with your plays.

[aggieshawn]

I am totally against these two picks.

[Waterstpub87]

not to sound like a dumbass but what does bol mean? First week on the forums, apologies for being new

[james4512]

im on cowboys -3 early action rules

[VegasDave]

not to sound like a dumbass but what does bol mean? First week on the forums, apologies for being new

No problem, it means "Best of Luck"

im on cowboys -3 early action rules

No matter what happens, great line! . Give any consideration to middling? Dallas by 3, 4, or 6 all seem like pretty likely outcomes.

[VegasDave]

Video added!

[Waterstpub87]

thanks a lot Dave, I was wondering that for like a day or two now

[onthewhat]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.0

Pinnacle
09/11 11:11 -6 +104 / +6 -113
09/11 12:15 -5½ +102 / +5½ -110

BetJamaica
09/10 15:43 -6 -110 / +6 -110
09/11 12:13 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

5dimes
09/11 11:49 -6 +100 / +6 -120
09/11 12:15 -5 -110 / +5 -110

Bookmaker
09/07 12:57 -6 -110 / +6 -110
09/11 11:27 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

Greek
09/11 11:17 -6 -105 / +6 -115
09/11 12:11 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

[flyingillini]

Nice picks, good luck!

[Iceman]

For what it is worth, I think the Raiders game hits 10 at a lot of places at close and even then no way I am betting them. One of the worst teams in the history of the NFL, IMO. All these odd moves they have made through the years really start to show up this season in the win/loss column.

[VegasDave]

Pinnacle
09/11 11:11 -6 +104 / +6 -113
09/11 12:15 -5½ +102 / +5½ -110

BetJamaica
09/10 15:43 -6 -110 / +6 -110
09/11 12:13 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

5dimes
09/11 11:49 -6 +100 / +6 -120
09/11 12:15 -5 -110 / +5 -110

Bookmaker
09/07 12:57 -6 -110 / +6 -110
09/11 11:27 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

Greek
09/11 11:17 -6 -105 / +6 -115
09/11 12:11 -5½ -110 / +5½ -110

I'm using the line I got it at... you'll notice that Oakland is up to +9.5, but I still used +9.0.

Not trying to pull a fast one here. Next week I'll get them out earlier in the week... it's been a long one.

[onthewhat]

Well then post your plays when you make them at the "line you got".

[VegasDave]

Well then post your plays when you make them at the "line you got".

Alright, you are right. Updated to reflect the current lines. Thanks.

[onthewhat]

You have to understand that you are very visible and apparently have many followers. If your followers want to play your picks they have no choice but to pay 10 cents to get on the 6 or play 5.5

[daggerkobe]

Where's ur beisbol picks?

[onthewhat]

Where's ur beisbol picks?

[Roberta]

Dave, what about the Det/N.O. game, think the lions can at least cover the spread (+13).

[VegasDave]

Dave, what about the Det/N.O. game, think the lions can at least cover the spread (+13).

You could make a case for it, but that seemed like a fair line to me. Also Tampa and Oakland are both at home... I can't see Detroit going in and keeping it close. Not every dog makes the cut. Good luck though if you play it!

[MrMonkey]

Good luck this week Dave! Looks like the kid's going to be like a mosquito that you just can't get rid of? Win so at least alot of people following this can see him publicly go back on his word, everyone knows he's not going anywhere!

[Robust]

great vid VD.. rated it excellent.. though i don't agree with either pick.. lol

oak at +10 or more would be a better bet (duh.. lol).. at 9.5, i see them losing by 10 if i follow ya.. lol (thats on me, not you.. )

and dallas will destroy tampa.. that line should be at -9 or more.. at -5.5, there is just no reason to even look at tampa imo (what.. dallas wins by a FG only.. i think NOT!)..

but your record speaks for itself.. you don't lose 'em all.. lol. (that sounded bad, no? lol.. sorry). I will be on dallas, but might lay off oak/sd unless a line move catches my eye..

bol dave!

Robust

[ATB515]

The chargers are going to fukk up oakland. I'll be back here at the end of the game to tell you i told you so.

[Nickelicious]

I like your philosophy, VegasDave, since I try to look at the same emotional and psychological factors when grading a pick. Your record is solid and I think both of this week's picks have a chance of hitting. The lines have moved ridiculously against these teams (like 3 points!), and the Vegas oddsmakers were probably right to set the opening lines where they did.

But I do wonder how you identified these particular teams when they are going up against two teams (Dallas and San Diego) who also have a chip on their shoulder and great motivation to play well.

What about a team like Jacksonville, going against a cruise-control Indianapolis team that won't even get serious until the second half of the season? Getting +6.5 on the Jags seems like a solid play to me, and the public seems to agree.

Or what about mediocre teams like Cleveland and Denver, who the public is betting against just as much as the Bucs and the Raiders? Yet those lines haven't moved as much... could it be that the books know something we don't?

BOL on your plays tomorrow. I bet against them earlier in the week when the lines were more favorable to me, but you do have me worried about those plays now!

[VegasDave]

I like your philosophy, VegasDave, since I try to look at the same emotional and psychological factors when grading a pick. Your record is solid and I think both of this week's picks have a chance of hitting. The lines have moved ridiculously against these teams (like 3 points!), and the Vegas oddsmakers were probably right to set the opening lines where they did.

But I do wonder how you identified these particular teams when they are going up against two teams (Dallas and San Diego) who also have a chip on their shoulder and great motivation to play well.

What about a team like Jacksonville, going against a cruise-control Indianapolis team that won't even get serious until the second half of the season? Getting +6.5 on the Jags seems like a solid play to me, and the public seems to agree.

Or what about mediocre teams like Cleveland and Denver, who the public is betting against just as much as the Bucs and the Raiders? Yet those lines haven't moved as much... could it be that the books know something we don't?

BOL on your plays tomorrow. I bet against them earlier in the week when the lines were more favorable to me, but you do have me worried about those plays now!

The one year I did "poorly" on theses (24-22), I was trying to force it a little too much. As you point out, arguments can be made either way on almost any game.

In the end, I just try to be super selective. Philosophy picks aren't EVERY game the public is heavy on one side or there is RLM.

You'll see in my other thread I did take Cleveland and Jax, so I agree those aren't bad plays... they just didn't make the philosophy cut.

Good luck!

[RageWizard]

Nice picks Dave. I agree on most picks, but I couldn't get on the Jokeland pick. They are so disfunctional for so long, that they will have to prove to me something before I stop fading them each and every home game that they have. So I'm sticking with a philosophy that I use in the stock market as well as the NFL market. The trend is your friend. So I am still taking San Diego in this spot. Last year I thought that S.D was going to lose outright, but if you recall, they scored enough points in the 4th quarter to not only win the game, but more importantly, beat the spread.

I hope my NFL season goes better than the start of my college season 0-2 for the 2 weeks of play. I guess there is a team in the Big Ten who can compete with the better football programs, at least for 1 week at home.

[Bread]

I love you Vegas Dave.

[JoshW]

Good luck with your picks Dave.