No way to be a true 100% Pro Gambler in the USA

[Sam Odom]

Without endorsements there's no way to overcome the vig! Vig = honestly paying taxes and the built-in vig on the games.

[Sam Odom]

I've had a few good yrs gambling in my 30+ yrs doing it but I've never been 100% 'above board' with it, if I had there's no way to have shown a profit in the long run.

[vanzack]

There are lots of folks who would disagree with that assessment.

[Sam Odom]

Like who? Who can you say done it for say 20yrs straight? Bookies NOT included.

[vanzack]

Like who? Who can you say done it for say 20yrs straight? Bookies NOT included.

I personally know 2, 1 for about 30 years.

And I know of about 10 that have done it, including paying taxes, for at least - say 6 or 7 years.

There are plenty of them out there. Just gotta know where to look.

[vanzack]

Sam - there were over 200K people who filed as professional gamblers in the US in 2003.

Are you telling those 200K people that they cant make money?

[vanzack]

And PS - are you really not going to answer my PM about your other thread?

[Sam Odom]

There are plenty of them out there.

Good for them, I must tip my hat

With 7-10% vig and 20-35% taxes on winnings they must be good, very very good.

[vanzack]

Good for them, I must tip my hat

With 7-10% vig and 20-35% taxes on winnings they must be good, very very good.

They are.

But it is also a function of so many other people being BAD.

[BuddyBear]

It's doable, but it is hard....real hard. Even so, only a minute fraction of the working population can do it. You have to be real good to do this for a living.....

Van....any chance you know the fail rate for professional gamblers? I would imagine it is relatively high. Thanks...

[Sam Odom]

With 7-10% vig and 20-35% taxes on winnings they must be good, very very good.

What win % must one have to overcome -27%(tax and vig) vig?

[vanzack]

It's doable, but it is hard....real hard. Even so, only a minute fraction of the working population can do it. You have to be real good to do this for a living.....

Van....any chance you know the fail rate for professional gamblers? I would imagine it is relatively high. Thanks...

Nah, I dont know.

Gambling is a solitary lifestyle for the most part. Your neighbor could be one and you would never know it. My neighbors have no idea.

So its really hard to get any idea about reality. The original poster of this thread is making an assumption based on his personal experience, as am I. There really is no reality because the gambler is forced underground by social pressure.

Im just a normal guy that happens to know a few other gamblers. 99% of the people I know think I have a real job.

[vanzack]

What win % must one have to overcome -27%(tax and vig) vig?

You only have to overcome enough to win money. It is a misnomer to think that taxes decrease your chances of winning.

Taxes decrease the amount of money you win.

Taxes do not make you a loser from a winner, you have to win to pay taxes.

So you win less, but if you win consistently you still win.

[vanzack]

You only have to overcome enough to win money. It is a misnomer to think that taxes decrease your chances of winning.

Taxes decrease the amount of money you win.

Taxes do not make you a loser from a winner, you have to win to pay taxes.

So you win less, but if you win consistently you still win.

That sounds confusing.

In other words, taxes and vig are two totally seperate things. You only pay taxes if you beat the vig, and taxes only reduce the amount of money you win.

[trustbutverify]

Question: if you declare as a pro- can you be taxed on net profits? As you can speculating on on the market.

[Sam Odom]

You only have to overcome enough to win money. It is a misnomer to think that taxes decrease your chances of winning.

Taxes decrease the amount of money you win.

Taxes do not make you a loser from a winner, you have to win to pay taxes.

So you win less, but if you win consistently you still win.

Come on...

Betting -125 vig on a straight bet doesnt matter either if you win

[vanzack]

Question: if you declare as a pro- can you be taxed on net profits? As you can speculating on on the market.

Yes.

Not only can you net out your "winning sessions" from your "losing sessions", you can deduct expenses like travel, computer, etc.

Downside is that you pay self employment taxes (ss, fica etc 15.2% I believe on the first 80K).

The IRS also holds you to a standard in order to declare professional. Was it your only income? Did you go about it in a way to make money, like a businesss? Did you keep records like a business?

[vanzack]

Come on...

Betting -125 vig on a straight bet doesnt matter either if you win

No, its really quite different.

I think your question was to come up with a percentage you had to go in order to beat vig and taxes.

Well, that percentage at -110 is 53% or higher. If you are lower than that you arent paying taxes, and if you are higher you are making LESS.

So lets take a guy who bets 20K per game, and goes 54%. He might clear 250K before taxes and 175K after taxes. He still went 54% and made what most people would consider to be a living.

Thats how professionals make money, and this thread is about professionals. Taxes just eat in to profits, but like any business you have to beat the vig in order to pay taxes.

[trustbutverify]

Thats what i thought. Now if we could just find a way to get 20k down on every bet inthe current climate, not get cut off or collared, and actually have our winnings returned in a timely fashion...

[vanzack]

Thats what i thought. Now if we could just find a way to get 20k down on every bet inthe current climate, not get cut off or collared, and actually have our winnings returned in a timely fasion...

Exactly the problem.

But it wasnt a month ago..... and hopefully wont be a couple of months from now.

[trustbutverify]

from your lips to gods ears

[Jay Edgar]

Thats what i thought. Now if we could just find a way to get 20k down on every bet inthe current climate, not get cut off or collared, and actually have our winnings returned in a timely fashion...

New Zealand,
I read on this very board today.


To me the key words in the thread title are the last three.

[trustbutverify]

New Zealand,
I read on this very board today.


To me the key words in the thread title are the last three.

I'll meet you there gman. We can start a small pro- cappers enclave.

[Wheell]

What makes NZ so special?

[BuddyBear]

I'd love to visit New Zeeland one day....

[degenerate#1]

What kind of win percentage would you say the pros have?

[EBone]

I think a good rule of thumb is this:

I think a nice comfortable lifestyle is about $100K per year. For example, if you bet 1000 games in one year, bet all of them for one unit, had an average vig on those 1000 bets of -110 and hit at a 55% clip then the math looks something like this:


550 wins
450 losses X 1.1 (vig) =495 losses

Equals 55 units up for the year. So you'd have to bet $2000 per game to make $110K per year gambling. My guess is that you'd need a 10 unit bankroll to make that happen. So you'd need $20K to start out.

So, if you could ensure that you could pick at a 55% clip, shop lines very well before the Pinnacle/Neteller debacle and have the jack to make it happen, then it is certainly possible to be a professional gambler and make a comfortable living.

The biggest kicker is that 55% clip or the knack to go hard and win on games you are more confident in than others. I think 55% is doable but you have to work very hard to keep that percentage consistent.



E

[durito]

I don't see how taxes are relevant at all here. Everyone that works/has income payes taxes.

The issue with being a professional is consitantly winning enough to support yourself. But, if you can do it, it's no different than having a regular job.

That said, I don't see why anyone with any significant gambling income would want to live in the US right now.

[trustbutverify]

I think a good rule of thumb is this:

I think a nice comfortable lifestyle is about $100K per year. For example, if you bet 1000 games in one year, bet all of them for one unit, had an average vig on those 1000 bets of -110 and hit at a 55% clip then the math looks something like this:


550 wins
450 losses X 1.1 (vig) =495 losses

Equals 55 units up for the year. So you'd have to bet $2000 per game to make $110K per year gambling. My guess is that you'd need a 10 unit bankroll to make that happen. So you'd need $20K to start out.

So, if you could ensure that you could pick at a 55% clip, shop lines very well before the Pinnacle/Neteller debacle and have the jack to make it happen, then it is certainly possible to be a professional gambler and make a comfortable living.

The biggest kicker is that 55% clip or the knack to go hard and win on games you are more confident in than others. I think 55% is doable but you have to work very hard to keep that percentage consistent.



E

IMO - having a betsize of 10% BR is death. The drawdowns will finish you. I believe in a min 50 unit roll- and I'd really like 100.

[durito]

I think a good rule of thumb is this:

I think a nice comfortable lifestyle is about $100K per year. For example, if you bet 1000 games in one year, bet all of them for one unit, had an average vig on those 1000 bets of -110 and hit at a 55% clip then the math looks something like this:


550 wins
450 losses X 1.1 (vig) =495 losses

Equals 55 units up for the year. So you'd have to bet $2000 per game to make $110K per year gambling. My guess is that you'd need a 10 unit bankroll to make that happen. So you'd need $20K to start out.

So, if you could ensure that you could pick at a 55% clip, shop lines very well before the Pinnacle/Neteller debacle and have the jack to make it happen, then it is certainly possible to be a professional gambler and make a comfortable living.

The biggest kicker is that 55% clip or the knack to go hard and win on games you are more confident in than others. I think 55% is doable but you have to work very hard to keep that percentage consistent.



E

This strategy leaves you a 99.5% chance of going broke over the course of 1,000 bets and a .2% chance of hitting your target bankroll of $130,000.

You are playing way too much per game with that bankroll. If you really want to make $110,000 a year and are a 55% capper and are playing 1,000 games a year and want to bet $2,000 a game, I'd suggest a starting bankroll of atleast $100,000. $200,000 would be much better. Even then you only have a 43.7% chance of making $110,000 in a year, but your chance of going broke is 0.

[Sam Odom]

365 bets (1 bet per day avg) @ $5000.00 each (1/4 million bankroll)

55% winners

win 200 x 5000 = 1,000,000

lose 165 x 5500 = -907,500

pre taxed net = +92,500

Taxed @ 25% -23,125

After tax = +69,375

after churning $1,825,000 i only get 3.80% return winning at 55%

whereas if done in the dark(no tax) I get a 5.07% return on the 1.8mil dollars I churned through the books.

BIG DIFFERENCE


.

[Sam Odom]

btw-- I think finding 365 bets to make in a yr aint that easy either.

[trustbutverify]

Listen- I dont wanna pay tax. I'd rather keep it all. But i can deal with paying income tax on profits. What I'm worried about is if the government decides to do what you suggested in your opening post. If they decide to load tax and surcharges on every winning ticket- they could push the vig up to track levels. That scares me.