CBB

[unde0087]

SMU @ Cal under 153

I am posting last play of the night for me. I believe this total is too high here. Cal is not what you would call an offensive juggernaut and has struggled to score 60 points vs upper tier ACC teams. I would suspect to see this total in the mid 140s by the end. SMU on the road playing a late night game across the country. I doubt we see them explode for over 80 points which I would assume would have to happen for these two to get to the mid 150s. Barring an epic shooting night from Cal I can see this going about how the first meeting went (65-76).

[Easy-Rider 66]

your take makes sense. tailed. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SMU @ Cal under 153

I am posting last play of the night for me. I believe this total is too high here. Cal is not what you would call an offensive juggernaut and has struggled to score 60 points vs upper tier ACC teams. I would suspect to see this total in the mid 140s by the end. SMU on the road playing a late night game across the country. I doubt we see them explode for over 80 points which I would assume would have to happen for these two to get to the mid 150s. Barring an epic shooting night from Cal I can see this going about how the first meeting went (65-76).

71 pts @half. GL, unde.

[unde0087]

71 pts @half. GL, unde.

Ya, it was a bit rough of a start as SMU shot the lights out hitting 5-5 from 3 in the first few minutes. Since then though game following a good pattern.

[unde0087]

Well this play is in trouble. Zero defense now and both hitting every shot they put up.

[stevenash]

SMU @ Cal under 153

You got a better number than I did,
I'm on the under 152.5 using the same logic.

I'm surprised Cal is still in this one, only five pts. down with 8 minutes left.

[unde0087]

Well I was wondering how this 2nd half would play out. Under has no chance refs took over the game. 18 fouls call in first 11 minutes. I was talking to the group about this play. Thought the line was way too high, even said it was probably a trap. Now I see why I was thinking that.

[stevenash]

Keep short arming those bunnies like that we still may have a shot at this Unde.

[unde0087]

Keep short arming those bunnies like that we still may have a shot at this Unde.

No bro, there will be 50+ free throws attempted by the end of this. 41 already, you don't win unders with the refs calling 40+ fouls in a game no matter what the total is. We move on

[unde0087]

Nasher, sad card tomorrow. My God it is just a sad day for CBB.

[unde0087]

Some unreal stats, 42 points off turnovers, 42 fouls with 35 points off of 52 attempts from the line. Not exactly what you are looking for when betting an under.

[stevenash]

Well I was wondering how this 2nd half would play out. Under has no chance refs took over the game. 18 fouls call in first 11 minutes.

Once upon a time when your pal Nasher had a full set of hair, and the T-Rex roamed Daddy Nasher's backyard grazing for grass I was an errand boy for "Buzzy the Bookie"

Buzz taught me a lot of things you'll never find in any picture book.
I was helping out Buzzy answering phones watching a crappy Boston College hoops game that was on in the 'office'
About two minutes into the second half there had been two touch fouls called already away from the ball.

Buzzy says to me with that nasty ass White Owl cigar dangling from his lips "Billy, pay attention to those early in the half foul calls, especially those away from the ball, that's a red flare saying this score is being manipulated"

[unde0087]

Once upon a time when your pal Nasher had a full set of hair, and the T-Rex roamed Daddy Nasher's backyard grazing for grass I was an errand boy for "Buzzy the Bookie"

Buzz taught me a lot of things you'll never find in any picture book.
I was helping out Buzzy answering phones watching a crappy Boston College hoops game that was on in the 'office'
About two minutes into the second half there had been two touch fouls called already away from the ball.

Buzzy says to me with that nasty ass White Owl cigar dangling from his lips "Billy, pay attention to those early in the half foul calls, especially those away from the ball, that's a red flare saying this score is being manipulated"

That is what I was referring to earlier. It always intrigues me watching a game like this where I believed the total was well over what it should have been then see the refs call the game the way they did. I mean I have watched hundreds of games this season. Can't remember watching one that fouls were called as they were. Mostly I have found that refs have let teams bang away at each other down low and hand check. This was a big outlier for me so it makes me wonder. But that is how it goes sometimes. Just makes me laugh, I was talking about this exact thing with the group prior to this game. I should have listened to my gut and stayed away.

[MalikHusam]

That is what I was referring to earlier. It always intrigues me watching a game like this where I believed the total was well over what it should have been then see the refs call the game the way they did. I mean I have watched hundreds of games this season. Can't remember watching one that fouls were called as they were. Mostly I have found that refs have let teams bang away at each other down low and hand check. This was a big outlier for me so it makes me wonder. But that is how it goes sometimes. Just makes me laugh, I was talking about this exact thing with the group prior to this game. I should have listened to my gut and stayed away.

Wouldn't it make sense to unload on the over LIVE early in the second half? What was the total line after 4-5 minutes played in the 2H?

[unde0087]

Wouldn't it make sense to unload on the over LIVE early in the second half? What was the total line after 4-5 minutes played in the 2H?

I don't chase. A play is a play win or lose. Plus in this case SMU turned the ball over several times early 2nd half and Cal racked up a ton of points immediately so the live over went to 160. I am not going to middle myself and lose double when I already had a winning night going into this game. Still with all of this the under had a chance at the end. I mean at the half, even with Cal getting a load of points from the line, the under was ahead. They needed 83. I am willing to bet if you look at how many times a Cal game went over 83 points for a 2nd half this season it is a very small percentage especially facing an upper tier ACC team. It was the perfect storm of turnovers and refs calling everything a foul. It happens and you move on.

[unde0087]

Today

Iowa/NW
over 71 (1H)
over 150.5

Purdue -5.5

[MalikHusam]

I don't chase. A play is a play win or lose. Plus in this case SMU turned the ball over several times early 2nd half and Cal racked up a ton of points immediately so the live over went to 160. I am not going to middle myself and lose double when I already had a winning night going into this game. Still with all of this the under had a chance at the end. I mean at the half, even with Cal getting a load of points from the line, the under was ahead. They needed 83. I am willing to bet if you look at how many times a Cal game went over 83 points for a 2nd half this season it is a very small percentage especially facing an upper tier ACC team. It was the perfect storm of turnovers and refs calling everything a foul. It happens and you move on.

Perfect storm - ok.

But I thought you insinuated the refs were in on it, basically fixing the game to the over. Am I wrong?

In your mind, what's the chance that the fix was in? (that the refs had a job to do for a betting syndicate, let's say)

In my limited experience I'd say the answer for an average bettor who had Under (like you did) would be 20-30%, while only 5-10% of Over bettors would suspect foul play - simply because they would be busy petting themselves on the back for picking the right bet or 'running gud'.

GL with Purdue today, I think I'm tailing!

[unde0087]

Perfect storm - ok.

But I thought you insinuated the refs were in on it, basically fixing the game to the over. Am I wrong?

In your mind, what's the chance that the fix was in? (that the refs had a job to do for a betting syndicate, let's say)

In my limited experience I'd say the answer for an average bettor who had Under (like you did) would be 20-30%, while only 5-10% of Over bettors would suspect foul play - simply because they would be busy petting themselves on the back for picking the right bet or 'running gud'.

GL with Purdue today, I think I'm tailing!

I will say this about that game. I can't say for certain the refs were in on a "fix" but I know that game was called miles different from the average game you will watch up to this point of the season which was about the only way that over hit. But that isn't going to make me start to fire away live and get away from the way I have played this whole season. It is what it is. Once I hit accept on the play I was in for the long hall, like every other play this season.

Good luck on your plays

[MalikHusam]

I will say this about that game. I can't say for certain the refs were in on a "fix" but I know that game was called miles different from the average game you will watch up to this point of the season which was about the only way that over hit. But that isn't going to make me start to fire away live and get away from the way I have played this whole season. It is what it is. Once I hit accept on the play I was in for the long hall, like every other play this season.

Good luck on your plays

Last question on this. Have you ever actively searched for info on CBB referees and/or considered their tendencies in betting the games? I'm not advanced enough to even care, but it's easy to find out NBA refs and the relevant data... do you think people out there are modeling games and including refereeing outliers, like in this Cal/SMU game, into their model?

[unde0087]

Last question on this. Have you ever actively searched for info on CBB referees and/or considered their tendencies in betting the games? I'm not advanced enough to even care, but it's easy to find out NBA refs and the relevant data... do you think people out there are modeling games and including refereeing outliers, like in this Cal/SMU game, into their model?

No I do not look at refs in decision making of games. I guess it would be a possibility but for the most part all the games in cbb are pretty much called the same way imo. The other night was the only time this year I felt it was out of control. I mean you get a bit of a change on certain teams. For example, Virginia in past years or Houston. They have the stigma of being really tough defensively so for some reason in their games refs let them be way more physical then in most. But you pretty much know that going into a play if you are on a team like that.

[MalikHusam]

No I do not look at refs in decision making of games. I guess it would be a possibility but for the most part all the games in cbb are pretty much called the same way imo. The other night was the only time this year I felt it was out of control. I mean you get a bit of a change on certain teams. For example, Virginia in past years or Houston. They have the stigma of being really tough defensively so for some reason in their games refs let them be way more physical then in most. But you pretty much know that going into a play if you are on a team like that.

Right, and if the market knows, it's already baked into the line.

Like the Legion of Boom defense (Seahawks) would foul on every snap and get away with more fouls than any other NFL team in history (possibly). But refereeing was predictable, so I guess you could call that fair play.