Lost both my money lines tonight

durito · 09-11-09, 04:57 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

It's always entertaining to watch two posters talking to each other on completely different levels. It's pretty clear Raydog has no clue how Durito is using the term "efficient" and even the basic concept would pretty clearly be way over his head.

i can't even see straight at the moment

you start school yet?

donjuan · 09-11-09, 04:58 AM

you have to do some sort of capping in order to be a winner.

No you don't. You can easily make 100k+ in a year using a market based strategy (off numbers, basic strat teasers, etc.) alone. If you expand this to include props, many of which you can value using the market, you can make plenty more.

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:00 AM

you start school yet?

Yeah, pretty worthless but last semester so it's been pretty fun so far and it's good to be back in Boulder. The depressing part is having season tickets to watch Dan Hawkins coach, although the material on some of the CU forums has been pretty amusing.

durito · 09-11-09, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by raydog

durito, you arent telling me anything that i havent been doing for the last 8 years. you simply arent making a huge living off of beating numbers alone. just like tonight, you said you played pitt even though you think it was a bad # and a bad bet. you have to do some sort of capping in order to be a winner. you know this and im not sure why its even being debated. yes, its documented that beating the pinny # is profitable... if you pick the right games and you dont pick any wrong games and you have enough dough to handle the variance... so many variables. sure, its a grand idea on paper, but for the common gambler, making money isnt happening by beating the #s alone.

Again i'm not sure I follow. You can make a fine living if you are getting better #'s than the closing line on major sports at pinnacle. This often involves handicapping.. who do think is moving those lines? (hint it's people that are handicapping, usually in addition to modeling the sport)

But, you certainly don't have to handicap anything to be a winner. Just get in at the right price. This gets harder after you get kicked out of every square book, but there are other types of bets to make.

I have my best hold on stuff I price myself, but I'm sure as shit not going to attempt to beat the market on an NFL game anytime soon. There were a ridiculous number of props available to bet on this game tonight, some of which were horrendously priced.

My pitt bet was essentially a steam play, I don't usually do that, but the book i bet wouldn't move and pinny had -300.... It ended up going the other way and I got a shit number, it happens.

durito · 09-11-09, 05:05 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Yeah, pretty worthless but last semester so it's been pretty fun so far and it's good to be back in Boulder. The depressing part is having season tickets to watch Dan Hawkins coach, although the material on some of the CU forums has been pretty amusing.

Yea I was a huge buff fan growing up, we we're consistently top 10 then for a while and then my first couple years in school we started the slide. Got that one Big 12 title with Barnett though.

Even that year though the students didn't care. My freshman year they still had a lottery for student tickets. By my 6th year (yea lol) you could buy the season student tickets mid season. Everyone left at halftime regardless of the score.

Was hoping Hawkins would get it back going, but he seems to have made it worse.

I have Toledo +4 tomorrow

raydog · 09-11-09, 05:05 AM

thanks for joining don. i figured another math guy would chime in and have duritos back. sorry im not a huge math guy.. not that i care. my point is that nobody is making a living off of betting +270 dogs. i dont give a shit if pinny or any other book closed at +250. call it getting good value or not, you guys can argue this shit till you are blue in the face. if you are lucky enough to pick the right ones, im happy for you , the majority is losing their ass and will continue. i dont mind one bit

raydog · 09-11-09, 05:09 AM

not sure why it dbl posted

durito · 09-11-09, 05:12 AM

I don't follow. How can you say no +270 dogs have value?

Surely, some +270 dogs have value. From a bankroll growth standpoint I'd surely prefer the same edge on at -270 favorite, but so what. Sometimes you find the value at +270.

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:18 AM

i figured another math guy would chime in and have duritos back.

It's not about having anyone's back, but rather about disseminating correct information.

my point is that nobody is making a living off of betting +270 dogs.

Well that would be a pretty narrow scope to bet as there aren't very many +270 dogs each week. But of course these can be excellent bets and can be horrible bets. But if you get +270 and it closes at +250 at Pinnacle and you do this on a regular basis, you're going to be a long term winner. The NFL market simply is pretty efficient.

call it getting good value or not, you guys can argue this shit till you are blue in the face.

Out of curiosity, how many books have booted you or cut your limits?

if you are lucky enough to pick the right ones, im happy for you , the majority is losing their ass and will continue.

Lucky enough to pick the right ones? LOL.

durito · 09-11-09, 05:21 AM

prop limits cut before the nfl season starts =

especially at a book i should kill

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:23 AM

Sportsbook or Bodog...my money is on Bodog.

raydog · 09-11-09, 05:23 AM

not saying that none have value. im saying that just because you beat the closing number on a big dog, doesnt necessarily mean it has enough value to be played. people look at a big number and think, in their gambling mind(which is typically a losing one) that the number has value. and they end up making a bad bet because they "think" they see value.

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:28 AM

not saying that none have value. im saying that just because you beat the closing number on a big dog, doesnt necessarily mean it has enough value to be played.

And I'm saying that you're completely wrong.

people look at a big number and think, in their gambling mind(which is typically a losing one) that the number has value. and they end up making a bad bet because they "think" they see value.

This has nothing to do with the first part of your post. But yes, this is why pretty much no Super Bowl props have any value if they include a + and the -500 stuff tends to have a lot of value.

durito · 09-11-09, 05:35 AM

sportsbook

4 years since i played there and 5 days of mlb props got me $100 on virtually everything across the board but full game bets/// lame, i thought i'd last the football season at least, i did just get kicked out of one of their sister books so perhaps that did it

is bodog cutting prop limits past their 100-300 or whatever they are these days?

durito · 09-11-09, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

And I'm saying that you're completely wrong.

This has nothing to do with the first part of your post. But yes, this is why pretty much no Super Bowl props have any value if they include a + and the -500 stuff tends to have a lot of value.

5dimes had a bunch of super bowl type props tonight. No OT, no Safety --- they were actually priced reasonably, or even shaded the other way.

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:40 AM

Lame.

is bodog cutting prop limits past their 100-300 or whatever they are these days?

I'm at 100 for all Bodog props now. They had my hockey props down to 50 but strangely put it at 100 at some point in the playoffs.

5dimes had a bunch of super bowl type props tonight. No OT, no Safety --- they were actually priced reasonably, or even shaded the other way.

Interesting. If shaded the other way it's almost certainly down to incompetence, much like when Bodog was offering +1200 on a SHG to be scored in various NHL playoff games.

donjuan · 09-11-09, 05:41 AM

Lame.

is bodog cutting prop limits past their 100-300 or whatever they are these days?

I'm at 100 for all Bodog props now. They had my hockey props down to 50 but strangely put it at 100 at some point in the playoffs.

5dimes had a bunch of super bowl type props tonight. No OT, no Safety --- they were actually priced reasonably, or even shaded the other way.

Interesting. If shaded the other way it's almost certainly down to incompetence, much like when Bodog was offering +1200 on a SHG to be scored in various NHL playoff games.

20Four7 · 09-11-09, 05:42 AM

Beating numbers alone will make you money if you have enough to handle the swings and bet wisely. I'm just sorry my mouse finger was quick enough to grab 280 at matchbook. Any time I figure a team is 40% to win and I can get 250+ I'm there. It wasn't a bad bet, just a bad result from a team who could have won it.

ATX · 09-13-09, 12:32 AM

crazy

20Four7 · 09-13-09, 02:14 AM

Raydog, no one said anything about not capping... I capped the game and my blog actually said stay away. The line I got was about value.

If you got a team that's +1200 with a 14% chance of winning based on your capping do you play it? If your getting 10-1 for a straight flush draw in poker do you play it? If your getting 3-1 for a horse that should be 8 to 5 do you bet it. It's all the same, you find edges and you play. If you cap correctly, evalutate the bets correctly you will win...... or as LT profits said, play as many rogue lines as you can find.