Ravens vs Steelers - Contender vs Pretender?

[SBR Andy]

Battle for top spot in the AFC North on Sunday when the 7-2 Steelers host the 7-3 Ravens. Baltimore is a -3/-3.5 favorite depending on the book with a total of 48.5 - the highest in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Line History

Matchup Stats

The Ravens are battled tested while the jury is still out on Pittsburgh with Russell Wilson at the helm. Until they beat a legit contender, I'll bite on the Ravens. Half on -3 (-115) and half on -3.5 (+105).

Which way are you guys going here? Are the Steelers for real?

[Slurry Pumper]

Well history shows that the records for this rivalry don't matter. It always is a battle til the end. That's why I'm taking the gift +3.5 with the Steelers at home. I also like the over believe it or not, but only for some lunch money.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Take the dog or nothing when those two meet.

[SBR Andy]

Ravens vs Steelers player prop bets, via SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Mark Andrews anytime touchdown scorer (+210 bet365)

Derrick Henry Under 87.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365)

[Getch13]

Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 11/17 @ 1pm
POTD: George Pickens Longest Rec o25.5 Yds (-120) 4u to win 7.3u
Write Up:
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll have noticed that Mr. Unlimmmmited has been putting on a master class in throwing the deep ball. His favorite deep receiver has been by far George Pickens. In the three games they’ve played together this year Russell’s three longest completions have been to Pickens: 44 yds vs NYJ, 43 yds vs NYG, and 34 vs WAS.
Russell is 2nd in the league for Deep Pass Attempt % per dropback at 17.6%. Russell is 1st in Deep Pass Completion % at 53.3%, 2nd in Yards/Attempt. He has a PFF Deep Pass Rating of 90.7% ranking 9th best amongst QBs. Wilson has the 2nd lowest Time To Throw for Deep Passes at 2.76 seconds/attempt. 35% of Wilson’s total passing yds are from Deep Passes. Russell ranks 1st in Big Time Throw % (yes, that’s the name of the PFF stat) at 7.9%. He also has a 91.6 Passer Rating when targeting the Deep Left part of the field. A Deep Pass is defined as 20+ yds.
George Pickens is Tied-5th in Deep Targets (17) amongst WR league wide and is 1st in Deep Receptions (11). That is a 65% Deep Pass catch rate. He averages 33.6 Yards/Deep Rec (including games with Justin Fields at QB). He shares a four-way tie at 1st for PFF’s Deep Rec Receiver Rating (99.9) with Deebo Samuel, Jayden Reed and Terry McLaurin. He has no drops amongst those 17 Deep Targets (no ball has hit his hands that he failed to catch). His Average Depth of Target when deep is 31.9 yds, average deep catch depth is 34.6 yds and has an average 3.5 YAC/Rec.
In their last three games together, Wilson connected Deep with Pickens twice vs Jets 44, 37yds on 4 Deep Tgts (line closed at 22.5), once vs Giants 43yds on 1 Deep Tgt (line closed at 24.5), and three times vs Commanders 26, 34, 24yds on 4 Deep Tgts (line closed at 25.5).
The Ravens D is well known for their struggles against deep passes and playmakers (see CIN vs BAL last week) ranking 26th in Coverage. Pickens will be lining up opposite of CB Brandon Stephens. Stephens’ PFF grade is 50.2 overall, ranking 102/109 CBs. His coverage grade is worse at 47.2 (103/109 CBs). When targeted this season Stephens has allowed 40/60 rec/tgt, 555 yds at an average 13.9 yds/rec. He has only Forced Incompletions on 7 of those 60 tgts (12%). Stephens’ help over the top isn’t any better in S Marcus Williams. Williams’ PFF grade is 42.8 overall and 37.1 in coverage ranking dead last in both categories amongst Safeties (87/87). Williams has allowed 14/17 rec/tgts, 247 yds averaging 17.6 yds/rec. Williams has only 2 Forced Incompletions on 17 targets (12%). Neither Stephens nor Williams have any interceptions on the year. Pickens matched up against Stephens once before: 2023 Week 5 when he went 3/4, 57 yds, 23 Long with Kenny Pickett at QB.
One area that may sour this pick is the Ravens Pass Rush which ranks 11th. This is compounded by the Steelers having a weak right side on the O Line. The Steelers have been without their starting RG Daniels since W4. Both the RG and RT for PITT are subpar. Lining up at L Edge opposite of them is Kyle Van Noy who has 7 sacks (T-6th) this year and is graded 78.1 overall by PFF (17/112 Edge). The NYG have the best pass rush that Wilson has faced (ranked 6th) and he was only sacked 4 times. In that game Wilson and Pickens connected on a 43 yard longest reception.

I played this at over 27.5 -120 DK's

[SBR Andy]

Looking like old Steelers/Ravens matchups. Scoring at a premium.