Nashy, you see Tennessee's 9th inning comeback?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Down 11-8 going to Bottom 9th. Started out w/ FlaSt's defensive replacement CF mis-playing a deep drive. Tough play but he could have had it.

Then the FlaSt bullpen un-raveled. TENN has a ton of pro hitting talent. And they feasted.

4 in the bottom to win 12-11.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, Q to the Forum:

*Did anyone see Coll WS totals today?

...The lines seemed to come up so late.

[stevenash]

Yeah, I saw that, insane.
I still think Vol's win it all.

UConn did the state proud knocking off Duke and Oklahoma before getting croaked by Fla. State

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yeah, I saw that, insane.
I still think Vol's win it all.

UConn did the state proud knocking off Duke and Oklahoma before getting croaked by Fla. State

Yes, Conn played well. This TENN team has a ton of offensive talent. Many will be drafted in 1st three rounds.

Was looking at a play for tonite, but I pass. Oregon was way ahead of TexAM in Gm2, but then got pounded.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nashy, you have any info for me on the likely starting pitchers for tonite? Thanks!

[stevenash]

Seminoles game 1

If you feel like laying 2:1, Vols game 2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The P matchup = Lamkin (TxAM) vs Peterson (Fla). Same as the opening game.

1) I would expect the Aggies to go with a 3x3 approach. Three pitchers for 3 Inning each.
2) Fla has been playing games thru the backside of the bracket. But they did get thru this morning's game w/o burning any big names. Surely it's all hands on deck in an elimination game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, we get the Finals matchup that looked pre-destined. Two powerhouse teams: TENN vs TexAM.

There are a lot of similarities between these two teams. I'll detail it more before SAT.

A few subtle notes that could be deciding factors:

1) TexAM is dealing with a few injuries:
...Montgomery is out, he was one of their top players. Slugger Laviolette is dealing with a hamstring injury, I'm sure he'll play but maybe he has to DH. Laviolette is limited in his running, and he could be a liability on defensive range + running the bases.

2) Prager stands out as the best Aggie starting pitcher:
...If I can help it, I don't want to be going against this guy when he starts. He's going to be a 2nd-round pick.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will start my preview of the Final series. Let's consider who shows up on the Top 100 Prospects list:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/

TEX AM:
8) Montgomery (OF) - Injured in post-season. He is OUT for the series.
59) Prager (LHP) - I expect him to start Game Two.
100) Cortez (RHP) - He's only started a few games. I expect him to be a Key Reliever in Game One.

TENN:
25) Moore (2B)
26) Amick (3B)
63) Beam (RHP). I expect him to start Game One.
64) Burke (1B)
65) Tears (OF)
72) Dreiling (OF)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Both teams advanced via the Minimum three games. This is key because there's a three-day layoff. Both bullpens should feel well-rested.

Way I see it on the Pitching matchups:
Game One: TexAM (??/Cortez/Aschenbeck) vs Tenn (Beam)
...Aggie manager will be looking for someone to get some outs. Cortez started only three games, and Aschenbeck is a LH-horse.
...Beam is a projected 2nd-round pick. Based on rest days, he looks like the Vols' likely Game One starter.

Game Two: TexAM (Prager) vs Tenn (??/Snead/Causey)
...Prager has been the Aggie ace. Oregon got to him. But he comes off a stellar effort.
...I look for TENN to take the Bullpen by Committee approach in Game Two.

Game Three: TexAM (??/Cortez/Aschenbeck) vs Tenn (Sechrist)
...I think the Aggie manager believes in Cortez + Aschenbeck. Will be all hands on deck, but he believes in these two the most.
...Sechrist is a very solid LH-starter. He comes off a very sharp performance. Four days rest would have him ready on Monday.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

***EDIT

Game Three: TexAM (Lamkin/Cortez/Aschenbeck) vs Tenn (Sechrist)
...This is actually a big key. Lamkin threw two good games against Florida. He is now in good form.
...Sechrist is more solid than Lamkin. But Lamkin + two stud relievers is close to being on par with Sechrist.

[SundanceKid]

Tennessee won the only meeting this season in the SEC tournament. If the Vols score 6 runs+ they will win easily each night. I do not see A&M scoring 7+. This series will come down to 2 outs, who can get off the field with that 3rd out. Who can keep the bats going and drive in runs with 2 outs. I am from Knoxville, went to the University of Tennessee and personally always see The Vols as "Masters of Failure." I hope they prove me wrong... "Stroke Me, Stroke me."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Both teams advanced via the Minimum three games. This is key because there's a three-day layoff. Both bullpens should feel well-rested.

Way I see it on the Pitching matchups:
Game One: TexAM (??/Cortez/Aschenbeck) vs Tenn (Beam)
...Aggie manager will be looking for someone to get some outs. Cortez started only three games, and Aschenbeck is a LH-horse.
...Beam is a projected 2nd-round pick. Based on rest days, he looks like the Vols' likely Game One starter.

Game Two: TexAM (Prager) vs Tenn (??/Snead/Causey)
...Prager has been the Aggie ace. Oregon got to him. But he comes off a stellar effort.
...I look for TENN to take the Bullpen by Committee approach in Game Two.

Game Three: TexAM (??/Cortez/Aschenbeck) vs Tenn (Sechrist)
...I think the Aggie manager believes in Cortez + Aschenbeck. Will be all hands on deck, but he believes in these two the most.
...Sechrist is a very solid LH-starter. He comes off a very sharp performance. Four days rest would have him ready on Monday.

Wanted to update this. I was off in my assessment a little.

*Prager started Game One. TENN pitching was more like what I listed for Game Two w/ Causey as the 1st reliever.

*Aggies win Game One. Prager is surely done for the series, I'd think! Aschenbeck is surely burnt for Game Two.

*The Game Two pitching matchup is going to look more like what I anticipated for Game One. BEAM vs ??/Cortez.
...The Game Two pitching matchup is surely more favorable for TENN. Aggies will be banking on Cortez to show his pro form. They'll ride him as long as he can go, maybe 5+ innings.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few personnel notes for Game 2:

1) Stewart/Aschenbeck likely burnt for Gm 2.
2) AM offense does have some issues. Montgomery OUT. Laviolette + Schott playing thru leg injuries.
3) Shane Sdao would have been the likely Gm 2 starting P, but he's OUT for the season. Cortez might start, as they don't have many options.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm gonna call out this website for putting out dog-shit information:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennessee-vs-texas-am-game-2-odds-predictions-probable-pitchers-college-world-series-final/

He lists the Tale of the Tape for Beam vs Sdao.
...That's great. Except for the fact that Sdao is Out for the Season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Who is Texas A&M starting against Tennessee?

The Aggies are starting senior Zane Badmaev, who is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA this season. It is his first start of the season. He has 16 appearances.
Badmaev has struck out 27 in 23⅓ innings. He has thrown one inning in the postseason and has not pitched in the CWS.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Who is Texas A&M starting against Tennessee?

The Aggies are starting senior Zane Badmaev, who is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA this season. It is his first start of the season. He has 16 appearances.
Badmaev has struck out 27 in 23⅓ innings. He has thrown one inning in the postseason and has not pitched in the CWS.

Don't really like how the TxAM manager handled Badmaev. Should have let me get thru the bottom of the TENN lineup. They needed to get two full innings out of Badmaev.

Up 1-0. But Cortez pitch count is rising. And they don't really have anyone to finish it off on the back-end.

[Doug tushyterror]

Don't really like how the TxAM manager handled Badmaev. Should have let me get thru the bottom of the TENN lineup. They needed to get two full innings out of Badmaev.

Up 1-0. But Cortez pitch count is rising. And they don't really have anyone to finish it off on the back-end.

1st & potentially last college baseball game I bet this yr if TEN loses Chucky. Got them at -210 before they closed at -270. Freeroll with the golf t10 hitting so not exactly sweating it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Holding the +180 A&M Series ticket going into Game 3. Feel pretty good about my chances.

If I was the TexAM manager, I would have handled my pitching staff differently. See post 10:
*The Sdao injury was huge. He would have been an obvious starter.
*AM finished off their bracket quickly. I really think GAME ONE should have been the Bullpen by Committee game.
*He knew that Prager was the one starter that he could count on for a longer start.
*He should have relied on Badmaev for three more outs. You knew that the Cortez pitch count would mount. And he'd be left with no good options on the back-end. And that's exactly what happened. He had to pitch youngster Wilson, who was over his head.
*Lamkin has pitched very well his L2 starts. I'll be looking for him to get in 4 or 5 solid innings. I don't think TENN likes facing LHPs as much.
*Aschenbeck is the horse in the bullpen. I foresee the Aggie pitching matchups going like this:
1) Lamkin for 4 or 5 Innings.
2) 1 or 2 Innings of very specific RH vs RH (or LH vs LH) matchups.
3) Aschenbeck for the L3 Innings. Ride him as long as you have to.

I likely won't bet Game 3 unless the +170 goes up a little.

[Doug tushyterror]

Holding the +180 A&M Series ticket going into Game 3. Feel pretty good about my chances.

If I was the TexAM manager, I would have handled my pitching staff differently. See post 10:
*The Sdao injury was huge. He would have been an obvious starter.
*AM finished off their bracket quickly. I really think GAME ONE should have been the Bullpen by Committee game.
*He knew that Prager was the one starter that he could count on for a longer start.
*He should have relied on Badmaev for three more outs. You knew that the Cortez pitch count would mount. And he'd be left with no good options on the back-end. And that's exactly what happened. He had to pitch youngster Wilson, who was over his head.
*Lamkin has pitched very well his L2 starts. I'll be looking for him to get in 4 or 5 solid innings. I don't think TENN likes facing LHPs as much.
*Aschenbeck is the horse in the bullpen. I foresee the Aggie pitching matchups going like this:
1) Lamkin for 4 or 5 Innings.
2) 1 or 2 Innings of very specific RH vs RH (or LH vs LH) matchups.
3) Aschenbeck for the L3 Innings. Ride him as long as you have to.

I likely won't bet Game 3 unless the +170 goes up a little.

I don't exactly follow the history of college baseball but kinda crazy to just find out that neither team has won a natty simply considering the pedigree of both school's athletic programs. Was gonna ride the Vols again tmrw figuring it's their time until I read the Aggie's are just as due.

[dollarbill]

I'll take the home team.....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't exactly follow the history of college baseball but kinda crazy to just find out that neither team has won a natty simply considering the pedigree of both school's athletic programs. Was gonna ride the Vols again tmrw figuring it's their time until I read the Aggie's are just as due.

Doug, there have been some Powerhouse Coll Base teams. Baseball is tricky. Things can happen in a short series.

TENN has definitely been the best team this season. But it's been > twenty years since the #1-ranked team won the Coll World Series.

I certainly wouldn't use loose view of it being "their time." If you read my details, I study these teams and make as precise a projection as possible. The first two games were not far from my assessment:
*I thought TxAM was > 50/50 in the Prager start.
*I thought TENN was a decent Fav w/ Beam vs ??/Cortez.

For Game 3 it's a question of TxAM getting 27 outs. Aschenbeck is probably the All-American reliever, he can get 9 outs. If Lamkin is sharp, he can get 12 outs. The other six outs are tougher to figure out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sechrist (TENN) is a stud:

https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/zander-sechrist/19648

Going to be tough to beat. Feel like the market line is about right. I'd probably price TENN to about -180 tonite.

[stevenash]

I have the Vols on a future.
I had Wake last year, that was a letdown.

[Doug tushyterror]

Doug, there have been some Powerhouse Coll Base teams. Baseball is tricky. Things can happen in a short series.

TENN has definitely been the best team this season. But it's been > twenty years since the #1-ranked team won the Coll World Series.

I certainly wouldn't use loose view of it being "their time." If you read my details, I study these teams and make as precise a projection as possible. The first two games were not far from my assessment:
*I thought TxAM was > 50/50 in the Prager start.
*I thought TENN was a decent Fav w/ Beam vs ??/Cortez.

For Game 3 it's a question of TxAM getting 27 outs. Aschenbeck is probably the All-American reliever, he can get 9 outs. If Lamkin is sharp, he can get 12 outs. The other six outs are tougher to figure out.

3-1 live bet..not a great line but it's gonna keep going up

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Doug, what is your Bankroll? $1Mill? Is it re-plenishible?

[Doug tushyterror]

Doug, what is your Bankroll? $1Mill? Is it re-plenishible?

Slightly less Chuckster. But I do have a combined 14k to win $3.7M in Korda/Saba Wimb Futures that I'm looking to cashout at the QF/SF stage for a healthy profit.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Whatever