SBR Poker - Psychology behind "the rig"?

[daneblazer]

Could there be something bigger than SBR Poker targeting liberals, creating action, and helping newbs win?

People often babble about "variance", but what exactly does it mean? Poker variance is the difference between your short term results and long term expectations.

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

Here is a link to a poker variance calculator. Let's take a typical winning SBR Poker player. We'll give him a win rate of 4bb/100. That means playing 1/2 NL a player can expect to win 4 big blinds per 100 hands, or $8. That's actually a solid win rate. Let's say you play often enough to log 1000 hands per week, so you put in roughly 4000 hands per month. (That's probably stretching it here).



As you can see, there's quite a bit of fluctuation even for a winning player.

Do one for a break even player at 0bb/100 and it's much, much worse.



So the better you are, the less variance you will see. The closer you are to being a break even player, the more variance you'll see. Also the worse you are, the less variance you'll see (You'll consistantly lose). So why does it seem like there are so many bad beats on SBR Poker? There isn't...it's all in your head.

But who are we kidding. It's rigged.

[k13]

I want to see my Expected Value Graph for SBR Poker.

Some people run so bad they'll never see enough hands in their life time for variance to even out.

All that stuff you posted is for cash games with rake where the average person can't even beat the rake let alone his opponents. No real rake in SBR tourneys.

You need a different graph that's in PokerTracker.

[eberetta1]

All that stuff you posted is for cash games with rake where the average person can't even beat the rake let alone his opponents.

Now that is one graph I would love to see, a graph that show the ratio of players that can beat the rake. I am thinking single digits here.

Sort of reminds me of the guy, Top 10 on the player of the year leaderboard with 2 million in winnings. He had spent 3 million in entry fees.

[RudyRuetigger]

Let's put it this way, if I don't finish 1st in the poker players championship, i will be releasing damaging info

[k13]

Now that is one graph I would love to see, a graph that show the ratio of players that can beat the rake. I am thinking single digits here.

Sort of reminds me of the guy, Top 10 on the player of the year leaderboard with 2 million in winnings. He had spent 3 million in entry fees.

They have them somewhere on 2plus2 forums.

[milwaukee mike]

i can remember some of the same logical arguments vs those that said there were house accounts at pokerstars, etc.

i would assume a lot of things in this world are rigged, for example a buddy of mine used to get paid by bars/strip clubs to run free trip drawings. he would usually pay someone $50 to pretend to win a $3k trip.
"come to our bar on new year's eve and someone will win an all-expense paid trip for 2 to cancun!"

yeah sure they will

[tto827]

i can remember some of the same logical arguments vs those that said there were house accounts at pokerstars, etc.

i would assume a lot of things in this world are rigged, for example a buddy of mine used to get paid by bars/strip clubs to run free trip drawings. he would usually pay someone $50 to pretend to win a $3k trip.
"come to our bar on new year's eve and someone will win an all-expense paid trip for 2 to cancun!"

yeah sure they will

Never thought of that, if you're questionable morally, this is a great marketing tool.

[Triple_D_Bet]

15 to go til PMs!

Those who think poker is rigged against them are usually right, just not in the way they think

[tatddy]

Those who think poker is rigged against them are usually right, just not in the way they think

7 posts? Don't get too obsessed here pal.

[milwaukee mike]

7 posts? Don't get too obsessed here pal.

7 posts and 10,000 points. that has to be some kind of record for points/posts

[daneblazer]

7 posts? Don't get too obsessed here pal.

Triple D been doing work since

[tatddy]

Triple D been doing work since

You're welcome. Some guys just need inspiration.

[Triple_D_Bet]

And to top it off I never got what I was going for with the 20 posts (was trying to send a PM to request a book)

[tatddy]

And to top it off I never got what I was going for with the 20 posts (was trying to send a PM to request a book)

Range poker book? Still need it?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i play online poker everyday for real money.

i always hear losers complaining about how rigged online poker is, not realizing how bad they play...

edit: not talking about superusers...

[daneblazer]

And to top it off I never got what I was going for with the 20 posts (was trying to send a PM to request a book)

Oops, guess that's my bad PM me your email address and I'll send it along with anything else you might want that I have.

[downsouth]

Oops, guess that's my bad PM me your email address and I'll send it along with anything else you might want that I have.

Be careful with what you offer, last time he requested I send him nudes of me with various domesticated creatures.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Range poker book? Still need it?

Nah, was a book about a poker pro or soemthing, a friend of a poster was askign if anyone wanted a copy and I thought I'd give it a read. I think it was just a scam to gte my email address though...I've been getting disturbing spam ever since from thatsyourdaddy69@imwithbrett.net

[k13]

I just played one day of Poker Stars, multi-tabling so lot of hands. I think I won 3 out a 1000 big hands/pots/all ins.

Makes SBR Poker look tame. As I type this AQ losses to A8.

Down 50 buy ins in one day playing perfect poker lol

Must be the reload bonus I took...

[TheMoneyShot]

I've concluded on one theory...

If you go all in (after the flop) and you are behind 1 on 1 with someone... the player who is behind that goes all in wins the hand 63% of the time.

[k13]

Another day at Poker Stars.

Won 2 hands out 1451.

Run good.

[k13]

Lost every single in one hour, every single one. Every time I was ahead. How is that even possible.

One in a trillion odds.

[k13]

Don't ever think SBR poker is that bad, just typical online bs.

Just lost another million hands in a row, not even exaggerating. Playing 10 tables at once.

There's no way I can lose 8 coin flips in a row if I tried all day in real life. Some how I can do it ever 5 minutes.

[k13]

Another 2 out on the river. 30 seconds later. again and again and again.
again

[k13]

I'm never playing again after my bonus is done. Fucken joke.

[k13]

Turn it on again for 15 minutes.

8 three outers in a row.

Unreal. Makes SBR look like a playground.

[k13]

qq vs 96o, flop 669

yeah, ok.

btw, the streak has not ended, twenty million bad beats in a row.

[daneblazer]

Lost every single in one hour, every single one. Every time I was ahead. How is that even possible.

One in a trillion odds.

Didn't even steal the blinds once?

[pavyracer]

Off course if you point this out to the poker stat gurus they will point out that you have to play 3 million hands to analyze stats. Sure someone give me $1 million dollars of their money and I will happily play 3 million hands to prove them they are wrong.

[k13]

Down 300 BI's in 3 days playing sng's/mtt's, think about how many that is.


Another 2 outer as I type this.

The "good beats" happen like once every 1000 hands while the bad beats every other hand.
Even though I was up five figures on PS a few years ago. That was still way under -EV and I played 2 million hands. So I quit.

[k13]

I could probably do better if I closed my eyes. That's how these euro retards play.

You US guys wish you could play again, fucken awful players. Too bad your hands won't hold up.

[easyliving]

great video. how do we avoid this loss aversion? it is inevitable to have big losses and indeed such losses drain a person out mentally and its very difficult to cope with them. I am trying to accept such losses and move on in betting as well but its never as easy as it sounds.

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

great video. how do we avoid this loss aversion? it is inevitable to have big losses and indeed such losses drain a person out mentally and its very difficult to cope with them. I am trying to accept such losses and move on in betting as well but its never as easy as it sounds.

All true but if you're a BONA FIDE winning poker player/bettor (tracked) than knowing that for a fact will help you "avoid this loss aversion".

Make sense?

[easyliving]

All true but if you're a BONA FIDE winning poker player/bettor (tracked) than knowing that for a fact will help you "avoid this loss aversion".

Make sense?

thats the thing. I have been running great for the last couple months or so but who is to say the run will continue. I can go cold and start losing again. What I'm trying to say is their is no guarantee that no matter how good you are you can never be sure that you will continue winning

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

thats the thing. I have been running great for the last couple months or so but who is to say the run will continue. I can go cold and start losing again. What I'm trying to say is their is no guarantee that no matter how good you are you can never be sure that you will continue winning

Over the short term, obviously no guarantees. But if one has compiled a good number of YEARS as a winning poker player or bettor, someone can reasonably conclude what an expected ~ return on their gambling will be over the following block of subsequent years.