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Most players will play without an AI to find value because most players don't know what value is. As long as that holds, the perfect line is not outcome probabilities minus bookmaker's margin but where the book is balanced. For example, oddscompiler puts odds 1.2 for the favorite and 5 for the underdog. Payout is 1 / (1/1.2 + 1/5) = 0.968 ie. bookie keeps 3.2 % of the money. You can see it that way: if at closing 5 million $ are bet on the favorite while 1.2 million $ on the underdog, the oddscompiler did a perfect job. No matter who wins, the house pays out 5 * 1.2 = 6 million and keeps 200 thousand as 6.2 million have been wagered - which is another way to calc the 6 / 6.2 = 96.8 % payout. Whether the odds imply outcome probabilities is not of interest for the bookie as long as the mass 1) instead of value wants to pick the winner and 2) has skewed beliefs about teams'/players' skills (as well as the who's who in the winning and losing groups is not of interest for the serious bookie, unfortunately most bookies are not serious).Last edited by J. v. Neumann; 03-22-24, 01:28 PM.Comment -
...and why can't I upload an avatar?? It's 150x150px and far below 2 MB size. (sry for asking that here, can't find the right place to ask)Comment -
Agree right now.
It's still no where near 'understanding' anything at all. It just predicts what the average human would respond with if all they knew was the same data set of knowledge. It has no clue what anything means to apply logic to it. It uses hardly 0.01% of the logic every human uses..Comment
