Thinking of risking $1000 to win $50 today, talk me out of it or not?

[arie1985]

Clemson Tigers vs Louisville Cardinals, NCAA Basketball 8pm Texas Time (CST)

I don't know if they would cover the spread or not, but I'm thinking because Louisville is so popular, they would surely get lots of backers who would try small amounts on the money line here.

So I'm looking for these kind of opportunities where the moneyline, albeit very short, does justify itself, and 1.05 on Clemson, whilst is not a "lock" by any means or a sure way to win, still I think risking $1,000 here might be worth the $50 reward in return.

What do you say?

Talk me out of it, or talk me into it lol?! (a stranger is asking a bunch of degenerates for advice lol but why not lol, who else can I ask)

[pavyracer]

bet the side and risk only $55. isn't this is what you are supposed to do? what are you otters27?

[DonnieBrasco23]

bet the side and risk only $55. isn't this is what you are supposed to do? what are you otters27?

Arie this is all the advise you need end of thread.

[arie1985]

Arie this is all the advise you need end of thread.

Thanks for the advice, it's all in then:

[DonnieBrasco23]

Thanks for the advice, it's all in then:

This degenerate cawksucker had his mind made up the whole time

[arie1985]

[DonnieBrasco23]

At least it’s not a “fugazi” bet like Weeder

[DonnieBrasco23]

Good luck but you probably won’t need it with this one, let’s see

[arie1985]

Good luck but you probably won’t need it with this one, let’s see

Would love to get these emojis here

[str]

1-20 shot. C'mon man.

If it's the rush of the price you are playing for, try W. Va. horses that are 1-9 to win, in the show pool.

Minimum payout to win, place or show is 2.20 not 2.10

Double your money back but still get to sweat the risk.

Either way, it's a losing proposition long term.

But you must already know that.

GL.

[arie1985]

1-20 shot. C'mon man.

If it's the rush of the price you are playing for, try W. Va. horses that are 1-9 to win, in the show pool.

Minimum payout to win, place or show is 2.20 not 2.10

Double your money back but still get to sweat the risk.

Either way, it's a losing proposition long term.

But you must already know that.

GL.

It's not a bet I place every day, and because I tried to make it as "calculated" as possible I also posted it here.

Still, if it wins then $50 is $50, but I agree betting like this in a long term is a pure recipe for disaster, but because of the name Louisville I do like the chances here very much, I could imagine how many throw tons on the money line (which leads me to believe it could be a bit tight during that live game).

[str]

It's not a bet I place every day, and because I tried to make it as "calculated" as possible I also posted it here.

Still, if it wins then $50 is $50, but I agree betting like this in a long term is a pure recipe for disaster, but because of the name Louisville I do like the chances here very much, I could imagine how many throw tons on the money line (which leads me to believe it could be a bit tight during that live game).

Not trying to hate but that is just too much to lay for 50.00

It might be more fun to bet 2.00 on several of these over time and see how much you would lose over time. And if you did win 10-15 in a row, that would be something man. It's never easy is it?

Again, GL.

[arie1985]

Not trying to hate but that is just too much to lay for 50.00

It might be more fun to bet 2.00 on several of these over time and see how much you would lose over time. And if you did win 10-15 in a row, that would be something man. It's never easy is it?

Again, GL.

It's not a bet I'm intending to repeat, it's valuing the odds vs its pure value, I do see value here.

If it goes to 2.00 in live betting then 2.00 has much more value than 1.05 but no one guarantees you it would go that way and no one guarantees it won't. Hence my choice.

[DonnieBrasco23]

It's not a bet I'm intending to repeat, it's valuing the odds vs its pure value, I do see value here.

If it goes to 2.00 in live betting then 2.00 has much more value than 1.05 but no one guarantees you it would go that way and no one guarantees it won't. Hence my choice.

I told myself that same thing when I put 10k on Baltimore Moneyline this past weekend. If you get away with this shit, you’re gonna continue to do it don’t lie to yourself.

[arie1985]

I told myself that same thing when I put 10k on Baltimore Moneyline this past weekend. If you get away with this shit, you’re gonna continue to do it don’t lie to yourself.

I don't want to sound cocky and I'm definitely far from seeing the future, I'm not a soothsayer or a "prophet" but check out this thread about Baltimore Ravens:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3735350-all-you-ravens-believers.html

Betting $10k on Baltimore - why?

Because they played so well all year long? This is US Sports, this is rigged as the WWE, if you don't believe it's rigged check out this video:

He explains perfectly well how the over was "rigged" and inflated in the beginning, and he shows perfect examples of what happened.

I am not surprised by 1 bit about it, not surprised at all, and I did make money from betting on this day.

You say "don't lie to yourself, you would continue doing this" - so no, I won't.

In fact I'm placing bets like these or in general maybe once a week, twice a week at most, I only bet when I see value, I used to bet like an addict, bet after bet after bet, I don't do this anymore, I trained myself to stop doing it, why? Because I know that doing it would be a sure way of losing money.

Am I sure this bet would win today? No, but I have good confidence in this bet, does it mean it's 1000% a sure winning bet? No, no bet is a lock, betting is a recipe for losing money in general, but I do like the chances here.

Does it mean this bet is better than betting on Baltimore? I don't know, I'm not here to criticize you for betting the way you did or not, I feel sorry for anyone losing money to these bookies, I don't like these bookies and I'd love people to take as much money as possible from them, but I know it's not a reality, it's not, they have the upper hand and I'm aware of it.

Still, if I see opportunities like these I do like them. Does it mean it's worth it? I don't know, you make your own decision... for me taking $50 from the bookies is better than leaving them with $0.

[DonnieBrasco23]

I don't want to sound cocky and I'm definitely far from seeing the future, I'm not a soothsayer or a "prophet" but check out this thread about Baltimore Ravens:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3735350-all-you-ravens-believers.html

Betting $10k on Baltimore - why?

Because they played so well all year long? This is US Sports, this is rigged as the WWE, if you don't believe it's rigged check out this video:

He explains perfectly well how the over was "rigged" and inflated in the beginning, and he shows perfect examples of what happened.

I am not surprised by 1 bit about it, not surprised at all, and I did make money from betting on this day.

You say "don't lie to yourself, you would continue doing this" - so no, I won't.

In fact I'm placing bets like these or in general maybe once a week, twice a week at most, I only bet when I see value, I used to bet like an addict, bet after bet after bet, I don't do this anymore, I trained myself to stop doing it, why? Because I know that doing it would be a sure way of losing money.

Am I sure this bet would win today? No, but I have good confidence in this bet, does it mean it's 1000% a sure winning bet? No, no bet is a lock, betting is a recipe for losing money in general, but I do like the chances here.

Does it mean this bet is better than betting on Baltimore? I don't know, I'm not here to criticize you for betting the way you did or not, I feel sorry for anyone losing money to these bookies, I don't like these bookies and I'd love people to take as much money as possible from them, but I know it's not a reality, it's not, they have the upper hand and I'm aware of it.

Still, if I see opportunities like these I do like them. Does it mean it's worth it? I don't know, you make your own decision... for me taking $50 from the bookies is better than leaving them with $0.

As a seasoned sports bettor I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories and the rig shit but thank you for explaining more on your perspective on why you made this bet. I hope it’s an easy one for you.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Most weeks you cannot handicap turnovers, and that’s why Baltimore lost in my opinion simple as that, they lost the turnover battle 3 to 0.

[arie1985]

Most weeks you cannot handicap turnovers, and that’s why Baltimore lost in my opinion simple as that, they lost the turnover battle 3 to 0.

They lost because the Rigged NFL wanted them to lose, because so many people had bets on them and because a smaller group of people had bets on the Chiefs, there is no other reason, it's not complicated.

I'm sorry again for your loss, but there is no loss here because this or this player did this or that (maybe Flowers' fumble contributed a lot to it but it's all rigged, nothing surprised me about this game, I already posted about it in advance, and yes, backing Patrick Mahomes seems the impossible thing to do after he messed up all this year but these are markets).

If I tell you I think Bitcoin has to go down again towards $40k instead of going up would I prove anything? No, but these are markets, whoever is building these lines is doing a damn good job .... the question is if you're happy taking a small profit here ($50) or keep on risking so much to "win" with a house edge stacked against you?

This is how I see it.

The NFL is rigged, I don't think so, I know so, it's proven time and time and time again, don't look for other reasons why Baltimore lost, there is no other reason.

[DonnieBrasco23]

They lost because the Rigged NFL wanted them to lose, because so many people had bets on them and because a smaller group of people had bets on the Chiefs, there is no other reason, it's not complicated.

I'm sorry again for your loss, but there is no loss here because this or this player did this or that (maybe Flowers' fumble contributed a lot to it but it's all rigged, nothing surprised me about this game, I already posted about it in advance, and yes, backing Patrick Mahomes seems the impossible thing to do after he messed up all this year but these are markets).

If I tell you I think Bitcoin has to go down again towards $40k instead of going up would I prove anything? No, but these are markets, whoever is building these lines is doing a damn good job .... the question is if you're happy taking a small profit here ($50) or keep on risking so much to "win" with a house edge stacked against you?

This is how I see it.

The NFL is rigged, I don't think so, I know so, it's proven time and time and time again, don't look for other reasons why Baltimore lost, there is no other reason.

We will have to agree to disagree. I’m not gonna go back in circles with you about this lol. If you happen to win this chalky moneyline keep this thread going & post your tickets and grow your bankroll. It would be fun for the community to follow your journey.

[Headsterx]

JFC… I wouldn’t even admit placing this bet, let alone discussing whether to place it or not. I hope you’re one and done with this crazy ahit.

[pavyracer]

JFC… I wouldn’t even admit placing this bet, let alone discussing whether to place it or not. I hope you’re one and done with this crazy ahit.

As soon as advised him not to do it he placed the bet so I don't think he wanted advice.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Easy win tonight, comeback with another play tomorrow sport.

[arie1985]

JFC… I wouldn’t even admit placing this bet, let alone discussing whether to place it or not. I hope you’re one and done with this crazy ahit.

Why getting $50 from a bet like this is crazy a(s)hit?

[arie1985]

Why getting $50 from a bet like this is crazy a(s)hit?

I truly don't understand some posters here, risking $55 to win $50 is okay but risking $1000 is not... and I'm not saying it's a "smart" thing to do on a constant basis but I think I've pretty much explained myself here.

I guess throwing $50 on a roulette or blackjack is "smarter" than this..... right?

[Headsterx]

Why getting $50 from a bet like this is crazy a(s)hit?

Because the risk is completely greater than the reward. But congrats on winning $50.

[arie1985]

And those who ask - why not bet the spread? Because until now I'm not sure where it will end...



It's 14 difference now with a timeout taken, the spread already hit 26.5 and now 14.5 (money line btw 1.005 on Bet365, 21.00 on Louisville).

The spread will hit wherever less bettors are betting, incl. live betting, I fully and firmly believe in rigged sports, I know it's hard for many to accept that sports, especially and mainly US sports are so rigged but it's rigged and outcomes are determined many times based on the minority side of the betting, I know it's hard for many to accept that, and some are thinking I'm loco crazy with these claims but I'm not!

[arie1985]

[bhoor]

NFL is WWF 2.0.

[JohnGalt2341]

Because they played so well all year long? This is US Sports, this is rigged as the WWE, if you don't believe it's rigged check out this video:

Let's just assume that it is rigged. I have a few questions for you. Please answer my questions with a rough estimation with your best guess. It's okay if you are way off.

#1 How long have Sports been rigged in the U.S.?
#2 How many major U.S. Sports are rigged? And which ones?
#3 How many games are rigged each week in each Sport?
#4 How many people are in on it?(How many players, coaches, refs etc, give me a total of each)
#5 If your grand total of people that are "in on it" is well over 100, aren't you surprised that so many of them are so good at keeping this "secret"?

[DonnieBrasco23]

Posters who say that sports betting is rigged are generally losing lifetime gamblers. I think it’s a lazy & irresponsible excuse to justify your losing, I don’t make excuses ever for a losing bet.

[arie1985]

Let's just assume that it is rigged. I have a few questions for you. Please answer my questions with a rough estimation with your best guess. It's okay if you are way off.

#1 How long have Sports been rigged in the U.S.?
#2 How many major U.S. Sports are rigged? And which ones?
#3 How many games are rigged each week in each Sport?
#4 How many people are in on it?(How many players, coaches, refs etc, give me a total of each)
#5 If your grand total of people that are "in on it" is well over 100, aren't you surprised that so many of them are so good at keeping this "secret"?

1) There was the Black Sox Scandal in 1919 so you have a proper "history" of recorded rigged events, it's nothing new. To answer your question plainly and simply - over 100 years!

2) Any sports that has money wagered on it, Georgia Tech vs Miami - any reason why they didn't take a knee? any reason, valid reason? plus losing the game, 0 defense:

I can find you so many examples one after another.

3) Who knows how many ... just a few days ago Memphis Pacers were live, I saw the line always going back to 226.5 ... moving a bit 223.5 and 218.5 and always back to 226.5 ... halftime was 221.5 - I took the over, it ended with 226 points exactly, was I surprised? no. Someone wanted 226 points and got it, why? I don't know, but you could have seen it in live betting.

4) I can't pinpoint every single step of the way how it's done, if I could then you would have sports being shut down, investigated and what's not ... but social media does help to expose so many wrong things .... people probably already forgot about the Cowboys Lions game, issuing a flag 1 minute after Detroit scored. This was also not rigged in your view, right?

5) Social media no longer keeps it a secret, you see more and more and more examples coming out on a daily basis. Still, most people are brainwashed, what's new about it?

Most people are herd of sheep, they don't care, many don't gamble, just buy tickets to watch + beers + nachos.
Most people don't care.

People watch it because it's entertaining and I won't deny it's not entertaining, but slowly at least some smart people expose the real truth behind these things, I see nothing wrong with that.

Social media also exposes why chemotherapy is kill-me-therapy, is that a bad thing? No, but I'm being attacked so many times by "so called experts" who say how I dare to say that chemotherapy is kill-me-therapy - it is! Ever wonder why Cannabis (Rick Simpson Oil) is illegal?

The media has lots of power behind it, if they shushed the truth about drugs, then they have no problem shushing people who speak the truth about rigged sports ... still, I believe social media will prevail and would win, but it would take time.

Look how keto diet became popular, I used to weigh 242 lbs, I was so fat and hated myself, today I'm 194 lbs ... how come? Social media, sharing the truth about why carbs are bad for you, the change is happening, just give it some time.

[arie1985]

Posters who say that sports betting is rigged are generally losing lifetime gamblers. I think it’s a lazy & irresponsible excuse to justify your losing, I don’t make excuses ever for a losing bet.

So these stats make me a losing lifetime gambler? In fact I'm among the few ones in Stake with a positive ROI, over the liftime of the account since 2020:

[Optional]

Why getting $50 from a bet like this is crazy a(s)hit?

Because addicts need larger win amounts to get their dopamine flowing.

They lose sight of the big picture and EV considerations if the risk/reward isnt big enough.

[DonnieBrasco23]

So these stats make me a losing lifetime gambler? In fact I'm among the few ones in Stake with a positive ROI, over the liftime of the account since 2020:

Those stats make you a winning gambler for a month based on scared money type bets, I’m glad it has worked out for you. Wish I could use stake myself but not as a U.S. resident.

[str]

Glad you did not lose Arie.

However, you lost me for good with the "all U.S.A. sports are rigged" stuff. These kids gave up their dream, reputation and possible livelihood because the guy behind the curtain sent them the lose sign at some point? Um, No.

And I suppose those thousand plus winners in my career that I had were only when I was told to win. Or maybe, I should have won 2,000 but 1,000 got stiffed and I did not notice it. Well damn! Never thought of that.

Really?