Week 18: Are the Ravens +3.5 worth a look?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I see the Ravens have injuries...and they'll be resting key guys.

Huntley to start at QB? How bad will the Raven effort be?

Any incentive for the Ravens to knock off rival Steelers?

Also, there should be alarm-bells to see QB Rudolph priced-up after two wins.

[agendaman]

just too tough for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

just too tough for me.

Thx, Agenda. I do expect the Dead Rubber teams to clear out the bench as much as possible.

Those teams don't even fake it anymore. Teams locked into their seed = Niners/Ravens/Browns. And I know the Rams are locked into 6 or 7.

If you see more player info, think about it. Pit (Rudolph) at Bal (Huntley) - would not be an ez blowout for PITT.

[stevenash]

There's three QB's out of the 17 teams alive for a playoff spot that have won a Super Bowl.
Patrick, Stafford, and Flaco.

[Renegades]

There is always an overreaction in the spread for the teams that “need” to win. And I always remind myself this….if they won the games they “needed” to win they wouldn’t be in a “need” to win situation.

fade them all and you prob come out a winner

[Renegades]

In true nfl fashion pitt prob wins by 3 and balt covers with back up players. No way i would lay 3.5 on the road in a gm that is typically close and low scoring

[stevenash]

There is always an overreaction in the spread for the teams that “need” to win. And I always remind myself this….if they won the games they “needed” to win they wouldn’t be in a “need” to win situation.

fade them all and you prob come out a winner

Steelers yesterday, I was on them like stink on poop.

I heard multiple times, "Seattle at home, they need the win, Seattle's the play of the day."

I was like, "really?"

[lakerboy]

Every single favorite will win next week.

[lakerboy]

The Ravens are already+4 btw

[raiders72001]

Most starters will miss the second half of the Steelers game. They do need some work with a bye would be my guess. Chargers/Chiefs in similar situation. How many players sit. Made a small play on the Chargers. Chris Jones resting for sure. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chiefs-sit...030122708.html

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Laker..."I got a feeling."

[stevenash]

^
AFC is going to be interesting.
I can make cases for Buffalo, Cleveland, and Baltimore.
KC (IMO) won't be involved, I've seen enough of their games to know the Chiefs aren't right this year.
Dropped passes, bone headed mistakes, watch Mahome's body language, it's as if he's saying "WTF, enough of this shit."

SF will sleepwalk through the NFC playoffs.
Balty and SF would be a compelling Super Bowl.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nash, a few things stuck out to me about KC early in the year:

1) The Salary Cap % for Mahomes/Kelce/Jones was like 40%. As if those guys needed to re-up.
...Doesn't leave much for everyone else.

2) The commercials for Mahomes/Kelce/Reid were embarrassing. How many do you see on Sunday? 20?
...It's like they were making one last money-grab b4 it dried up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I will be interested to see the Dolphin injury report. There's a real chance that Buffalo will be playing for All (Division) or Nothing on Sunday nite.

[stevenash]

1) The Salary Cap % for Mahomes/Kelce/Jones was like 40%. As if those guys needed to re-up.
...Doesn't leave much for everyone else.

You want to see a top heavy, lopsided team salary?

Look at Joker, Gordon, Murray, and Porter.
Then look at the other ten players' salaries.
Hey, they won a title like that though.

Denver Nuggets 2023-24 Salary Cap Table | Spotrac

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You want to see a top heavy, lopsided team salary?

Look at Joker, Gordon, Murray, and Porter.
Then look at the other ten players' salaries.
Hey, they won a title like that though.

Denver Nuggets 2023-24 Salary Cap Table | Spotrac

I don't mind it in NBA. Don't need that many players to win in NBA.

[lakerboy]

^
AFC is going to be interesting.
I can make cases for Buffalo, Cleveland, and Baltimore.
KC (IMO) won't be involved, I've seen enough of their games to know the Chiefs aren't right this year.
Dropped passes, bone headed mistakes, watch Mahome's body language, it's as if he's saying "WTF, enough of this shit."

SF will sleepwalk through the NFC playoffs.
Balty and SF would be a compelling Super Bowl.

Buffalo vs Sf would be the best actual game. I don't want to see the Ravens in the bowl and they got a week off which will not work to there advantage. Lamar will take one step forward but come up short in the AFC championship game.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, and it looks like Buffalo got their shit together.

Anybody but KC
I'm sick of Andy "The Walrus", Kelce, his overhyped girlfriend, whiny Mahomes, the Tomahawk Chop, and Jake from State Farm.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thought about this game. No way I'm playing Balt.

It has to do with game-theory. These final week games are worth contemplating.

I normally don't have a problem backing Spoiler teams. Those players will often show pride and try to put something on tape, in case they get waived.

In this game, what is the Raven motivation? They're locked into the 1-seed. Do they have any control over the OTHER afc participants.

My answer is YES:
1) Are they afraid of Pittsburgh? No, they aren't.
2) Consider the endgame-permutations. There's a scenario for the Bills to get KNOCKED OUT. That...is the scenario that the Ravens might be interested in. FWIW, Buff won at Balt last year.
...The scenario for the Bills getting knocked out isn't that outlandish.
...But it does include the Steelers beating the Ravens.

The Ravens might pull a Norvell here and mail this one in. Raven EV would go UP if the Bills get knocked out.

[ThaTopMoron]

these final 2 weeks when teams are up against it and need to win or win to clinch stuff is when you bet those 3 team +600, 4 team +1100 parlays

really like

jags
saints
packers

to win

and lean texans - colts will blow it at home just like they did 2 years ago at home v raiders

they've already shown all their holes last 2 road games - just gotta get them in the same situations at home and watch em implode

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The real interesting trifecta is the combo of Pit/Jax/Mia winning:

*That is really not that much of a long-shot. And that would KNOCK the Bills out.

...Very interested to see how the Dolphin injury list looks. They are hurting.

[hehfest]

There's three QB's out of the 17 teams alive for a playoff spot that have won a Super Bowl.
Patrick, Stafford, and Flaco.

Are you the other son of Old Bill? Dam, that guy has a bunch of kids running around.

[hehfest]

This last week all division matchups. Only a few games where both teams playing for something. I may not bet a game. I like your angle though Chuck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This last week all division matchups. Only a few games where both teams playing for something. I may not bet a game. I like your angle though Chuck.

Thx, heh. I put some plays up in the NFL section. Mostly "contrarian" Home Dogs, where I feel like the must-win Road Fav is overpriced.

On the Pit/Balt game, any standard Raven effort would mean that Balt +4 is great value vs Rudolph. Especially since Rudolph is off two wins, so he'll be over-bet.

The Raven tank angle is something to consider. Raven path to Super Bowl is un-questionably easier if Bills are not in the field. I would like to know if Harbaugh suits up Tucker b/c that guy's always worth a pt or two.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I said this some weeks ago when the Bills were struggling. I knew they'd be close on the bottom-end of the playoff bubble.

I wondered if they'd have to win the season-ending game at Miami to make the playoffs. We knew that the AFC wildcard bubble would be much stronger than the NFC wildcard bubble.

The scenario has materialized. PIT/JAX is not an improbable parlay. Bills could be facing a huge All-or-Nothing game where Wildcard isn't even in the mix.