Positive ROI Bets by ddittie

DrunkHorseplayer · 12-25-23, 05:01 PM

Niners roll, lay the wood.

Optional · 12-25-23, 05:21 PM

Good luck

ddittie · 12-25-23, 05:46 PM

49ers can roll and this bet still wins. It's on Ravens pts. I'm expecting this game to go O50 myself. I think Ravens get 24+ pts.

CORRECT

Optional · 12-25-23, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by ddittie

49ers can roll and this bet still wins. It's on Ravens pts. I'm expecting this game to go O50 myself. I think Ravens get 24+ pts.

I have Ravens +7.5 and Ov 49.5. Bought some spread and sold some total. Lets get it.

ddittie · 12-26-23, 12:13 PM

nice hit sir!

ddittie · 12-26-23, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I have Ravens +7.5 and Ov 49.5. Bought some spread and sold some total. Lets get it.

nice hit sir!

d2bets · 12-26-23, 01:18 PM

You think O20.5 had a 78.57% chance of winning? Based on what?

ddittie · 12-26-23, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

You think O20.5 had a 78.57% chance of winning? Based on what?

Prior to the game the Ravens had scored 21 pts or more in 11 out of their 14 games this season. = 78.57%

d2bets · 12-26-23, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by ddittie

Prior to the game the Ravens had scored 21 pts or more in 11 out of their 14 games this season. = 78.57%

Uhh yeah, that's not how it works. Don't you think you have to account for the opponent, situation, etc? If a team is 8-0 do they have a 100% chance to win?

You may have had a positive ROI bet, but no way did that have a 78% chance to win.

ddittie · 12-26-23, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Uhh yeah, that's not how it works. Don't you think you have to account for the opponent, situation, etc? If a team is 8-0 do they have a 100% chance to win?

You may have had a positive ROI bet, but no way did that have a 78% chance to win.

Everyone has their opinion...
The statistics I posted were a simplified version. Yes, you can account for the opposing teams defense and the amount of pts they allow on average. For the 49ers they allowed 16.71 pts per game coming into this matchup. The Ravens averaged 27.43. So when looking at that, I looked at it as them playing the toughest offense they've faced all season. They allowed 29 pts to the Cardinals a week earlier who also have a dual threat QB.

It's betting, it's all guessing. If you don't like my strat, kick rocks.
Ravens 21 27.43/16.07 Under/Over
49ers 27 30.25/16.71 Under/Over

T47
Ravens +5.5 20.5
49ers 26.5
Result: Ravens 33 49ers 19

d2bets · 12-26-23, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by ddittie

Everyone has their opinion...
The statistics I posted were a simplified version. Yes, you can account for the opposing teams defense and the amount of pts they allow on average. For the 49ers they allowed 16.71 pts per game coming into this matchup. The Ravens averaged 27.43. So when looking at that, I looked at it as them playing the toughest offense they've faced all season. They allowed 29 pts to the Cardinals a week earlier who also have a dual threat QB.

It's betting, it's all guessing. If you don't like my strat, kick rocks.
Ravens 21 27.43/16.07 Under/Over
49ers 27 30.25/16.71 Under/Over

T47
Ravens +5.5 20.5
49ers 26.5
Result: Ravens 33 49ers 19

I didn't say I didn't like the pick. Maybe it was 56%. But it certainly wasn't 78%. That's unrealistic.

texhooper · 12-27-23, 01:45 AM

If your approach is to play checkers while the books are playing chess then you will lose

pavyracer · 12-27-23, 10:48 AM

Do not critisize each gamblers method of winning. What may look to you that it doesn't make sense it doesn't matter when the book writes you a check for you winnings.

ddittie · 12-28-23, 01:39 AM

Here we go.

Week 17:
Browns Over 20.5 pts -135 - WIN Cashed it in 2nd QTR
Patriots Over 13.5 pts -120 - WIN Cashed it in 2nd QTR
Falcons Over 17.5 pts Ev - LOSS 17 pts

Saints Over 19.5 pts -125 - WIN 23 pts!
Rams Over 23.5 pts -135 WIN 26 pts!
Commanders Over 17.5 pts -110 LOSS
Bengals Over 17.5 pts -115 LOSS
Dolphins Over 21.5 pts -105 LOSS
Ravens Over 25.5 pts -115 - WIN Cashed it in 2nd QTR

Chiefs Under 26.5 pts -110 WIN
Texans Under 23.5 pts -105 LOSS
Giants Under 17.5 pts +105 LOSS
Raiders Under 20.5 pts -130 WIN

ddittie · 12-28-23, 09:17 PM

browns cashed in 2nd quarter

Chiefs83 · 12-28-23, 11:00 PM

Prior to the game the Ravens had scored 21 pts or more in 11 out of their 14 games this season. = 78.57%
Uhh yeah, that's not how it works
I like the 2 Bets so far but
I agree not how it works but interesting write up I’m not bashing just my opinion

ddittie · 12-29-23, 01:37 AM

Offenses goal is to score pts
Defenses goal is to prevent them.

If both sides are successful it equals a win every time. Can we all agree on that?

Memphis +10.5 vs Iowa St tomorrow. WIN Memphis took control early and never trailed. Memphis 36-26.

Iowa State is projected to get ~34 pts. Memphis ~23. Oddsmaker had this one flipped.
Not how it works maybe but Iowa state has scored 34 pts or more 3 times out of 12 this year. 2 times out of three those games were within a 10 pt margin or less.

Memphis scored 23 pts 11 out of 12 times this year. They scored 21 pts in the game they didn't reach 23.
Make it 12 out of 13.

This line is off to me. I don't care if the entire team isn't playing, the coaches are the ones to get paid to make shit happen, I'll put my money on a game here and a new storyline on other players that aren't being selfish.

This ones a LOCK.

ddittie · 12-29-23, 01:39 AM

I mean't today. When I call a play a lock, it's plus/minus 3 units. All other wins and losses are 1 unit. I quit the last thread cause doing the math on -110 vs -135 etc started pissing me off.

Moneyline Memphis might be a play, but let's stick to the +/- 50-60%s.

Memphis +10.5 is a lock. Live bet +17.5 if you get it. Don't push it from there.

GL

ddittie · 12-29-23, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Uhh yeah, that's not how it works. Don't you think you have to account for the opponent, situation, etc? If a team is 8-0 do they have a 100% chance to win?

You may have had a positive ROI bet, but no way did that have a 78% chance to win.

I guess I didn't read this part the first time iI read your message.
"If a team is 8-0 do they have a 100% chance to win?"

I see your point about accounting for the opponent and the situation. When I mention a team being 8-0, my intention isn't to imply they have a 100% chance of winning their next game, but rather to highlight their current win rate. For instance, if this 8-0 team faces a 3-8 team, we're looking at a scenario where one team has a 100% win rate while the other has won 37.5% of their games.
This is where the Pareto Principle can come into play. In cases where a team's win rate is above 80%, betting on the underdog might offer value, especially since many people tend to favor the team with the better record, often at less favorable odds. This approach counters the gambler's fallacy, which is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa.
In terms of betting strategy, instead of simply doubling our bet each time we lose (a classic 'martingale' approach), we should consider the advantageous odds of the underdog. The idea is to calculate the bet amount not just to break even but to ensure a profit. It’s a more nuanced approach that takes into account the potential value in underdog bets, rather than just relying on the win-loss record alone.

ddittie · 12-29-23, 02:17 AM

I'm not equating the team's scoring over a certain point threshold with their odds of winning outright. Instead, I'm focusing on the occurrence rate of a specific event (in this case, scoring over X points) and how that compares to the given odds.
To elaborate, if a team has historically scored over X points in 78% of their games this season, and the betting odds for them to score over 20.5 points are at -110, there’s a notable discrepancy here that could be advantageous. With odds of -110, the implied probability to break even is about 53%. However, since this team has exceeded the point threshold 78% of the time, there’s a substantial gap—around 25%—between their historical performance and the implied odds.
This gap suggests that betting on this team to score over X points is a value bet. As long as the team continues to score over X points in more than 53% of future games (the break-even point for these odds), the bet should be profitable in the long run. This is the core of my betting strategy: identifying and capitalizing on these gaps where the statistical performance of a team indicates a higher probability of an event occurring than what the odds imply.

ThaWoj · 12-29-23, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by ddittie

I mean't today. When I call a play a lock, it's plus/minus 3 units. All other wins and losses are 1 unit. I quit the last thread cause doing the math on -110 vs -135 etc started pissing me off.

Moneyline Memphis might be a play, but let's stick to the +/- 50-60%s.

Memphis +10.5 is a lock. Live bet +17.5 if you get it. Don't push it from there.

GL

Good luck. Memphis is a huge public dog. Spread and ML.

ddittie · 12-29-23, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

Good luck. Memphis is a huge public dog. Spread and ML.

Eek, public got me good vs Dallas & Philly. I feel instant regret alrdy... damn public. Bunch of assholes if you ask me

ThaWoj · 12-29-23, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by ddittie

Eek, public got me good vs Dallas & Philly. I feel instant regret alrdy... damn public. Bunch of assholes if you ask me

19-0 memphis. Looking great early for you especially the spread.

ddittie · 12-29-23, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

19-0 memphis. Looking great early for you especially the spread.

This one was too easy. I took a nap and didn't watch a minute of the game. I even cashed them on the ML. I got it in late on a live when they were up 7 so I didn't get the +380 or whatever it started at

Thread starts 3-0. Woot

ddittie · 12-30-23, 01:09 AM

Dallas -5.5 LOSS

I don't like this bet AT ALL. Only because there is a lot of emotion involved. I grew up a Cowboys fan and spent my entire childhood crying and depressed from them losing games. I invested a lot with them and for zero gain whatsoever.

The analytics show that Dallas at home is a different animal. They beat up on people, they put on a show. Hell, ever been to a game? You have 25 different economies attacking you. Never expect to budget correctly for a Dallas game. They gunna get that wallet. Jerry Jones has partnered with Chatgpt AND Kim Jung something to know exactly what the limit is on whatever card you bring to the game. Hell, he knows which card just off the parking lot gangsters union.

By the time the opposing gets into the stadium and realizes its 600 ft below the surface go the earth, they know this shit just got real.

Lions in the den fail to out kick the new best kicker in the game. Pts add up over time and Dallas pulls one out the ass somehow. Momentum and future ticket sales heading into the playoffs where they probably are one in done. Never hitting the SB this year. GL with your bets.

Jerry probably speaks Russian. Beware

You can win/win here. Either Dallas is gunna eat that ass or they going to choke. The odds for the Lions give you a unique opportunity to win/win.

IF you had $100 to lose, bet $65 on Cowboys -5.5 and $35 on the Lions ML. Win/Win (Guaranteed Cash)

ddittie · 12-30-23, 01:13 AM

O52 Probably hits but ya just never know. Hope the first half is lit, bet the Under for the total at half if so.

ddittie · 12-30-23, 01:51 AM

**College Football Saturday Showdowns: Hot Takes and Bold Bets**

**Florida State vs. Georgia: The Underdog's Tale**
Florida State is in a fascinating predicament. The entire nation seems convinced they don't stand a chance against Georgia, but I beg to differ. With the current odds at +700, it's an underappreciated opportunity. Let's not forget, these players have their futures at stake. This is more than just a game; it's about passion and potential. My take? Florida State +20 is a solid bet. Why? Defense. This team's defense has been underrated, and I'm betting they show up big time. And if Florida State gets the lead? Consider the money line for a strategic hedge. Remember, we've got a QB here who's an enigma – a true dual threat that might just surprise us all.

**Old Miss vs. Penn State: The Statistical Conundrum**
Now, let's dive into the Old Miss vs. Penn State game. ESPN Analytics gives Penn State a 72% chance of winning, yet the line is at a mere 4.5. This doesn't add up. SEC teams like Old Miss bring a unique edge, as Kenneth Gronbach explains in "Upside: Profiting from the Profound Demographic Shifts Ahead." My strategy? Wait for a line at +7.5 and go with 2 units. If it hits 10.5, bump it to 3 units. At 14.5, double down with 6 units. Remember, Penn State hasn't faced tough competition this season. This game is Old Miss's to lead, potentially by 15+.

**Rockets vs. Cowboys (Toledo vs. Wyoming): A Closer Look**
Toledo opened at -1, now sitting at +3.5 against Wyoming. What does this shift tell us? It's anyone's game, but the analytics lean towards Toledo. Both teams score over 22 points in more than 60% of their games, but Toledo thrives in close games, even in defeat. Wyoming, on the other hand, tends to falter under pressure. My advice? Take Toledo and consider the Over. This game is set to be a nail-biter, and Toledo's resilience could be the deciding factor.

**Auburn vs. Maryland: The SEC Bias**
Full disclosure – I'm SEC biased. But hear me out on Auburn vs. Maryland. This is one of those games where you might want to sit back and just enjoy the spectacle. Auburn brings that SEC intensity, making this matchup less predictable and more about enjoying the moment. Use this time to savor your wins and grab some celebratory food!

**Final Thoughts**
This College Football Saturday is not just about the games; it's a testament to the players' hard work and determination. Behind every bet and statistic is a team of individuals giving it their all. So, whether you're in it for the thrill of the bet or the love of the game, remember the heart and soul these players bring to the field.

Happy betting, and enjoy the games!

ddittie · 12-30-23, 02:06 AM

Oh to be clear:

Florida State +20 -110 LOSS
ML Ole Miss +172 WIN
Ole Miss *Live bet +7.5 and if it moves to 10.5, bet 3 units. Quit after that and just wait. WIN
Toledo +155 LOSS
Toledo/Wyoming O44.5 LOSS

Optional · 12-30-23, 04:57 AM

Like the write ups DD. Good luck.

ddittie · 12-30-23, 12:25 PM

Ole Miss is at +9.5. Take that instead of +7.5, wait for 14.5 if it comes and take that

Ty Optional

ddittie · 12-30-23, 03:38 PM

Ole Miss wins outright, ML takes it as did the live bet if you took it at +9.5. Only had one shot at it because Penn St only led for a couple minutes after their first drive

4-0

ddittie · 12-30-23, 11:43 PM

6-4

Terrible day after a great start. Don't know where my head was at on that Florida State game.

Toledo blew the game. Blah blah blah

ddittie · 12-31-23, 07:22 PM

12-10

ddittie · 12-31-23, 07:55 PM

Vikings -1
Under 42.5