You got to pick your spots. MLB has the most games in every major sport in the US. This is why in your mind think that the dogs win a lot but in reality very few dogs win series. They may win a game or two every now and then but they usually lose.
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Lake, have you figured out any Counter-strategy?Originally posted by lakerboy
This ties to the history of odds-making. For a long time, the SHARP side was the Dog on public sports like NFL. It had to do with too many bettors lining up with the Favorite.
As odds-making gets more precise over time, the Dog/Fav split gets closer. On Moneyline sports, more seasoned bettors don't like laying odds where they're betting more to win less.
If you think the Dogs are priced too short, look at playing spot-Favs are short prices. Do you think the dominant starting pitchers are worth backing? Betting Favs who are priced too short = a great Moneyline stream that is not subject to too much downside risk.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
This isn't true in NFL, dogs have shown a healthy flat bet profit each of the last two years.Comment -
Not disagreeing with that. Look at a longer time-frame.Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer
NFL: Dogs (especially Home Dogs and DD Road Dogs) were very profitable in the 1980s to about 1999.
...More recent timeline would have the Fav/Dog split as much closer to 50/50.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
It just baffles me how not one underdog won last night in MLB. You see that in all sports from time to time but it seems like every night favs win the majority of the games.Comment -
I take that back. The Astros won, but still.Comment -
They went 9-6 or 8-7 on Sunday. You ONLY complain when it's an off night.Originally posted by stevexComment -
Thursday and Friday. Favs.Comment -
Chalk 4 - 0 in MLB already today and about to be 5 - 0.Comment -
WOW it got really uglyComment -
MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date
DOGS either road or home 41.8%-wr
DOGS either road or home ATS 56.8-wrComment -
Yeah bro I think readers are assuming you can just bet any dog, any day, @any line simply just not true.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
Stats like this are meaningless. Especially the second one. +1.5 is generally high juice.Originally posted by veriableodds
As for the first one you can twist that many ways. They might have been a dog at bet time but a small favorite earlier in the day. Also a +102 line really is not a dog especially if they are on the road.
Let me know if you have records of moneyline dogs of +115 and above at closing lines.Comment -
I don't understand how league trends are meaningless, when they are the base foundation of bias value.Originally posted by lakerboy
+115 or higher better sure tonight tb. They are a dog just because of pitching?? That doesn't play out to 75% is because of pitching, that's a general misconception. Pure dog above +120 tonight mlw. What makes you think favs are so much better??Comment -
Who said I think favorites are better?Originally posted by veriableodds
I dissected your bias trends and you have no answer to what I asked.
Trends are meaningless. That's the sure way to the poor house. Every event is individual.
My point was made. I seek return on wagers.Comment -
Originally posted by lakerboy
Maybe I should rephrase to the opposite side not the favorite, sounded like to me you were making a case for the opposite. League trends is a tool to help find bias value, not as in literally. I do not believe trends are completely worthless either, IE: take tomorrow how many teams that have only 4wins in the last 10 games will win?? I do agree every event is individual, but if one team has a spend power of 10m while the other only 3m what talent difference could possibly exist? I think we all are going after returns right that's obvious.Comment -
Stats like this are meaningless// Just a tool to find value not literally.Originally posted by lakerboy
Especially the second one. +1.5 is generally high juice// Agree, however -1/+1 alt lines are not so juicy.
As for the first one you can twist that many ways// No I follow certain criteria.
They might have been a dog at bet time but a small favorite earlier in the day. Also a +102 line really is not a dog especially if they are on the road.// Again certain criteria is followed. I do not line watch id rather get a breath of fresh airComment -
Favs are clicking right now. Dodgers, Braves and Orioles are straight up money.Comment -
You were on sea last nightOriginally posted by JIBBBYComment -
Reds todayComment -
That tells nothing without odds adjustment.Originally posted by veriableoddsComment -
I've been cleaning up lately with Washington; they're 62-71 but the public is acting as if they're still the same sad sack team they've been the last few years. On them tonight at +205.Comment -
Tigers, same thing.Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayerComment -
Its a reference for finding hidden value. dissecting it literally and comparing it to lines is not what you want to do.Comment -
Not really though because Detroit isn't getting the prices that Washington has been. Books respect Detroit Much more.Originally posted by stevenashComment -
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Can't argue with that, point being Detroit despites a sub .500 record is turning a profit.Comment -
As a lowly Tigers fan this is accurate. Detroit doesn’t get those numbers. They are “scrappy” until I bet on them.Originally posted by lakerboyComment -
Finding Spots Washinton in the Month of August as a dog 13-9 +940 last 10 6-4 +955
GL
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