SUPER BOWL thoughts?

**pavyracer** · 02-10-23, 08:40 PM

Chiefs..the coaching advantage is huge in this game. Andy Reid is a mastermind. He will find ways to create holes in Eagles defense.

**agendaman** · 02-10-23, 08:48 PM

andy reid plus mahommes plus kelce. cash it.

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 02-10-23, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

andy reid plus mahommes plus kelce. cash it.

Against Tampa bay they didn't

**Optional** · 02-10-23, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I keep going back and forth on who to play. KC or Philly? Let's keep it simple..

- Philly has the better defense and defense wins championships!

- KC has the better QB with proven super bowl experience in Mahomes and you know he will be game and deliver!

I'm not buying into any injures either at this point either. So who do pick to win? Hmmm?

Same here Jibbby. Can't make up mind on a winner. Will probably stick to props.

**19th Hole** · 02-10-23, 11:04 PM

**Covering the #** · 02-10-23, 11:24 PM

The musher "on it" guy is on KC. That is all we need to know

**JIBBBY** · 02-10-23, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by Covering the #

The musher "on it" guy is on KC. That is all we need to know

Which musher is that? Seaweed or Johnny?

**Covering the #** · 02-11-23, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Which musher is that? Seaweed or Johnny?

Have never seen Seaweed type "on it" so that leaves one last option to the question.

**JIBBBY** · 02-11-23, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Covering the #

Have never seen Seaweed type "on it" so that leaves one last option to the question.

Lol.. Received and understood!

**d2bets** · 02-11-23, 11:36 AM

Neither. Props.

But Philly's D is not all it's cracked up to be. They're not a typical dominant Super Bowl D. And they faced so many hapless offenses, it's not funny.

**Snowball** · 02-11-23, 11:46 AM

I think Philly is the better team, and won't be denied on the field.

I also like Sanders Over 61.5 RY

btw if anyone here wants to bet friendly points on KC, no line... even money no spread
put them up here. I will do up to 5000. You know I will pay. See I have 8k.

do it here

Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/betpoints/3720934-sb-up-5k-you-take-kc.html

**pologq** · 02-11-23, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

I think Philly is the better team, and won't be denied on the field.

I also like Sanders Over 61.5 RY

and i like sanders to score a td at +130

**jrgum3** · 02-11-23, 11:55 AM

I played KC even though the metrics and stats all point to Philly having the edge. The two things they don't have the edge on are perhaps the most important things and that's coach plus QB. I took Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as dogs because in a close game I trust them to come through when it matters most.

**pavyracer** · 02-11-23, 01:13 PM

Quit comparing apples with oranges.

The regular season wins mean nothing.

Each team played different teams.

This is a final game. Winner takes all.

Pick the team that has the experience and coach to win this game.

**JIBBBY** · 02-11-23, 03:17 PM

I think I'm gonna buy a point and go with KC +3.5.

Could come down to a FG game ending win either way.

**lakerboy** · 02-11-23, 03:19 PM

Guys will remember tomorrow night that they took hurts over mahomes and ask themselves why.

**Goat Milk** · 02-11-23, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Guys will remember tomorrow night that they took hurts over mahomes and ask themselves why.

Better qb doesn't always win. Brady lost 3 superbowls after all. Hurts already better than Eli Manning. Nick Foles? Lol.

High scoring game Eagles 34-31 on a walk off fg.

**captrobey** · 02-11-23, 03:55 PM

I know SBs normally go Over and these 2 have the chance to be a shootout. But am a bit worried about PM i want to see the Eagles Win in a shootout . PM just looked bad last game throwing down field . Thats all that worries me on the Over

**lakerboy** · 02-11-23, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Better qb doesn't always win. Brady lost 3 superbowls after all. Hurts already better than Eli Manning. Nick Foles? Lol.

High scoring game Eagles 34-31 on a walk off fg.

You are on hurts+500 right? I won't be watching this but I will check in tomorrow to congratulate you.

**Jayvegas420** · 02-11-23, 04:44 PM

Quez Watkins over 70 yds & to score a TD
pays 36 to 1

**gauchojake** · 02-11-23, 04:45 PM

I'm not 100% sure that Philly's D is better than the Chiefs.

**lakerboy** · 02-11-23, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

I'm not 100% sure that Philly's D is better than the Chiefs.

Do they have an advantage anywhere except offensive line?

**pavyracer** · 02-11-23, 04:57 PM

Chiefs went to the Superbowl to win it. Eagles are happy to be there.

When this happens the team that wants it more wins it.

**JIBBBY** · 02-12-23, 01:42 PM

Going with the Chiefs +3.5 at -170 to -180 on all my books. Not loading up though but have some good money riding with all books combined. Let's see if this shit sticks!

Bovada ticket copy and paste -

Placed - Single Risk $ 631.00 / To Win $ 350.56 / Odds -180

Spread 2/12/23
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (-180) (101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Philadelphia Eagles (Game) Spread Football - Super Bowl Feb 12, 2023 06:30 PM EST Super Bowl LVII at {State Farm Stadium} - Glendale, AZ

**pavyracer** · 02-12-23, 02:06 PM

J in JIBBBY is for the juice.

Are you fukking serious?

You are going to pay -180 to get +3.5 when the ML is +105?

What kind of garbage betting is this?

You are going to give to the book an additional 80% of your bets in juice?

JIBBBY I hope you are just joking. It was a good laugh.

**JIBBBY** · 02-12-23, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

J in JIBBBY is for the juice.

Are you fukking serious?

You are going to pay -180 to get +3.5 when the ML is +105?

What kind of garbage betting is this?

You are going to give to the book an additional 80% of your bets in juice?

JIBBBY I hope you are just joking. It was a good laugh.

Lol. I think the game might come down to a FG game. I don't see a blowout happening either way. I'm taking a shot and paying the juice Pavy with the security of a FG!. It's the only bet I thought was logical on the game that I feel comfortable with. I got prop betting going on as well..

If it comes down to a field goal win by Philly in the end my bet won't look so stupid now will it?

**dxp** · 02-12-23, 02:25 PM

still love seeing all the eagles hate. they had the #1 pass defense in the league at 179 yards per game. and that's saying a lot considering how often they dominated and teams had to go pass heavy.

- cousins 27/46, 221 yards, 3 int, 2 sacks, 1 fumble
- lawrence 11/23, 174 yards, 1 int, 4 sacks, 4 lost fumbles
- rush 18/38, 181 yards, 3 int
- rodgers 11/16, 140 yards, 2 int, 3 sacks
- tannehill 14/22, 141 yards, 6 sacks

jones didn't stand a chance both games. purdy got strip sacked 6 plays into the game and injured. then his backup got drilled into the ground and injured. even the rare times someone can move the ball on them, they are still getting sacks and creating turnovers.

that's the only way the chiefs win. mahomes needs to throw for like 300+ AND the eagles have to turn it over 2 or 3 times. anything less, eagles are too dominant on both sides.

**milwaukee mike** · 02-12-23, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

J in JIBBBY is for the juice.

Are you fukking serious?

You are going to pay -180 to get +3.5 when the ML is +105?

What kind of garbage betting is this?

You are going to give to the book an additional 80% of your bets in juice?

JIBBBY I hope you are just joking. It was a good laugh.

there's more than one way to look at the math

for a -180 to be profitable you have to win 64% of the time... for the +105 you need 49%

so the chiefs would have to lose by 1,2,3 about 15% of the time... i think the odds of that with a pick em game are around 13-14% so you're right but just barely

and i would think a game like the super bowl is more likely than others to be close

**pavyracer** · 02-12-23, 03:12 PM

MM thanks for the input. Just out of curiosity, out of all the Superbowls played so far how many ended at 1, 2 or 3 point differential.

**lakerboy** · 02-12-23, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

MM thanks for the input. Just out of curiosity, out of all the Superbowls played so far how many ended at 1, 2 or 3 point differential.

You can only apply your question to games that had a line like this one.

**JIBBBY** · 02-12-23, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

MM thanks for the input. Just out of curiosity, out of all the Superbowls played so far how many ended at 1, 2 or 3 point differential.

How many superbowl lines have been just 1 or 2 points on the spread? Experts seem to think it will be a close game.

Let's just hope that KC wins. I think they have been disrespected coming in as the under dog in the Superbowl. I think they will have an axe to grind. We'll see?

**Kermit** · 02-12-23, 03:18 PM

I think the Eagles are going to run the shit out of the ball to keep Mahomes off of the field. I love them over 144.5 yards.

**pavyracer** · 02-12-23, 03:21 PM

Ok..just looked it up.

56 Superbowls.

6 games landed on 3 and one game landed on 1. So it happens at a 12.5% rate or once every 8 games.

**milwaukee mike** · 02-12-23, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Ok..just looked it up.

56 Superbowls.

6 games landed on 3 and one game landed on 1. So it happens at a 12.5% rate or once every 8 games.

that's much lower than i thought

i agree with you that the kc +105 is better, i actually like that bet if you can find it. i took kc -101 heritage