Has anybody ever done a long term study on teasers with +1-+2 spreads?

[EGrecu]

I'm talking about teasing from +1 or + 2 to +8. It seems like a huge percentage of games are decided by 1 TD or less?

[d2bets]

No need to study as a teaser. It's just a question of pricing an alternate spread. If the 2-teamer is -110, you're looking at a -260 alt spread per leg. At the right odds it could be slightly profitable in certain spots, but not large scale.

Remember that a teaser is a parlay. It's just a parlay of alternate lines.

[EGrecu]

No need to study as a teaser. It's just a question of pricing an alternate spread. If the 2-teamer is -110, you're looking at a -260 alt spread per leg. At the right odds it could be slightly profitable in certain spots, but not large scale.

Remember that a teaser is a parlay. It's just a parlay of alternate lines.

On a lot of plays, if you buy points from 1 to 3.5, it's already at like -180 or -190

-265 for all the way at 7.5 when you're also covering key numbers of 4, 6 and 7 has gotta be profitable long term, no?

[d2bets]

On a lot of plays, if you buy points from 1 to 3.5, it's already at like -180 or -190

-265 for all the way at 7.5 when you're also covering key numbers of 4, 6 and 7 has gotta be profitable long term, no?

There are worse things in the world, but you need to pick your spots. I used to tease a lot back in the day when I got +100 and ties win. Now that was good. And the books weren't keen to playing with the lines around 9. Recall teasing many -9's down to -2.5. Essentially -2.5-240 when the ML was like -450.

At -110, it's doable. But then many/most books charge -120 on 6-point teasers. Also pay attention to ties win or lose. You have to bet at the right book at the right time in the right spots. It's not easy.

[EGrecu]

There are worse things in the world, but you need to pick your spots. I used to tease a lot back in the day when I got +100 and ties win. Now that was good. And the books weren't keen to playing with the lines around 9. Recall teasing many -9's down to -2.5. Essentially -2.5-240 when the ML was like -450.

At -110, it's doable. But then many/most books charge -120 on 6-point teasers. Also pay attention to ties win or lose. You have to bet at the right book at the right time in the right spots. It's not easy.

I try to tease against teams that are offensively challenged. Like rams bucs yesterday. 9 points is a penetrate ton for a team like tampa to cover

I also like inter division matchups. Naturally more competitive

[d2bets]

I try to tease against teams that are offensively challenged. Like rams bucs yesterday. 9 points is a penetrate ton for a team like tampa to cover

I also like inter division matchups. Naturally more competitive

Is it -110 odds? Do ties win? If yes and yes, you should do OK if you bet them at the right time.

[EGrecu]

Is it -110 odds? Do ties win? If yes and yes, you should do OK if you bet them at the right time.

I think ties result in a half win. I'm not 100% sure

It's -120 odds. It's bookmaker. They have decent lines, not the best but their 20% cash bonus is terrific. You can spin your bankroll to keep getting 20% cash bonus

[gauchojake]

Bookmaker has done an extensive study on this. They are telling me to tell you it's +ev???

[EGrecu]

Bookmaker has done an extensive study on this. They are telling me to tell you it's +ev???

Teasers are great for books cause many idiots use them on totals or even teasing like 12 pts to 6.5 or teasing -2 to +4.5. Horrible.

So dumb. Anything outside of teasing 2 to 8 and 8 or 9 to 2.5 is idiotic

[pologq]

i like taking adjusted lines for football and putting little parlays and round robins together. i agree it is all situational. must cross all key numbers.

i know a lot who just tease big spreads even bigger like the jets yesterday. i just used the jets at +14 instead of +12.5 from earlier in the week.

[EGrecu]

i like taking adjusted lines for football and putting little parlays and round robins together. i agree it is all situational. must cross all key numbers.

i know a lot who just tease big spreads even bigger like the jets yesterday. i just used the jets at +14 instead of +12.5 from earlier in the week.

Teasing 12 pts to 18 or 19 is a terrible play

There's not that many games decided in that range compared to games being decided from 2 to 8 points. The difference is astronomical

[gauchojake]

The problem with any long-term analysis is that the rules have changed regarding extra points/2pt conversions.

Couple that with the fact that books changed the rules and shade numbers, and I'd say it's not worth your time and money.

[d2bets]

I think ties result in a half win. I'm not 100% sure

It's -120 odds. It's bookmaker. They have decent lines, not the best but their 20% cash bonus is terrific. You can spin your bankroll to keep getting 20% cash bonus

-120 is garbage. You're not gonna win long-term. And you need to know the ties rule.

[pologq]

-120 for 6 points is not worth it with all the adjusted spreads you can substitute instead. betting has really changed.

and yes, 2pt conversions are a whole different animal. before a team down 11 with 5 mins left would need 2 full td drives. not anymore. that is huge.

[EGrecu]

-120 for 6 points is not worth it with all the adjusted spreads you can substitute instead. betting has really changed.

and yes, 2pt conversions are a whole different animal. before a team down 11 with 5 mins left would need 2 full td drives. not anymore. that is huge.

The saints game today alt line at +7.5 is -325

The teaser is much better

I also love a home team getting that line. Home teams are more likely to be competitive

[d2bets]

The saints game today alt line at +7.5 is -325

The teaser is much better

I also love a home team getting that line. Home teams are more likely to be competitive

Uh huh. And what's the other side? Margin is super-thin at -120 odds. You need to find -110.

[asiagambler]

The problem with any long-term analysis is that the rules have changed regarding extra points/2pt conversions.

Couple that with the fact that books changed the rules and shade numbers, and I'd say it's not worth your time and money.

That rule was changed in 2015. There's plenty of data for long-term analysis

[EGrecu]

Uh huh. And what's the other side? Margin is super-thin at -120 odds. You need to find -110.

You think there's any additional value with a home team getting the +7.5?

I just don't see many matchups where a home team gets blown out In what should be a competitive game

[asiagambler]

You think there's any additional value with a home team getting the +7.5?

I just don't see many matchups where a home team gets blown out In what should be a competitive game

Since 2015, there's been 193 games with a spread of +1, +1.5, +2 or +2.5 for the home team

The home team covered +7.5 142 of those games (73.6%). Breaking it down individually:

32/44 when line was +1 (72.7%)
37/42 when line was +1.5 (88.1%)
27/36 when line was +2 (75.0%)
46/71 when line was +2.5 (64.8%)

[asiagambler]

You think there's any additional value with a home team getting the +7.5?

I just don't see many matchups where a home team gets blown out In what should be a competitive game

For away teams it's 157/206 (76.2%) so barely any difference at all based on home/away and actually a bit better on the road

[TheGoldenGoose]

A ML, a Parlay, a Teaser, a reduced juice -105. These are all useful tools in your gambling arsenal.

Teaser prices should be...

6 points -110

6.5 points -120

7 points -130

Anything more and you are getting squeezed by your Book.

I use them all the time.

Check out my November thru January Thread in the Players Talk Forum!

[StackinGreen]

A ML, a Parlay, a Teaser, a reduced juice -105. These are all useful tools in your gambling arsenal.

Teaser prices should be...

6 points -110

6.5 points -120

7 points -130

Anything more and you are getting squeezed by your Book.

I use them all the time.

Check out my November thru January Thread in the Players Talk Forum!

Yes, beyond this with alternate line parlays there is almost no reason to do set point teasers such at these. Handicap with better point margins to land on and take a lower payout with a higher win probability, if you are going to bother. What's funny is that no one even offers 4 team 13 anymore. They barely offer 3 team 10.

[StackinGreen]

Note that you should also be cappin' the fact that New Orleans came off a monster performance (score) and thus the line was going to be off.

I'm just as interested, if not more, in teasing overs in modern football. I know, I know, most games are going under this year but that I think is going hand in hand with how mediocre the league is now and how sides are really coming up random especially with the top teams.

GB all of a sudden blows, as do TB and LA Rams (and Chargers!)
KC even lost to the Colts, lol, people forgot that
Buff loses to an ascending Jets team, hey at least it was road divisional

etc

[stevenash]

No need to study as a teaser. It's just a question of pricing an alternate spread. If the 2-teamer is -110, you're looking at a -260 alt spread per leg. At the right odds it could be slightly profitable in certain spots, but not large scale.

Remember that a teaser is a parlay. It's just a parlay of alternate lines.

The standard payout for a two team 6 point tease is 10/11, and a 6.5 two team payout is 10/12
The books generally offer -250 money line on a 6.5 football favorite.

What's the better bet, the tease, or the money line parlay.

*Spoiler alert*
It's not the teaser.

[d2bets]

The standard payout for a two team 6 point tease is 10/11, and a 6.5 two team payout is 10/12
The books generally offer -250 money line on a 6.5 football favorite.

What's the better bet, the tease, or the money line parlay.

*Spoiler alert*
It's not the teaser.

Well yes, you're example is on 6.5 favorite. You don't tease that.

Now do it for 8.5.

There's a reason why books are sitting on Chiefs -9.5 instead of -8.5.

[stevenash]

Well yes, you're example is on 6.5 favorite. You don't tease that.

Now do it for 8.5.

There's a reason why books are sitting on Chiefs -9.5 instead of -8.5.

Good example, and yes.

[LT Profits]

Assuming -260 on each leg, breakeven = 52.16% = -109. so even -110 is slightly -EV

Ah the good old days when 2-team 6-pointers used to be +100

[Brandt Moat]

On ties my local knocks it down one. If it is a 3 teamer, he pays for a 2. Doesn't pay from 2 down to 1, it is a push.

I think ties result in a half win. I'm not 100% sure

It's -120 odds. It's bookmaker. They have decent lines, not the best but their 20% cash bonus is terrific. You can spin your bankroll to keep getting 20% cash bonus

[StackinGreen]

Props are much better than sides this year in the NFL, way bigger EV for me

[asiagambler]

On ties my local knocks it down one. If it is a 3 teamer, he pays for a 2. Doesn't pay from 2 down to 1, it is a push.

This dumbfukk again

Got any more outdated advice about teasers? How about never cross 0??
Please tell us more 30 year old strategies everyone already knows

[Brandt Moat]

The Gook fook. That's chink for Lil Tickle guy. O kray Soup dong yu. Like poo poo platter Don't matter. Fook off gook.

This dumbfukk again

Got any more outdated advice about teasers? How about never cross 0??
Please tell us more 30 year old strategies everyone already knows

[Brandt Moat]

Advice? Nope wrong smart one. Strategies? Nope wrong again smart one. Just friendly info on how my book handles ties. So, don't be dipn and dapn when don't know what's happnin Dumb Fook Foo Shin Doo.

This dumbfukk again

Got any more outdated advice about teasers? How about never cross 0??
Please tell us more 30 year old strategies everyone already knows

[Brandt Moat]

Yea because what the fook happened in 2015 has shyt to do with now. Let's follow this genius. He has numbers on what happens. Not an eye for the game. Just some stats to build an idea that doesn't mean a fooking ting. Come on Fook Foo Do your better then that!

Since 2015, there's been 193 games with a spread of +1, +1.5, +2 or +2.5 for the home team

The home team covered +7.5 142 of those games (73.6%). Breaking it down individually:

32/44 when line was +1 (72.7%)
37/42 when line was +1.5 (88.1%)
27/36 when line was +2 (75.0%)
46/71 when line was +2.5 (64.8%)

[Brandt Moat]

The game has changed so much since 2015! Master Fook Face Shin.

[Brandt Moat]

Rules, coaching, players "RIGHTS", Woke crap in the game, defensive schemes, portals just about everything has changed in football since 2015. I'm the dumb fook? You are that fookn dumb to use a number from another team with completely different players and use that as something to gain insight into a particular game. Asian Genius! You should be revered as the next Einstein. Take your lil Tickle guy, pucie azz, gook fook, flat face, dirty haired, fookn stinkin azz the fook down the road Shyt For Brains.