Prop Bets I Like Today

[stevenash]

I'm up against the clock here, so I'll keep it brief.

I've made seven such prop bets this season, five times they've cashed for me.
(I've posted a few of them)

I'm a lifelong, cradle to grave die hard Giants homer.
I don't think I've missed more that five Giants games in the past twenty years.
I see this week in and week out, believe me when I tell you Graham Gano is an elite place kicker, and that's a term you can only apply to two others active right now, Mr. Tucker, and the Bronco's Brad McManus.

When the Giants are inside the plus 30 yard line, over eighty percent of the time it's money.
Ideally if you're on the prop bet only you want the FG, but from 50 yards in, Gano is almost automatic, and even from 50 to 56 yards.

Gano is to place kicking accuracy as William Tell was to archery.

I'm once again on the Gano gravy train.
OVER 6.5 kicking points.

Re-read what I just wrote.
Same applies to McManus.

He's all that too, plus today he's kicking at home in that mike hight thin air that adds a few extra yards to his kicks.
Even better is the Jets play pretty good defense, as long as Denver gets inside the plus 40 yard line, he's pretty much assured points/

One of these two props are in play, if not both.
I'm just passing along information and data that has been paying me off on a regular basis,
Fade, tail, or pass.
I'm just putting this out there, do what it as you may,

Best of luck today.

			0-19		20-29		30-39		40-49		50+			Scoring
Player	Tm		FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM		FGA	FGM	Lng	FG%	XPA	XPM	XP%
Brandon McManus	DEN				5	5	3	2	4	4	5	3		17	14	55	82.40%	6	5	83.30%
Brett Maher	DAL				4	4	3	3	3	3	6	4		16	14	54	87.50%	9	8	88.90%
Ryan Succop	TAM				4	4	3	2	8	8	1	1		16	15	54	93.80%	8	8	100.00%
Chris Boswell	PIT				3	3	3	2	3	1	6	5		15	11	59	73.30%	8	8	100.00%
Daniel Carlson	LVR				5	5	5	5	1	1	4	4		15	15	55	100.00%	9	8	88.90%
Wil Lutz	NOR				1	1	6	5	4	2	4	3		15	11	60	73.30%	16	16	100.00%
Graham Gano	NYG						5	4	5	4	4	4		14	12	56	85.70%	11	11	100.00%
Greg Joseph	MIN				4	4	2	2	2	2	5	1		13	9	56	69.20%	14	12	85.70%
Younghoe Koo	ATL				3	3	1	1	4	3	5	3		13	10	54	76.90%	14	14	100.00%
Evan McPherson	CIN		1	1	3	2			5	4	4	4		13	11	59	84.60%	12	11	91.70%
Jason Myers	SEA				3	3	7	6	1	1	2	2		13	12	56	92.30%	15	14	93.30%
Eddy Pineiro	CAR						7	7	5	4	1	1		13	12	54	92.30%	7	7	100.00%
Cade York	CLE				3	3	4	4	3	2	3	2		13	11	58	84.60%	15	13	86.70%
Nick Folk	NWE		1	1	2	2	5	5	2	1	2	1		12	10	50	83.30%	15	15	100.00%
Justin Tucker	BAL				3	3	2	2	2	2	5	4		12	11	58	91.70%	18	17	94.40%
Greg Zuerlein	NYJ				1	1	3	3	4	3	4	3		12	10	57	83.30%	16	15	93.80%
Tyler Bass	BUF				1	1	7	6	3	2				11	9	49	81.80%	21	21	100.00%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU				2	2	1	1	6	5	2	2		11	10	51	90.90%	8	8	100.00%
Matt Gay	LAR				6	6	1	1	1	1	2	1		10	9	57	90.00%	11	11	100.00%
Dustin Hopkins	LAC				2	2	6	6	2	1				10	9	43	90.00%	12	12	100.00%
Chase McLaughlin	IND				2	2	1	1	3	3	4	3		10	9	52	90.00%	6	6	100.00%
Riley Patterson	JAX				4	4	2	1	3	3	1	1		10	9	52	90.00%	13	13	100.00%
Jason Sanders	MIA				2	2			5	5	3			10	7	49	70.00%	15	14	93.30%
Robbie Gould	SFO				4	3	1	1	3	1	1	1		9	6	51	66.70%	13	13	100.00%

[jjgold]

Kid very technical so cannot fade him

He must have an edge

[stevenash]

Kid very technical so cannot fade him

He must have an edge

Sometimes the books takes the edge away from you and juice it up, there are times I have to lay -114 or so on the over 6.5's
Sometimes the books adjust and offer 7.5 kicking points at say, +102.

I've been analyzing these total kicking points props for three years now,
There is a HUGE difference (besides the one point) between 6.5 total points and 7.5 total points.

You're going to need that scoring drive to get to 7.5
Big difference there.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Get em, Nasher!

[KVB]

Kid very technical so cannot fade him

He must have an edge

Don't forget experience.

Nash knows what he's looking at before ever making a calcualtion or stat reference. So, then, when he does dig deeper, he can apply experience that is invaluable and can't be taught.

At least I don't think it can be taught within a timeframe that is shorter than the actual gaining of experience itself.

I can tell you it's raining outside but you really don't know whay I mean until you go outside and get in the rain.

[KVB]

I will troll Nash a little here.

He once put up an NFL stat, started a thread, I think it was about the viking, some kind of 0-16 trend.

But the "trend" was actually like 9-8 or something.

It was long ago, maybe years. Nash was probably looking at the wrong stat line when he first looked at it or typed it, God knows I've been there on both counts.

[KVB]

We all have our stony moments.

Good Luck today Nasher!!!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Don't forget experience.

Nash knows what he's looking at before ever making a calcualtion or stat reference. So, then, when he does dig deeper, he can apply experience that is invaluable and can't be taught.

At least I don't think it can be taught within a timeframe that is shorter than the actual gaining of experience itself.

I can tell you it's raining outside but you really don't know whay I mean until you go outside and get in the rain.

KVb what if I look out the window and see rain???

[asiagambler]

McManus is just an average kicker, not elite

And that's despite having an advantage kicking in a favourable environment for half his games.

[KVB]

KVb what if I look out the window and see rain???

Well, it's better than not, I suppose.

But remember, the eyes can be so deceiving.

You can see a 3d box on a 2d surface. Something is lying to you, either your sense of touch or sense of sight.

Which one do you trust more? And how you do know that you're not just seeing shadows on a wall when you look out the window?

[KVB]

Never forget, DDD....

[stevenash]

He once put up an NFL stat, started a thread, I think it was about the viking, some kind of 0-16 trend.

But the "trend" was actually like 9-8 or something.

I think you may be confusing me with the Vikings and Bridgewater fable that Thomorino posted.
Now that was a barrel of fun I tell you what?



I seriously don't recall posting anything like that, I'm not saying it never happened, I'm over forty five years old now so I don't even recall what I had for breakfast most mornings.

I'll always own up to brainfarts though, I seriously don't remember that.
Anyways, Gano has an XP, need six more kicking points FTW.

[KVB]

Don't get me started on all this philosphy.

[stevenash]

McManus is just an average kicker, not elite

And that's despite having an advantage kicking in a favourable environment for half his games.

OK, I'll downgrade McManus from elite to rock steady.
Maybe elite is a tad hyperbolic, I'll cede to your point.

[asiagambler]

OK, I'll downgrade McManus from elite to rock steady.
Maybe elite is a tad hyperbolic, I'll cede to your point.

Definitely agree with you on Gano though. I remember he punted in college too for Florida. That's a nice weapon to have in case punter gets hurt

[KVB]

...I seriously don't recall posting anything like that, I'm not saying it never happened, I'm over forty five years old now so I don't even recall what I had for breakfast most mornings...

You won't have to look back too many days to see I completely forgot about posts I made the morning before, including the winning Akron and EMU plays in FlyMe...and that alligator one...lmaooooooooooo



I think this is it, double check this stat about Vikings in January...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3584410-interesting-vikings-trend.html

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/playoffs.htm

[stevenash]

Definitely agree with you on Gano though. I remember he punted in college too for Florida. That's a nice weapon to have in case punter gets hurt

He's not some weight room super freak, he's in tremendous condition and all, but just off of a first glance you'd never realize just how much of a cannon that leg is. And he's remarkably dead on accurate too.

Tucker will go down as the GOAT though, he already is IMO.

[stevenash]

My God, Gano is so automatic.

OK, that's four kicking points, one more measly FG FTW

[stevenash]

And there you have it.

Two FG's and an XP 7>6.5 before the half.

Same bet at 4pm, McManus OVER 6.5 kicking points, in Denver vs. Jets.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

And there you have it.

Two FG's and an XP 7>6.5 before the half.

Same bet at 4pm, McManus OVER 6.5 kicking points, in Denver vs. Jets.

[KVB]

And there you have it.

Two FG's and an XP 7>6.5 before the half.

Same bet at 4pm, McManus OVER 6.5 kicking points, in Denver vs. Jets.

Post Nomination

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[asiagambler]

And there you have it.

Two FG's and an XP 7>6.5 before the half.

Same bet at 4pm, McManus OVER 6.5 kicking points, in Denver vs. Jets.

[stevenash]

Thanks.
Denver punches it in for a TD.

Did you see the XP attempt?
It was quite possibly the worst snap and hold I've seen in quite awhile.
It goes down as a missed XP, none of it was on McManus.
If the prop goes down because of it, I'll own the loss.
There's no excuses or crying in sports wagering .

McManus has a 44 yard second quarter FG.
Sure would be comfortable right now sitting on four points than three.
(Well duh)

[jjgold]

nashy your a winner despite your weed problem

[DiggityDaggityDo]

nashy your a winner despite your weed problem

I heard he only smokes one joint a day now.

[pologq]

nash you have a weed problem? JJ throwing out gossip all day

[KVB]

I heard he only smokes one joint a day now.

That's funny, I heard it was just one pipe bowl a day...