NFL week 03- Contrarian Angles

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Hope things are good, Philly. Health & wealth for you.

Man, this new USC coach looks like a stud. Does anyone run a smoother offense? How long until he becomes HC of Dallas Cowboys?

Thanks CTG. I’m doing well.

Paying Riley close to 8 mil per year I hope he stays but agree he could be gone

[Nate rasta]

Not sure if this is contrarian but I'm loving the dolphins +6 at home.both teams are cooking with grease .it's division game. Should be a close game I think Miami wins outright

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not sure if this is contrarian but I'm loving the dolphins +6 at home.both teams are cooking with grease .it's division game. Should be a close game I think Miami wins outright

Good Luck, Nate. Thx for posting. Hope you bag another winner.

Yeah, contrarian feel for sure. Seeing that Bills look like world-beaters (at the moment).

One more subtle element to your selection. Bills did it on B2B primetime games. Thur/MNF, everyone and their brother saw how good they look.

[Nate rasta]

Ya mon! Thanks

[jackpot269]

Not sure if this is contrarian but I'm loving the dolphins +6 at home.both teams are cooking with grease .it's division game. Should be a close game I think Miami wins outright

I really like the over in this one too

[ThaTopMoron]

The public is all over the Chiefs against the Colts.
Not only do you fade the public. The Colts just came back from two road games and this is their home opener.
Bet on the Colts home dog home opener.

33% of bets but 41% of money on Colts

all over???

kc is -5.5 now... KC is going to smash because everyone here and all the sharps on predictions say they bet Colts or will bet Colts depending on who can play or not play.

Mahomes has never lost a game indoors and KC has had extra time to prep vs a team trying to run a scheme where they don't have the players to run it and are horrible vs the pass... where does Mahomes excel? extending the play??? he won't have to scramble to extend the play vs this defense... lol

[ChuckyTheGoat]

33% of bets but 41% of money on Colts

all over???

kc is -5.5 now... KC is going to smash because everyone here and all the sharps on predictions say they bet Colts or will bet Colts depending on who can play or not play.

Mahomes has never lost a game indoors and KC has had extra time to prep vs a team trying to run a scheme where they don't have the players to run it and are horrible vs the pass... where does Mahomes excel? extending the play??? he won't have to scramble to extend the play vs this defense... lol

I presented this idea of the "NFL Home Dog" being an old-school concept. There are bettors of a certain age that saw NFL Home Dogs perform to 55% ATS over a period of 20+ years, as if that was going to go on ad infinitum.

Even decent cappers still knee-jerk to the "Home Dog" rule. The modern-line is designed for precision, IMHO. They don't make too many errors.

Just look at these games. If you can't score, you're in trouble. My only question on this game is whether the Chief defense is exploitable.

I referenced the huge INT they got vs the Chargers. Ryan is one more bad game from being in a hell of a pickle. That's why they play the games.

[asiagambler]

Colts beat Chiefs like 2 years ago as 11 point underdogs. Could be a revenge game type scenario but on the other hand Reich just might know some ways to exploit the matchup against KC

[TheLock]

Green Bay +1 at Tampa Bay is very contrarian. I don’t think I have to explain why.

[ThaTopMoron]

Colts beat Chiefs like 2 years ago as 11 point underdogs. Could be a revenge game type scenario but on the other hand Reich just might know some ways to exploit the matchup against KC

that was MNF and Mahomes was playing injured and couldn't scramble and the Colts D played well... different defense, different coordinator... it was 3 years ago that is AGES ago

Reich can't exploit anyone he will go for it on 4th and 3 on his own 44 to start the game vs Chiefs and when his putrid call fails the game will be over the players will start going through the motions again like last week

[asiagambler]

lol Reich seems like a good coach sometimes but then a real bad one especially late in games

[ThaTopMoron]

lol Reich seems like a good coach sometimes but then a real bad one especially late in games

he has a nice "hopeful" attitude about week 3... glad to be back in front of home fans (yeah, go team!)

says they are going to keep doing what they have been doing for 2 weeks... just need to "do it better" ... believes "hopes" they will get better... yeah... they will play better at home vs getting shutout on the road but can they keep up with KC? lol

all the media availability... from him to M.Ryan is just "we need to do things a little better and everything will be fine"

it's all falling apart and they know it, no conviction behind anything they say

think Ryan is washed as a QB ... a stiff back there

[JAKEPEAVY21]

How is taking SF "contrarian" this week? Public hammered the Niners moving the line 3 points already.

I'll say Giants as an actual contrarian play. Moved from Giants -4.5 to -2.5 all because America's team upset the Bengals. Dallas played that game with a lot of heart as 7 point home dogs, while Cincy came out flat from their week 1 OT loss. Burrow still doesn't look right either, post-appendectomy.

This week I expect Cooper Rush to revert to normal behind his mediocre o-line and diminishing weapons. Playing on the road against a Giants fanbase that will be PUMPED their team is 2-0 going into MNF won't help Rush either.

Really just comes down to if Daniel Jones can avoid too many red zone turnovers.

Yeah I guess not, my bad.

[Brandt Moat]

Titans +2. My Raiders have NOT stopped the run in decades! Derek is a retard. Not sure if I completed the assignment correctly, but that is my pick to you.

[Brandt Moat]

Tank eww Wise One!

lol Reich seems like a good coach sometimes but then a real bad one especially late in games

[Brandt Moat]

Ahhrr verwey nice! Da old 2 year wevenge match. Verwey good angrel. Beat nobody knows about the secret Slant Eyed 2 year wevenge angrel.

Colts beat Chiefs like 2 years ago as 11 point underdogs. Could be a revenge game type scenario but on the other hand Reich just might know some ways to exploit the matchup against KC

[TheLock]

Green Bay +1 at Tampa Bay is very contrarian. I don’t think I have to explain why.

I just saw that a big WR on Bucs got suspended for one game so this now becomes a less contrarian line. Possibly a no play let’s see where the line goes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Guys, don't worry too about the "contrarian" tag. Just trying to identify winner.

My OPINION is that the pathway to NFL winners often comes on the sides that are hard to play. If it looks too ez, it probably is.

Of course, these games are hard to figure. GL, hope everyone gets to the winners' circle.

[MiDNiTe]

Liked the dolphins before the season started and bet them both games but this buffalo team is a juggernaut and Allen is amazing, buffalo for me and right now leans on Detroit and green bay

[Ponch]

When we talk about contrarian, are we saying that less % of bets are on those teams or that less handle is on them? If we're talking about handle %, then neither DET or GB are contrarian at this time.

DET Spread: 78% of Handle, 72% of bets
DET ML: 59% of Handle, 45% of bets
GB Spread: 57% of Handle, 40% of bets
GB ML: 58% of Handle, 44% of bets

[ChuckyTheGoat]

When we talk about contrarian, are we saying that less % of bets are on those teams or that less handle is on them? If we're talking about handle %, then neither DET or GB are contrarian at this time.

DET Spread: 78% of Handle, 72% of bets
DET ML: 59% of Handle, 45% of bets
GB Spread: 57% of Handle, 40% of bets
GB ML: 58% of Handle, 44% of bets

Ponch, thx for this info. Always interesting to dissect. Just MY OPINION:

*I don't put a ton of stock on the Moneyline market. Smaller sample space, IMHO.

Thank you for the Det/GB spread stats. I think it CAN be important. Even a mediocre gambler knows about what #s they view as value for the Fav/Dog.

Take GB as an example. I think it matters a lot about whether the bets were placed at GB +3 or GB +1.5. So often, I've heard guys talk about the "sharp" side, as if the line doesn't matter.

[budwiser]

Detroit is no longer a contrarian play.

If you want to put $ on the Redskins or the Jets, then yeah that will be a contrarian play every day of the week. Good luck with that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

*Car +3...1x
*Indy +6.5...4x
*Denver +1.5...offset with SF -1.5
*Detroit +6
*New Eng +3
*GBay +1.5...2x
*Mia +6...offset w/ Buf -6 (b4 the Bill def injuries announced)
*Ten +2

One truth about NFL betting. Value is very sensitive to the # you get. I abide by the idea that "NFL lines near kickoff have been hammered out to the point that any value has been sucked out."

GL. Have a nice wkend.

[TheLock]

I don’t think this one has been mentioned yet…..

The Falcons are +1 on the road. At this time, that’s contrarian enough for me.

[lakerboy]

I don’t think this one has been mentioned yet…..

The Falcons are +1 on the road. At this time, that’s contrarian enough for me.

I'm on them.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I don’t think this one has been mentioned yet…..

The Falcons are +1 on the road. At this time, that’s contrarian enough for me.

I'm on them.

Like Atl as well...they have looked halfway decent the first couple of games and playing hard.

[chargers4222]

People in this thread saying how KC is a public play yet everyone I've seen picking this game is saying the same things about how Colts is a "sharp play." At what point does the "sharp contrarian play" that everyone loves become the real public play?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

People in this thread saying how KC is a public play yet everyone I've seen picking this game is saying the same things about how Colts is a "sharp play." At what point does the "sharp contrarian play" that everyone loves become the real public play?

Charger, it's a fair question.

I really think that 30 years ago...the lines weren't so sharp...and the betting public wasn't so aware. Fans would bet into strong teams more indiscriminately. Now, even your average bettor knows that Home Dogs have had some historical value.

I no longer think that Home Dogs are worthy of a knee-jerk play. Have to assess the matchup and determine the appropriate number. As I stated above, there's a big difference w/ the # on your ticket. I'd argue that "Colts +7" looks like a +EV hold...and that 5.5 is looking more like the true Median of the distribution.

[jackpot269]

Charger, it's a fair question.

I really think that 30 years ago...the lines weren't so sharp...and the betting public wasn't so aware. Fans would bet into strong teams more indiscriminately. Now, even your average bettor knows that Home Dogs have had some historical value.

I no longer think that Home Dogs are worthy of a knee-jerk play. Have to assess the matchup and determine the appropriate number. As I stated above, there's a big difference w/ the # on your ticket. I'd argue that "Colts +7" looks like a +EV hold...and that 5.5 is looking more like the true Median of the distribution.

30 years ago we had to work a lot harder to get the information we wanted, now of coarse its a few clicks away!!
Internet research, has changed the sports gaming industry, but win percent of the average gambler has not improved much, if any!!

[scorpion896]

People in this thread saying how KC is a public play yet everyone I've seen picking this game is saying the same things about how Colts is a "sharp play." At what point does the "sharp contrarian play" that everyone loves become the real public play?

Facts!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

30 years ago we had to work a lot harder to get the information we wanted, now of coarse its a few clicks away!!
Internet research, has changed the sports gaming industry, but win percent of the average gambler has not improved much, if any!!

Salud, jack. I actually think it's much harder. I really think there used to be a Dog bias based on action toward public teams.

Now, any Fav/Dog split is virtually 50/50. No obvious edge. I'll give one injury info story to exemplify changing of the times:

*Many years (mid 1970s) Raiders have a good team. Are going into weekend as heavy 15.5 road favorite. Before any reliable injury reports.

Guy at the airport sees that Stabler did not board the plane. Hears the buzz that Stabler is out. David Hum is going to get the start.

Was told that the line didn't budge for 48 hours. Some gameday action when they see he's not warming up. Raiders win a low-scoring game by 6 behind Hum.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Facts!

This ties out to my theory of more balance between Fav/Dog bettors. Yes, the modern bettor is wiser. The modern bettor is trying to extract Dog value if he thinks the # is too fat.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

*Car +3...1x
*Indy +6.5...4x
*Denver +1.5...offset with SF -1.5
*Detroit +6
*New Eng +3
*GBay +1.5...2x
*Mia +6...offset w/ Buf -6 (b4 the Bill def injuries announced)
*Ten +2

One truth about NFL betting. Value is very sensitive to the # you get. I abide by the idea that "NFL lines near kickoff have been hammered out to the point that any value has been sucked out."

GL. Have a nice wkend.

These have done pretty well again this week. Excluding Den/SF and Mia/Buf games. On consensus picks:

*Four guys got there on Colts. 7-1 ATS overall. Only loss on New Eng.

BALT played well. New Eng had a couple key errors, could have covered the #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2x on GB +1.5 pending, btw.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, props to edawg and Polo. I'm counting Det +6 as Polo's 1st pick. So, each guy 3-0 with a winner each week!