128 Man Tournament question

[fearless]

This board seems to be split in two right now. There's a group that thinks that the contestants who are taking the big college football moneyline favorites are gonna dominate the first round. There's another group who thinks that the contestants who are taking the big college football moneyline favorites are in for a terrible surprise.

Which group are you in and why?

[onthewhat]

Yes they will

The theory is that if u can bet it at a book, it can be bet in contest. Who the hell is laying 75k to win $300 on texas ml? There is nothing to lose in this free contest, and laying -2000 ml's is the best strategy.

[SamsNCharge99]

I agree w/ Herman and again for the 100th time I'll say again. even if 1 -1300 loses and you win your BEST BET and go 15-1, you are still up 4 units which may be good enough to win.

So, YES this strategy is the CORRECT way to go.

SBR messed up in the 1st round. Next round, no BASE BETTING and everything will be good.

But for now, take advantage of this which me and Herman will do

[fearless]

I put a parlay in with the ten picks I used for the first round. It pays off at about -150. So, even though my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall out of all the contestants, according to the market I'm still the favorite to beat him. If I hit my parlay I finish with +12 units and since he will have used his sixteen picks already, I'll win no matter what.

Amazing, my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall and yet I'm a -150 favorite to come back and beat him.

It's mind boggling to me. Saturday's the day when it all goes down.

[fearless]

I agree w/ Herman and again for the 100th time I'll say again. even if 1 -1300 loses and you win your BEST BET and go 15-1, you are still up 4 units which may be good enough to win.

So, YES this strategy is the CORRECT way to go.

SBR messed up in the 1st round. Next round, no BASE BETTING and everything will be good.

But for now, take advantage of this which me and Herman will do

It's the correct strategy, I agree.

However, there's tons of experienced cappers like LT Profits, The Prick, jjgold, UntilTheEndofTime, etc. who aren't using the strategy at all.

I want to hear their reasons for not using the strategy and I hope they post them here.

[SamsNCharge99]

I mean, I could have done the real way....would have gone 5-0 on Monday and +5, then yesterday, I think 1-3, -3.something

so overall, would have been up 1.something...not bad, but still...I'd rather take advantage of this and DO WORK next round

[onthewhat]

I would say some aren't doing it because it is shady

You are guaranteed to win if you do this

Me personally, i'm like herm edwards...

"YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME"

[InTheHole]

I think there should be no ML's for NCAAF/NFL (this gets around the "it's out of our power") excuse

[milwaukee mike]

allowing texas/usc to be a best bet is absolutely ridiculous. and not taking them would be equally ridiculous.
i wouldn't say you are "guaranteed to win" but the odds are certainly better of getting through the round by taking the huge chalk, especially texas and usc.

[THEGREAT30]

I'm leading the board with +9.66 and College Football has not even began. You guys are weak crybabies.

[SamsNCharge99]

I think there should be no ML's for NCAAF/NFL (this gets around the "it's out of our power") excuse

next round, they said there will be base betting, as in....if you wanna bet a -200 favorite, it will be 1 unit to win .5 units...so -10000 would be like 1 to win.10

and that would be for everything. -110 odds would be 1 to win .94 or something like that

This makes it so we all can't pick the huge chalk and advance

[Cabo]

What happens in case of a tie, say a heads up contest both people go 12-0 +12 units?

[SamsNCharge99]

I'm leading the board with +9.66 and College Football has not even began. You guys are weak crybabies.

who cares.....IDC if I'm in 64th place after the 1st round, it's the same as getting 1st.

We all start the same come 2nd round.

[SamsNCharge99]

What happens in case of a tie, say a heads up contest both people go 12-0 +12 units?

as that may happen, I feel it won't happen. I'll say NO match-up will end in a tie

if it does however, IDK..good question

[juuso]

I put a parlay in with the ten picks I used for the first round. It pays off at about -150. So, even though my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall out of all the contestants, according to the market I'm still the favorite to beat him. If I hit my parlay I finish with +12 units and since he will have used his sixteen picks already, I'll win no matter what.

Amazing, my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall and yet I'm a -150 favorite to come back and beat him.

It's mind boggling to me. Saturday's the day when it all goes down.

I didn't know we are allowed to take huge Football favorites. Been playing only bases, mixing ml's -1.5 rl's and totals, winning good portion of them. Any case, good luck man, you have a good shot of winning them all, but there's still very real chance of losing one of the huge faves. -150 on parlay might not be totally fair price, considering some of the lines on the huge faves have high vig and the vig might be slightly slanted towards the huge favorite.

It will be interesting to see how it goes!

[THEGREAT30]

who cares.....IDC if I'm in 64th place after the 1st round, it's the same as getting 1st.

We all start the same come 2nd round.

I agree. This should not even be a topic. Play to win. If you think chalking will get the job done go for it. My point is to say chalkers will dominate is not true and irrelevant at the end of the 1st round those with more points than there opponent will have dominated. I'm not a chalker in my everyday betting so I don't change my style for the contest, but chalk away.

[StraitShooter]

your point is a good one O Great30

[StraitShooter]

this will be hilarious if just one big fav -7/800 or more loses

[THEGREAT30]

this will be hilarious if just one big fav -7/800 or more loses

Remember Mich vs App St?

[SamsNCharge99]

this will be hilarious if just one big fav -7/800 or more loses

wrong again, some ppl just don't know what they are talking about

I agree w/ Herman and again for the 100th time I'll say again. even if 1 -1300 loses and you win your BEST BET and go 15-1, you are still up 4 units which may be good enough to win. So, YES this strategy is the CORRECT way to go. SBR messed up in the 1st round. Next round, no BASE BETTING and everything will be good. But for now, take advantage of this which me and Herman will do

[StraitShooter]

wrong again, some ppl just don't know what they are talking about

i am wrong by saying if a big ML fav loses alot of people who thought they had a free pass will be mistaken?

ok..I get it..I am always wrong "again"..and you are always right

just my opinion buddy..we will see what happens when the dust settles

[StraitShooter]

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Honestly i dont no enough about college football to take those huge ml's im obviously taking texas and usc and thats probably it. I only bet the 3 major sports. With my picks so far at 7-0 i figure ill go 10-0 +12 units and i should be good. and i figure at least one of those huge moneylines will loose and shit theres alot higher ML's than 1300 that can loose sammy...

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

It's the correct strategy, I agree.

However, there's tons of experienced cappers like LT Profits, The Prick, jjgold, UntilTheEndofTime, etc. who aren't using the strategy at all.

I want to hear their reasons for not using the strategy and I hope they post them here.

I call bullshit, you dont put odds up on my match up because " you dont no me", now im a experienced capper.....please.

[StraitShooter]

UntilTheNDofTimE..All I know is I looked at your record and you went 7-0 in MLB

[THEGREAT30]

I call bullshit, you dont put odds up on my match up because " you dont no me", now im a experienced capper.....please.

A lot of guys think there point counts make them experts or authority figures. They don't notice those of us that don't go around making lock and play of the year threads calling attention to ourselves.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

well i dont really post plays cause you get bashed and then all the negativity around here is horrendous.

for instance....

Jellob asks....How do free plays work?
onner replies.....
Lol, and you were making fun of me for having a bad night...

Did you start betting today?

Lol....wow


i no its all in fun but some people need to grow up and its like this with new posters.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

I put a parlay in with the ten picks I used for the first round. It pays off at about -150. So, even though my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall out of all the contestants, according to the market I'm still the favorite to beat him. If I hit my parlay I finish with +12 units and since he will have used his sixteen picks already, I'll win no matter what.

Amazing, my opponent is currently ranked number 3 overall and yet I'm a -150 favorite to come back and beat him.

It's mind boggling to me. Saturday's the day when it all goes down.

you can do parlays in this contests? are there updated odds anywhere on match ups?

[StraitShooter]

you can do parlays in this contests? are there updated odds anywhere on match ups?

I think he means parlayed it at at book to CYA..not sure about the strategy behind it though

[exstatman]

One thing nobody seems to mention is a player way behind still has a chance to use a best bet on a +500 type and make up a ton of ground. Any matchup can still come down to the last game.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

One thing nobody seems to mention is a player way behind still has a chance to use a best bet on a +500 type and make up a ton of ground. Any matchup can still come down to the last game.

wow very true

[StraitShooter]

One thing nobody seems to mention is a player way behind still has a chance to use a best bet on a +500 type and make up a ton of ground. Any matchup can still come down to the last game.

Strategy for the 128-Man Bracket Tournament fearless

[BobHarvey]

I'm down three units.....what's my strategy. Bet Texas, USC, Florida etc. to get back in it? I'm just saying....

[lakerboy]

oh well im done anyways lets see how it goes from here out

[StraitShooter]

Your strat is simple..take a couple ML dogs..like +3-600..one of them wins and Mr big ML Man will have a battle