Credit To Pavyracer: People that bet on sides are coin flippers

pologq · 08-26-22, 08:00 AM

JJ give us a winner for the weekend

pavyracer · 08-26-22, 08:50 AM

Just to be clear this comment was for college football and not for every damn sport.

Point was when a book hangs a big spread line around a critical number it is trying to force action on both sides so the bettor is betting on a coin flip at where the score is going to land at the end.

jjgold · 08-26-22, 08:59 AM

Just think about it 75% of any sport pointspread covers are pure luck crazy things happen to make your bet win or lose

Of course if you get -2 and it closed - 4 you have a massive edge But that doesn’t happen much beating closers track it

pologq · 08-26-22, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Just to be clear this comment was for college football and not for every damn sport.

Point was when a book hangs a big spread line around a critical number it is trying to force action on both sides so the bettor is betting on a coin flip at where the score is going to land at the end.

SlickFazzer · 08-26-22, 10:08 AM

Paver is sharp.

Listen to him.

flyingillini · 08-26-22, 10:10 AM

Pavster has been a staple of the forum. There are only a handful of guys here that actually cap games and do the research that is needed. He is one of them. I would tail him blindly without any question. He is one of the good guys we have here!

SlickFazzer · 08-26-22, 10:11 AM

His soccer threads are very well organized, and plays are documented nicely.

Roscoe_Word · 08-26-22, 10:22 AM

Good bettin thoughts, Racer...............

d2bets · 08-26-22, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Just to be clear this comment was for college football and not for every damn sport.

Point was when a book hangs a big spread line around a critical number it is trying to force action on both sides so the bettor is betting on a coin flip at where the score is going to land at the end.

If the number is sharp it could be a coinflip, but it isn't necessarily so. Surest sign of a coinflip is the line barely budges.

KVB · 08-26-22, 12:37 PM

If you view it that way there will always be some of us with a weighted coin. Without it there would no market for the rest of you to bet into. Some of the market participants are essentially creating and molding that market for the rest of the bettors...for many reasons.

Remember, it doesn't have to be a coin flip, that's directly related to research and the success of that research.

It is most certainly wrong to say all spread bettors are coin flippers, unless you are acknowledging the weighted coin.

College football, and basketbal, for example, have huge spread and total swings, making it ripe for a weighted coin. Not all markets are efficient at all times. In fact, some rarely are at any time.

But if you think picking a spread is always just a coin flip, and don't create a better line to compare to, you won't understand that last statement or ever see the market out of balance, except perhaps subjectively. Sometimes you know when a line is just "wrong" but that's usually related to short term performance...with a the dangers of pure subjectivity.