If you are planning to back Dallas Sunday night

[Snowball]

Snowy lol tried to tell us

But then back peddled

I only went small but did win with GSW ML and Rangers in the round robin.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3699915-if-you-planning-back-dallas-sunday-night-p2.html#post30886329

[pavyracer]

Wrong team favored tonight. This Warriors team is old and they want to get done in 4 games if possible.

Easiest money I have ever made. You guys don't know how to read the NBA playoffs and pay too much attention to previous games irrelevant information.

Let me tell you this rookies. In the playoffs you don't fade a hot team. Never!

[d2bets]

Easiest money I have ever made. You guys don't know how to read the NBA playoffs and pay too much attention to previous games irrelevant information.

Let me tell you this rookies. In the playoffs you don't fade a hot team. Never!

Every win is easy in retrospect and every loss was a stupid mistake in retrospect. Or at least that's the perception. The truth is not so clear-cut. Call is results-bias.

[KVB]

Every win is easy in retrospect and every loss was a stupid mistake in retrospect. Or at least that's the perception. The truth is not so clear-cut. Call is results-bias.

Good post.

Because it is the perception. Truth is some wins are lucky and some losses are just plain unlucky, no mistakes made.

We have to accept that we are dealing with probabilities, there will be losses.

This Forum has too much emphasis on the "winning play tonight, or right now" rather than any thinking about the winning bet.

Which doesn't always win.

To tie it to this game, the Dallas 1st half bet ml at -155, my first buy, was a good bet that lost.

But then the line moved, too far in fact, and then +155 started to become a good bet. I got +170 but could have done better. +3.5 was to some, also a good bet.

Those were good bets that won.

In the end it was a last second shot for the Warriors to take a one point lead at the end of the half.

Point is, a good bet isn't always a winning bet and this 1st half line in last night's game is a great example of that principle as you could get a good bet on both sides.

[KVB]

Easiest money I have ever made. You guys don't know how to read the NBA playoffs and pay too much attention to previous games irrelevant information.

Let me tell you this rookies. In the playoffs you don't fade a hot team. Never!

This poster represents the perfect example of the "square" public player that doesn't care what number he gets, because "ABC Team will win!"

Even with success in spot betting, this type of bettor can get seriously shorted on the odds. He might get the best of some lines, but surely not overall.

But it is exactly this type of bettor that helps make the markets inefficient.

So for those watching screens, seeing who's using what no vig line, using their calculators, and tying in trading with some capping or just my video about the markets, be glad these bettors exist.

The US audience is loaded with them.

[IBetYou]

This poster represents the perfect example of the "square" public player that doesn't care what number he gets, because "ABC Team will win!"

Even with success in spot betting, this type of bettor can get seriously shorted on the odds. He might get the best of some lines, but surely not overall.

But it is exactly this type of bettor that helps make the markets inefficient.

So for those watching screens, seeing who's using what no vig line, using their calculators, and tying in trading with some capping or just my video about the markets, be glad these bettors exist.

The US audience is loaded with them.

I don't agree with this. You DON'T need to care too much about the number you get if the number you get is implicit in the betting angle i.e the betting lines are even more predictable than the outcome. Extremely rare is it that some radical line catches me off guard.

[IBetYou]

Warriors are relatively hot since dumping Kuminga from the rotation. Steve Kerr got a chance to sit back and watch Mike Brown penetrate up while he was out with covid. He saw that Kuminga was turning it over and missing shots. Big surprise in game 1 was was Kuminga being a healthy scratch. Burnt fingers for me.

I think more over, for this recent game, was it was a particularly hard loss for the Mavs to bounce back from. Have seen teams bounce back from such losses before, of course, but in general it is demoralising to blow such an opportunity. They made some poor tactical errors in the 2nd half (attacking Looney rather than Curry, over-helping on Curry on the defensive end) which is often a cause of dissent.

[IBetYou]

Oh yeah, and coach Kidd effectively telling his shooters they had too much confidence through the media. Egregious error.

[KVB]

I don't agree with this. You DON'T need to care too much about the number you get if the number you get is implicit in the betting angle i.e the betting lines are even more predictable than the outcome. Extremely rare is it that some radical line catches me off guard.

The number and price is the ONLY thing you need to worry about.

The difference between success failure or the difference between less and more failure will come down to the bettors ability to calculate no vig lines and eventually get the best of the market.

It doesn't require being a market leading quant, you can let your "sharper books" do that work for you.

But what it does require is line shopping and at least some sharp trading.

...

...

[d2bets]

The number and price is the ONLY thing you need to worry about.

The difference between success failure or the difference between less and more failure will come down to the bettors ability to calculate no vig lines and eventually get the best of the market.

It doesn't require being a market leading quant, you can let your "sharper books" do that work for you.

But what it does require is line shopping and at least some sharp trading.

Of course you're right...and the reply is gonna be:
"it doesn't really matter if I get +3.5 or +2.5, it hardly ever matters"!
"What do you mean by "hardly ever"?
"Like, maybe 1 out of 20 times. Not often enough to care"
"Oh really? So you don't care if you go 10-10 instead of 11-9? How about 100-100 instead of 110-90? Or 1,100-900 vs. 1,000-1,000"?

It's like the difference between a batter that hits .300 vs. .250. That's only 1 extra hit in 20 AB's. But the guy that hits .300 might be an all-star while the guy who hits .250 might not make the team.

[IBetYou]

Of course you're right...and the reply is gonna be:
"it doesn't really matter if I get +3.5 or +2.5, it hardly ever matters"!
"What do you mean by "hardly ever"?
"Like, maybe 1 out of 20 times. Not often enough to care"
"Oh really? So you don't care if you go 10-10 instead of 11-9? How about 100-100 instead of 110-90? Or 1,100-900 vs. 1,000-1,000"?

It's like the difference between a batter that hits .300 vs. .250. That's only 1 extra hit in 20 AB's. But the guy that hits .300 might be an all-star while the guy who hits .250 might not make the team.

I get all that. But we're not talking about shopping around for better lines here. Obviously I'll bet with the book that is offering a half-point better on the spread (rarely anything more than that in my experience).

What we're really talking about here is DO I or DON'T I? I regularly know if I'm going to bet a side before I even see the odds because it's all relative... if I feel I value something on one side of the race more than the books/ market then I can deduce that there will be value in betting it.

[IBetYou]

I guess you could say it comes down to experience. If you've been betting the playoffs a long time you know that the odds for game 4 will be a point or two shorter than for game 3 because it's a closeout game, and the expectation is that the side facing elimination will have low morale. There's rarely any surprises on the odds front, especially this late in the season.

[pavyracer]

I'm posting winners here and I'm getting reprimanded for not betting the best number.

I'd rather have a winning ticket than a losing ticket with the best number.

[stevenash]

I'm posting winners here and I'm getting reprimanded for not betting the best number.

I'd rather have a winning ticket than a losing ticket with the best number.