NBA Home Dog Parlay +892

d2bets · 04-22-22, 03:58 PM

Not the worst idea.

All the road teams won yesterday. Might be a reversal of fortunes theme tonight.

But I think you can find a better payout, more like +925 at least.

KVB · 04-22-22, 04:17 PM

Good Luck Snowball.

It's a good time talk about parlay.

Why does snowy get +892 on this parlay?

I have often seen at SBR, including some guy named Justin7 in a video, "incorrectly" calculate the vigorish on parlays. Many claim a parlay to be just one bet, of three games, anbd make their calculation from there.

But it doesn't work that way.

A parlay is not one bet of three games, it's three bets, parlayed together.

Let me explain.

If Snowy puts $100 on this parlay, he is betting $100 on a game then parlaying it into the next game.

If he wins game 1, the +105, he wins $105 and returns $205.

He now takes that $205 and bets it on the next game, Chicago, at +125.

If it he wins, he wins $265.25 and returns the original $205 bet for $461.25.

Now $461.25 it is bet into New Orleans, at +115.

This makes a $530.44 win, and returns the original $461.25 for $991.69.

There's your +892 winnings and Snowy's original $100 bet being returned.

Whether the games go off together or not, this is how a parlay is calculated. When you calculating the vigorish, you don't just count the $100 bet, you count ALL the risk I listed above.

Not one bet, on three games; but, rather, one bet, parlayed into another bet and into another bet.

In this way, a parlay is a good way to decrease risk, risking just one unit for 3 bets, and increase reward, by compounding the payout. This is useful for a variety of reasons.

johnnyvegas13 · 04-22-22, 04:18 PM

I could see 2/3

d2bets · 04-22-22, 04:23 PM

Entered this on Fanduel right now at +951. That's a pretty big difference.

KVB · 04-22-22, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Entered this on Fanduel right now at +951. That's a pretty big difference.

It's all in the moneylines you bought.

And yes, despite JJ Gold's proclamations, there are differences everywhere.

I know that you know this, D2. Good stuff.

Where's Gold now to talk about books following one source?...

Snowball · 04-22-22, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

I could see 2/3

yeah why I took Atlanta and Pelicans separate.

Snowball · 04-22-22, 05:07 PM

Last night I had a dream about a tiny baby mouse falling right in front of my face.

Just went out to the garage and reached into a bag where work gloves are... felt something soft on my fingers,
dropped the gloves and 3 pink baby mice fell out. Unreal but true.

d2bets · 04-22-22, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Last night I had a dream about a tiny baby mouse falling right in front of my face.

Just went out to the garage and reached into a bag where work gloves are... felt something soft on my fingers,
dropped the gloves and 3 pink baby mice fell out. Unreal but true.

Odds of that at least +6210. Parlay is a lock now.

d2bets · 04-22-22, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by KVB

It's all in the moneylines you bought.

And yes, despite JJ Gold's proclamations, there are differences everywhere.

I know that you know this, D2. Good stuff.

Where's Gold now to talk about books following one source?...

And this is why I'm less of a fan of parlays. How likely is it that you find the best odds on all 3 legs at the same book at the same time? You can simulate a parlay as you said, but with preferred lines. Then again, with events simultaneous like this, you can't.

KVB · 04-22-22, 05:55 PM

Sometimes they don't all have to he the best odds, just one of them does.

I know it's an extra step in the process, but if you consider schedule, and you can put yourself in a position to hedge, cancelling the juice it would normally cost. Soak it up in the varying odds. There's many ways to do it, this is one.

You can bet on other things than the games, in a sense. How good at you at predicting line movment?

I can make advantage Forecasts that predict line movement at a far greater rate than they do at predicting the winners, or commensurate moneyline percentages. And when I predict the line movement there is higher success, on many fronts. It brings in another set of percentages to stack.

If you have a third game, a wheel game if you will, you might be able to put yourself in a position to win.

We get games of varying probability of success. Whether you are using math, modeling, experience, intuition, whatever, each time your method will have a probabilty.

Everyone's had that game, they just know they got right, and do. The subjective bettor may have seen benefits from an alignment of factors that gave him a huge edge that night.

More advanced bettors know what I'm talking about, too. They see it in the percentages. The percentages, we call them diamonds in the rough.

In all cases, it's the line that the bettor is looking that makes the difference.

And when you get a diamond in the rough, or something in the zone, you might be able use it to put yourself in a position to win later in the parlay.

The earlier the lines open, the earlier a bettor can take advantage.

Make no mistake, in a sport like the NFL, there can be quite a bit of lot of trading on Sunday that is simply vigorish being offset by smart money that is spread out.

These fukkers even incorporate teasers now.