Sixers -190 series is a good deal

[Snowball]

i like this line
there is a possibility to sell it and make decent profit before a game is played in Toronto
it feels underpriced and could move higher
exactly 5.4% BR so far but may add in coming days

[Snowball]

if Brookyn wins tonight I will move that ML fundage over to more of this.
get up to around 14% BR.

[Fishhead]

A tad high at -190

Circa at -190/+165

[Snowball]

I didn't care for that juice either but the Game 1 lines aren't established yet
there is a lot of time for the public to start hammering
do not be surprised if -200 this weekend

[jjgold]

Snowy you never saw a chalk you did not like

[Snowball]

Snowy you never saw a chalk you did not like

ok take Coucaud/Simon tomorrow in doubles @ +135

[Fishhead]

NHL from now until CUP hoisted

Get a clue

[coop-dog]

raps are not that good to be honest philly may sweep imo

[Snowball]

76ers were hugely impressive

Series now about
-430/+330

which is a really big adjustment after just 1 home game.

[lakerboy]

76ers were hugely impressive

Series now about
-430/+330

which is a really big adjustment after just 1 home game.

Not a huge adjustment at all.

Look at the Denver price. It was +230 going in. It's+450 now.

Tor went from +160 to +340. That's actually less and the situation is similar.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Not a huge adjustment at all.

Look at the Denver price. It was +230 going in. It's+450 now.

Tor went from +160 to +340. That's actually less and the situation is similar.

LB was it me or did VanVleet look slow? Not sure if he’s injured

[lakerboy]

LB was it me or did VanVleet look slow? Not sure if he’s injured

I didn't watch the game. He has been overused this season.

[Snowball]

Not a huge adjustment at all.

Look at the Denver price. It was +230 going in. It's+450 now.

Tor went from +160 to +340. That's actually less and the situation is similar.

They are actually identical, the ratio line increases are 1.96 to 2.0; This is higher than usual.. it could have something to do with expanded public pounding winners with legal sports wagering. Winning the first home game is somewhat expected and is supposed to be figured in to the original line bias. It doesn't make sense that Philly or GS are twice as likely to win the series just because they did their jobs and won a home game.

[Snowball]

I don't think I will hedge, even at +900. 76ers are highly likely to win at least 1 in Toronto.

[jjgold]

I do not think Harden looks great, you can see he has aged and slower

[johnnyvegas13]

I don't think I will hedge, even at +900. 76ers are highly likely to win at least 1 in Toronto.

Unless raps get healthy real quick they r done

[Seaweed]

Raps win 7

[budwiser]

From ESPN
Doc Rivers has 29 losses with a chance to clinch a playoff series, the most losses by a head coach in NBA history. His .341 win percentage is the worst all time among coaches with 20+ games.

[budwiser]

Remember Embiid was a walking hospital. I can'r remember the last time the guy stayed healthy this long, if ever

Harden is a hamstring pull away from being out for a week or crippled

Back then we had a thread talking about how potent the Raptors are. I said don't do it. The only way you bet on a Canadian team is as a dog, and at +900 why not throw the McDonald's value meal at it (xtra small) and be entertained.

Because after all.. ti is STILL Doc Rivers. Had one of the most powerful teams in NBA history with the Clippers and choked a 3-1 lead. He has blown 3-1 leads 3 times, imagine the odds you would have gotten every time.

Say the Raps get swept-very possible. what do you have to lose-not much.

[Snowball]

From ESPN
Doc Rivers has 29 losses with a chance to clinch a playoff series, the most losses by a head coach in NBA history. His .341 win percentage is the worst all time among coaches with 20+ games.

one reason.

LEBRON.

[coop-dog]

raps are not that good to be honest philly may sweep imo

hmmmmm

[sk0002]

This sixers team will be exposed, if not by the raptors it will surely happen next round, they got lucky raptors are dealing with bunch of injuries and the refs ain’t exactly helping either, both homers crew of referees for both home sixers games. Things could change in a hurry, knowing doc rivers reputation.

[sk0002]

This sixers team will be exposed, if not by the raptors it will surely happen next round, they got lucky raptors are dealing with bunch of injuries and the refs ain’t exactly helping either, both homers crew of referees for both home sixers games. Things could change in a hurry, knowing doc rivers reputation.

[Snowball]

Sry bump
Embiiiiid!!!

[Snowball]

Here's the latest from Philly, if you can pick a side and feel confident about it now, good luck.

Joel Embiid says Philadelphia 76ers 'fine' after Game 5 loss to Toronto Raptors, wants James Harden to take more shots

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33807854/joel-embiid-says-philadelphia-76ers-fine-game-5-loss-toronto-raptors-wants-james-harden-take-more-shots

I just completely hedged out the profit @ +425 Raptors, with no side leaned. Net: 24% gain no matter who wins.
I came close to putting what would be the whole Philly payout on Raptors but I can't because it's NBA history, and that last game in Philly is going to be a brawl. As a handicapper I just want to move on mentally and not get drained by this series anymore. gl whichever side you like if you go with this series wrapup.

[d2bets]

Here's the latest from Philly, if you can pick a side and feel confident about it now, good luck.

Joel Embiid says Philadelphia 76ers 'fine' after Game 5 loss to Toronto Raptors, wants James Harden to take more shots

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33807854/joel-embiid-says-philadelphia-76ers-fine-game-5-loss-toronto-raptors-wants-james-harden-take-more-shots

I just completely hedged out the profit @ +425 Raptors, with no side leaned. Net: 24% gain no matter who wins.
I came close to putting what would be the whole Philly payout on Raptors but I can't because it's NBA history, and that last game in Philly is going to be a brawl. As a handicapper I just want to move on mentally and not get drained by this series anymore. gl whichever side you like if you go with this series wrapup.

Nice idea in theory, but +425 is real bad. Much better odds available all over the place. I see +590, +550, etc.

If +425 is all you have, then better to just take Tor Game 6 and go from there.

[Snowball]

Nice idea in theory, but +425 is real bad. Much better odds available all over the place. I see +590, +550, etc.

If +425 is all you have, then better to just take Tor Game 6 and go from there.

It just moved to +500 at my book.
my bad luck. To be honest I hopped because I thought it would go the other way.
I really don't think it has any business being over +400 from a probability perspective.
I might just take a little TOR now and sell it back if they win Gm6. No biggie.

[jjgold]

Phila done

Harden horrific and washed up

[Snowball]

In real terms actually I don't see how it's not around +300
which would make them 2/1 dogs in Gm7 and the pk 1/1 in Gm 6
at 500 they are offering in a 60% premium above these if you take TOR
and Philly bettors are laying huge premium which looks flat out silly for anyone to do.

[d2bets]

In real terms actually I don't see how it's not around +300
which would make them 2/1 dogs in Gm7 and the pk 1/1 in Gm 6
at 500 they are offering in a 60% premium above these if you take TOR
and Philly bettors are laying huge premium which looks flat out silly for anyone to do.

+100/+200 parlay=+500. I made a math error this morning, it happens.

[JIBBBY]

Embids thumb is jacked, it was only a matter of time before he suffered another injury. Harden past his prime. Philly is done. GO RAPTORS!!

[Snowball]

+100/+200 parlay=+500. I made a math error this morning, it happens.

I do not believe that in reality, the odds that Toronto can win the next game at home and beat Philly again on the road in this condition are 1 in 5, much less 1 in 6-7 if you're on the Philly juice side. So it's not just about math odds its about probabilities outside of the betting odds.

Taking each case, Game 6 at 1/1 (which in reality is in Toronto's favor, not 1/1), and then granting 2/1 for Toronto in Game 7 (not a given if Philly gets blown out again and VanVleet is back) already overestimate Philly as they are.
The +60% premium (which you represent as the parlay multiplier) is not a math error it's a rhetorical phrase; whether I call it a premium or you call it a multiplier is irrelevant to my point that I don't think it's justifiable, and our job is to find out where the oddsmakers deviate from real probabiity that has nothing to do with gambling odds.

[d2bets]

I do not believe that in reality, the odds that Toronto can win the next game at home and beat Philly again on the road in this condition are 1 in 5, much less 1 in 6-7 if you're on the Philly juice side. So it's not just about math odds its about probabilities outside of the betting odds.

Taking each case, Game 6 at 1/1 (which in reality is in Toronto's favor, not 1/1), and then granting 2/1 for Toronto in Game 7 (not a given if Philly gets blown out again and VanVleet is back) already overestimate Philly as they are.
The +60% premium (which you represent as the parlay multiplier) is not a math error it's a rhetorical phrase; whether I call it a premium or you call it a multiplier is irrelevant to my point that I don't think it's justifiable, and our job is to find out where the oddsmakers deviate from real probabiity that has nothing to do with gambling odds.

You lost me.

You said "I don't see how it's (series price) not around +300"
If it was +300 that would imply Game 7 at +100 (not +200 like you said)

You can have whatever opinion you want, but math is math.

[Snowball]

You lost me.

You said "I don't see how it's (series price) not around +300"
If it was +300 that would imply Game 7 at +100 (not +200 like you said)

You can have whatever opinion you want, but math is math.

I was mentally weighing the likelihood of the contingency that Toronto could win the series, and felt it should be in the +300-400 range. 100 for Gm 6 and 200 for Gm 7 is +300. You're conflating the payout with a parlay multiplier, as was I, but I referred to it as a "premium"; this is six of one, half dozen of the other. Philly is overpriced, in my opinion. Maybe due to worries about VanVleet.

[d2bets]

I was mentally weighing the likelihood of the contingency that Toronto could win the series, and felt it should be in the +300-400 range. 100 for Gm 6 and 200 for Gm 7 is +300. You're conflating the payout with a parlay multiplier, as was I, but I referred to it as a "premium"; this is six of one, half dozen of the other. Philly is overpriced, in my opinion. Maybe due to worries about VanVleet.

I'm not conflating anything. The Tor series line IS a parlay that they will win Game 6 and win Game 7. Nothing more, nothing less. And if the line for Game 6 is +100 and Game 7 is +200 then the equivalent series line is +500.

What you "feel" about it doesn't matter.

Not trying to be a jerk here, but it is what it is.