Question regarding strategy for betting the upcoming football season

[VegasDave]

Hopefully this will result in some actual decent discussion instead of a big "Fvck Vegas Dave" thread, but so it goes.

Year one of capping college football I went 44-47 ATS during the regular season. Last year I went 64-63-1 ATS. Obviously I'm hoping to take a step forward this year, but past returns suggest I'm going to be a coin-flip.

Picking every game in NFL football I have never finished a season under 50%, but only once have I finished one over 52.5%. With the exception of my PHILOSOPHY PICKS, my best bets don't seem to do a whole lot better than my ordinary leans. This is probably my biggest fault as a capper and one that Bob Harvey and I were talking about at the bash; I tend to do alright overall (better than 50%), but have trouble differentiating my best bets from my good leans.

My philosophy picks I'm 100% confident in. Picking over 60% career with these, my worst year was just 2 games over .500 which resulted in just about breaking even. Usually there are going to be 40-50 of these types of games a year.

Assuming a bankroll of 100 units, should I just bet something like 11 units a game on philo picks which if 60% holds up would result in roughly 64 to 80 units profit (24-16 to 30-20), or should I bet 1-3 units on non-philo games and just keep my fingers crossed for a winning season?

[onthewhat]

Sharps please hammer this kid and tell him he cant hit 60% on nfl sides

Thanks

[VegasDave]

Onthewhat being the first to respond -450 winner! Congrats to all you heavy chalk players.

[onthewhat]

Dave I am actually trying to help you out.

If you bet 11% on an NFL side you will go broke. That does not even need to be argued

[Willie Bee]

My strategy is to stay away from things I know nothing about. Wish I'd listened to myself at the track the other night

[VegasDave]

Dave I am actually trying to help you out.

If you bet 11% on an NFL side you will go broke. That does not even need to be argued

It's okay, all I need to hit is 52.5% at -110, and if you are a man of your word you'll be off the board .

[Fishhead]

Please tell me your using Matchbook....................

[fiveteamer]

Vegas Dave you have unrealistic expectations, be thankfull you can go 50%.

[VegasDave]

Please tell me your using Matchbook....................

We'll just say I'm playing with a local bookie so as not to disrupt SBR policy .

[fiveteamer]

Vegas Dave is playing with Tsoprano unreal boys.

Guy is out of control.

[VegasDave]

Vegas Dave is playing with Tsoprano unreal boys.

Guy is out of control.

I'm pretty sure that would DEFINITELY go against SBR policy

[Fishhead]

We'll just say I'm playing with a local bookie so as not to disrupt SBR policy .

If your not with Matchbook there is no reason to be wagering other than for entertainment value............

If one is seriously concerned with making money and they do not have a MB account, not sure how they sleep well at night knowing they are throwing THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS straight out the window by not being with Matchbook.

[fiveteamer]

If he could, Fishhead would spoon Matchbook.

[Fishhead]

If he could, Fishhead would spoon Matchbook.

Like ICEMAN has stated here, MB is the greatest thing that has happened for sportsbettors in a long, long, long time.

It's amazing that so few use them.

I don't believe many here value the importance of Matchbook.

[fiveteamer]

Fishhead most guys here bet for fun so they really do not give a shit about saving a penny or two in juice.

Fishy lots of guys also like to play parlays and props, Matchbook is mostly for pros, not regular joes who just like to bet for fun.

[Fishhead]

fishhead most guys here bet for fun so they really do not give a shit about saving a penny or two in juice.

Fishy lots of guys also like to play parlays and props, matchbook is mostly for pros, not regular joes who just like to bet for fun.

very true!!!!

[Justin7]

Vegas,

The strategy I would use:
Open up an account at Matchbook. Send a small amount you don't like losing this year ($500 max)

Flat bet all NFL on your philosophy picks. If you want the "pro" route, risk 1% ($5) on each pick. If you are just doing it for fun, risk 5% on each play. Track your plays meticulously. Make offers. Don't leave offers up overnight, or if you aren't watching the screen.

[onthewhat]

Justin, I'll duke you 2 dimes if you tell him it's wise to bet 20% per play.

[krk1030]

NFL is the hardest sport and the lines are so sharp.

95% of people hit between 48-52% of games.

[Iceman]

Best piece of advice I would give someone who wants to make money this cfb season is to be 100% fully prepared when the openers come out on Sunday night. If you can't beat Sunday night openers at Bookmaker, the Greek and Pinny (and you need to have money in all 3 places) on sides and even more important mid-week openers on CFB totals then you need to start over from there. Until you do things this way then do not judge yourself as a handicapper. You can be a good capper but a bad bettor and that will ruin you even more then the other way around.

Now if you miss these oportuniites at the openers there is still some good stuff out there early in the week and so you then need to be in many books as you can and mostly at square places like SIA, Bet Ed and a few others to get the extra point and of course also in at MB for the low juice. Just playing at places like this mid-week should bump you up a few VERY IMPORTANT pct points. Winning just an extra 3-5 plays a year will greatly effect your win pct in a sport like football, which has a lot less plays then most other sports.

Either way you should spend the week doing things both ways, IMO. Watiting till Thursday/Friday to try and play into sharp lines at -110 juice is almost impossibile to beat and greatly reduces ones chances to be successfull at this.

No reason to doubt yourself as a capper if this is your approach currently. In fact you would be hard pressed to find many others who could consistenly win playing late in the week at sharp books in the LONGTERM.

Doing those few extra things I think will make get you over the "50%/ coin flip hump" and into the profit range.

Instead of sitting around all day Sunday watching the NFL games closely, spend a lot of your day working on your CFB numbers so when the lines come out in the evening you can pick off the obvious mistakes.

The bottom line if you take this more serious then others you will , if you do not then you will most likely not have a winning year. You get out of this what you put into it.

Not trying to sound like a know it all as I am FAR FAR from it. This is just the most important thing that I have learned since doing this fulltime. The people who are working the hardest at this are also the ones who are doing the best at it.

[fiveteamer]

Icey good advice

[MartinBlank]

Dave,

I gave up on the NFL. It is just too unpredictable.

I have been playing for 20 years. I have kept serious records for the last 7, and I would like to think I am able to understand why I make my selections.

I have consistently won in college football. I play 5-7 games a week. I have won at a 59.2% clip the last 7 years, and last year was my worse year at 51.8%.

The NFL has been a nightmare. I limit my betting to the NFL playoffs and the Thanksgiving Day games (for the fun of it).

I just don't see how anyone can hit that marker in the NFL

[Fishhead]

ICE---Did you see my play at TheRX?

[The General]

Off the top



fade public in big games
bet dogs
bet unders
Don't lay more than a TD on favs
tease thru the 3's and 7's
tease 1-2 pt. dogs with low posted totals
bet 6 pt 2 team teasers laying 1.10

use reduced vig

(EDIT) In the long run, if you pick the winning team, you will cover the spread.



fading, betting dogs/unders; Specifically the prime time match ups. The games everyone feels the need to wager on.

[Fishhead]

off the top



fade public in big games
bet dogs
bet unders
don't lay more than a td on favs
tease thru the 3's and 7's
tease 1-2 pt. Dogs with low posted totals
bet 6 pt 2 team teasers laying 1.10

use reduced vig



fading, betting dogs/unders; specifically the prime time match ups. The games everyone feels the need to wager on.

sonofabitch man, you've come a long way since i first became aquinted with you .........wow!

[The General]

Thanks Fishhead. After a little time, some general rules stand out my friend.

Ps..How come you won't answer phone?

[Smogs]

What i've learnt from soccer is that we pick the games we like, look them over more closely, then get silly and bet those we don't want to also, because gambling is an addiction. Just to bet 3 games a weekend is very hard for the punter like most of us, and then when you have picked out your 3 games or whatever is your strategy, another one turns up and before you know it, 6 games are getting bet on and you lose your edge.

Just bet the philosophical picks - because you know they are profitable - and beat the urge to bet your leans also, because years of capping has already taught you that they will be 52% at best.

From reading your philosophical picks last year Dave, it also looks like they offer the best value

[Iceman]

ICE---Did you see my play at TheRX?

The Pads play? Yes if that is the one you are talking about.

I looked over the game closely and ended up just playing Nats TT over 3.5 -11o range.

I couldn't pull the trigger on the Pads here. But good call on the line move. If I know you then you have already made decent money before the game has started.

Good luck.