Do books tell you the answer:A theory guided discussion on reading between the lines

[BuddyBear]

Do sportsbooks tell you the answer? If you look carefully and hard enough, they do in my opinion.

Of course, this requires some time and hard work and understanding of line movement.


Let's take tonights game between UAB and Memphis as an example

Pinnacle has Memphis has -2.5 (-113) and -142 ML favorites and the O/U currently is at 54.5 (+100). It's the last number that intrigues me the most.

The line here tells you that Memphis is the better team and is expected to win. If you go into the props section next to the listed game you see an assortment of props. Here is an interesting prop:

Tue 11/1 Total pass completions by Memphis

Over 11.5 pass completions -125
Under 11.5 pass completions +109

Tue 11/1 Total pass attempts by Memphis

Over 19 pass attempts -112
Under 19 pass attempts -104


It's heavy juice to bet more than 11.5 completions (-125) and it's higher juice to bet over 19 pass attempts (-112).
11.5 of course seems like nothing and 19 pass attempts also seems very low. Implicit in this bet is that Memphis is a running team led by a star back in D'Angelo Hall. Here are the props on Hall tonight:

Tue 11/1 Total rush attempts by DeAngelo Williams

Over 30.5 rush attempts -122
Under 30.5 rush attempts +106

Tue 11/1 Total gross rushing yards by DeAngelo Williams

Over 172.5 gross rushing -106
Under 172.5 gross rushing -110

Again, the juice here seems to say he will be running the ball quite a bit and that he will run for a lot of yards.

So what does this mean? The books favor Memphis to win, and the style of game that they play is running the ball and not throwing.

A football fan will tell you that running the ball eats up time, throwing the ball doesn't especially on incompletes and out of bounds play.

The O/U opened up at 51 and is now at 54.5....heavy play on the over. But the book seems to favor Memphis and if Memphis is going to win the game then they are going to control the ball and the clock.

If you think UAB is going to win, then you should also favor the over.

However, I think the sportsbook is telling you the answer here. Go with the under 54.5.

[jay88]

Might be.. but is still pure stats... You can find them on covers if you want. The problem is that in sports anything can happen.

[BuddyBear]

yeah like the line shifting to 55 (+105) right after i bet 54.5 (+103)...hope it doesn't hit 55 now.

[bigboydan]

it's all stat related but, people seem to think they can find an edge. but, with such low limits it tells me its based on strictly stats.

[Ganchrow]

Assuming your rationale is correct, BuddyBear, another suggestion comes to mind:

Parlay Memphis and the under.

[JessicaCutie82]

Haha thats what my dad always used to say, that the there is no true way to beat the books and they wait for people who think they can! lol buddy might be right but i doubt it, all the lines makers try to do is attract equal betting on both sides, they dont try to give away hints lol, how do they know who will win and who will lose!

[BuddyBear]

Looks like it is not going as planned...3 and long conversions, 76 yd run, personal foul play to extend a drive which later resulted in a TD. This game blows.

Jessica...we all know you are JJ. I am really sure someone who has never gone on a gaming forum site knows how to put up an avitar, knows what a pm is, and wants to chat with other guys. Give me a break.

[Razz]

In theory, I think you are definitely right BB. Things just are not going your way so far. I didn't get under for the game, but I think I will at the half.

[BuddyBear]

I mean Memphis is running plays with over 20 seconds on the play clock....i mean just now...under 1:50 to go and they know UAB is going to get the ball back so what do they do---do they use up all the time---they kick an easy FG with 19 seconds left on the play clock with the game clock ticking. What are they doing?

[Max Levine]

You were not really wrong, BB.

If you think UAB is going to win, then you should also favor the over.

UAB being up by 10; 50 pts scored.

Max

[BuddyBear]

bad beat fellows....UAB running out the clock and the classless Watson Brown throws for the endzone on 4th and 7 with 2:00 left.

Anyway...let's look closer at the theory. The prediction that if UAB won it would go over came true. So I guess there is some merit in what I was talking about...it's just a matter of picking the winner. Memphis was just outmanned today, thought that Williams would be getting the ball much more but they used him it seemed sparingly and plus he had one big run for 76 yard td which didn't help at all.

Oh well...I'll see what I can do with this theory in the future.

[JessicaCutie82]

Haha you were wrong again, and no I am not JJ I am a girl, as hard as that does seem that a girl would actually talk to you Stop player hating Buddy get alife and stop personally attacking me. You are a loser and I am going to report you to the administrator

[JessicaCutie82]

And by the way I told you your theory was wrong , hahaha, like the books even know what the outcome of the game will be. All the books try to do is attract equal betting on each side. They dont control how those black athletes play!!

[BuddyBear]

And by the way I told you your theory was wrong , hahaha, like the books even know what the outcome of the game will be. All the books try to do is attract equal betting on each side. They dont control how those black athletes play!!

First of all JJ, all theories are falsifiable. Second, there are glitches in the the theory, but there are certain propositions that can be worked on and improved such that a winning strategy or system could possibly take shape. That's goal of this writing. Theory takes time to build and it's not going to happen overnight.

Yeah it sucks I lost, but unlike other gamblers I want to know why I lost, how I lost, and what I should do next time. If I had to do it all over again, I would make the same bet.

If you have anything positive to contribute JJ feel free to help out.

[pags11]

I definitely think the books like pinnacle and Cris have an idea on how they think a game will go...one of the reasons I like having accounts with them...like they both never put Texas A&M +17, which tells me they think A&M has a chance to cover in this one...

[JessicaCutie82]

OK buddy bear you are officially a loser. Sorry im not your crush JJ. The reasons you dont think im new is because i made a profile with an avatar?? It's not that hard to do , seeing as how theres a link that says EDIT PROFILe and EDIT AVATAR on the left of the screen. You are truley pathetic. Stop harrasing me I am already going to report you to the administration. And no, your loser theory doesn't work. It is stupid to even think such things. Or maybe we should call you the next John Nash. Haha im being extremely sarcastic.Anyways hun, you keep making excuses to yourself why you lost your bet, when in real life it has to do with the athletes playing, so its pure gambling. Ill say this one last time, the books make lines to attract equal betting on both sides. Get a life, and a girlfriend buddy!!!

[pags11]

I believe that buddybear already has a girlfriend, and from what he told me she's pretty hot...

[JessicaCutie82]

Have you ever even seen this girlfriend? How do you know this guy isn't a fraud trying to live a make believe life on the forum!

[jay88]

He is not totally wrong... He is working with statistics... Just that you have to consider that you'll never know the outcome of a game... you can play with percentages, stats, etc... But Costa Rica could beat Brasil in a soccer game if they get lucky... so what do you know...

[natrass]

Jessica ... from your photo ... can't help noticing you have quite a strong jawline, if you know what Im saying. Just wondering.

[JessicaCutie82]

obviously one of the avatars

[jumper]

great thread.i think there is merit to this theory,and i like to study line movement also.jessica,s hooters look like 6" of solid gold

[Shawn01]

How do you know this guy isn't a fraud trying to live a make believe life on the forum!

If this is JJ, or someone other than who she claims to be, that remark would be hypocritical, ironic and sad.