Question For Those Who Use Locals

[bigboydan]

Will your locals be offering prop bets for the superbowl? If so will they be offering all of them, or just a few?

The reason I ask this question is because, some of my locals are only offering a select few. (roughly 20-25 range)

[begolf25]

My local emailed out a list of about 225 props. Has them every year.

[bigboydan]

I wish my locals would do that. However, they won't do that due to the style line factor.

[Tchocky]

Too many props. A friend of mine wants to bet the Bears are going to shut out the Colts. Yes...he is an idiot.

[Sam Odom]

just a few

[EBone]

Dan, one has 10 props to choose from; my other 2 have only 5 apiece to choose from. Sounds like yours is doing pretty well compared to mine.



E

[jjgold]

Most people do not bet props so not wise to offer them

[Carlos019]

I need a local

If anyone has a reliable local in the miami area please PM me...

[Arilou]

I love props, and I don't see why you shouldn't offer them, at least upon request. If you have doubts about them, vig them to death.

Tchoky: Let me check my sims and whip up a line on that for you:

Alternate Team Total: Indianapolis Colts
10001 Over 0.5 -80000
10002 Under 0.5 +50000

Hey, you never know.

[Tchocky]

I love props, and I don't see why you shouldn't offer them, at least upon request. If you have doubts about them, vig them to death.

Tchoky: Let me check my sims and whip up a line on that for you:

Alternate Team Total: Indianapolis Colts
10001 Over 0.5 -80000
10002 Under 0.5 +50000

Hey, you never know.

Thanks "Arilou". Who's taking this prop? My friend wants to bet it...and what's the minimum?

[Ganchrow]

If you have doubts about them, vig them to death.

Tchoky: Let me check my sims and whip up a line on that for you:

Alternate Team Total: Indianapolis Colts
10001 Over 0.5 -80000
10002 Under 0.5 +50000

Before you start making book, I'd advise you to heed your own advice regarding vig.

The theoretical hold on the market you've quoted is about 0.0747% -- that's roughly the same vig implied by a -100.15 line set. Good luck with that.

[Arilou]

If you actually want to bet on this line (that line was just my aproximation of the odds), then put it up on Matchbook as an X-Bet or Super Bowl Prop. That's by far the best way and I don't begrudge them their cut.

But that bring up an interesting point I've been wondering about for a while. You say that the line I posted has the vig of a -100.15 line set. Yes... and no. In terms of the percentage of money bet that I keep, that is correct. However, in terms of my chance of getting good odds by attacking the line, it is far harder to beat 800:1 vs. 500:1 than it is to beat -100.15; I'd put it around -110 in terms of difficulty. And of course, if I was REALLY booking, it would look far more draconian, something like -100000/+20000, where I know I'm completely safe (and if they nail me on a 1000:1, hey, so be it). Of course, I'm the kind of guy who spreads markets very narrow when he's confident - I've been known to do 2 cent lines at Matchbook sometimes when I think things are stable. It's amazing what you can do with no overhead.

The trick is that, as I see it, you're not "fighting over" most of the real estate on a line like this. Take this line, for example:
Over 0.5 -1,000,000 (1M)
Under 0.5 +10000

Now I guarentee, absolutely guarentee, that no one in their right mind will want to go near this line. But it has a "vig" of less than -101. So how can I be so confident that I'd give Tchocky a dime knowing I'll never get the other side (and not knowing which side he wants)? Because it's very easy to know that something is between 100:1 and 10,000:1.

As an exercise for fun, some quick stats regarding shutouts in the NFL from a sample of several thousand games:
3.6% of games are shutouts.
2.1% of all games with above average OUs are shutouts.
Out of 1105 teams with a natural team total of more than 24, exactly 2 failed to score; those teams averaged a team total around 26.

Before I was using a sim, now I thought I'd run the numbers manually. 500:1 is a reasonable line; I'd start to feel safe around 200:1. On the other side, I don't have to feel that safe because of the odds I'm asking for.

[bigboydan]

Dan, one has 10 props to choose from; my other 2 have only 5 apiece to choose from. Sounds like yours is doing pretty well compared to mine.



E

If I didn't know better you were using watches and Pat

Locals hate to post these prop odds, because there always seems to be problems when it comes to the grading process. You could tell people your using whatever NFL.com stats, and some of there clients don't use computers. (hence the grading problems)... For the most part it's my understanding that they don't wanna be bothered with those types of hassles is why they don't give many out.

[Ganchrow]

If you already haven't done so, Arilou, I'd suggest reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's excellent treatise on philosophical finance, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life. One of the many points made by Taleb is that it is often exceedingly difficult for people to judge the likelihood of very rare events.

You just need to be careful. Although determining the difference between an 800:1 and a 300:1 event might seem a simple enough task, the fact that you'd expect to see less than three-quarters of a tenth of a penny for every dollar wagered should give you some pause when considering whether or not to book the hypothetical bet. If you happened to be wrong on the dog side of your estimate, the consequences could be very damaging indeed.

While the market:
Over 0.5 -1,000,000
Under 0.5 +10000

might first appear safe for a market maker, (it actually implies juice roughly equivalent to that of a -101.98 line set), it could represent some serious danger. The market midpoint is about 0.9805% for the dog. Let's just say that your estimate were off by 0.1195% and in fact the true dog probability were 1.10%. This would imply an expected loss of 11.1% for you for every dollar wagered on the dog. That's almost 11½ times as much as you'd expect to make on the market were it fairly priced. 11½ times. Are you really that sure you can tell the difference between a 1 out of 102 event and a 1 out of 91 event?

[knicknut]

I love props, and I don't see why you shouldn't offer them, at least upon request. If you have doubts about them, vig them to death.

Tchoky: Let me check my sims and whip up a line on that for you:

Alternate Team Total: Indianapolis Colts
10001 Over 0.5 -80000
10002 Under 0.5 +50000

Hey, you never know.

Put me for $10 on the under. I see value.