Alright golfers, Hit Berger today.

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  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #1
    Alright golfers, Hit Berger today.
    Daniel Berger -125 vs Cam Smith is great value .

    Berger was hitting some gross shots yesterday and no reason he can't continue.
  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #2
    He’s been good for a while now the only problem I have one day matchups are random
    Comment
    • RangeFinder
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-27-16
      • 8041

      #3
      Originally posted by jjgold
      He’s been good for a while now the only problem I have one day matchups are random
      Not really random, these matchups are based on their position in the tourney so you have to look at the player that is playing better and not getting lucky or shot well because of luck. In this case, Berger was sticking shots close and was crisp whereas Smith sunk some long putts that required luck to put him on top. Berger actually shot the best yesterday, Cantlay had a great back 9 but stayed off him because he faces Rahm, who can shoot lights out at any given moment.
      Comment
      • Art Vandelay
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-11-06
        • 6690

        #4
        Got it at -120, agree with your analysis - Best of luck to us!
        Comment
        • RangeFinder
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-27-16
          • 8041

          #5
          Originally posted by Art Vandelay
          Got it at -120, agree with your analysis - Best of luck to us!
          Great price!
          Comment
          • Bostongambler
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 02-01-08
            • 35581

            #6
            Glennnnnn , again with the value word. Please don’t go away again. 😂
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              anyone can have a bad round golf that is the issue
              Comment
              • RangeFinder
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-27-16
                • 8041

                #8
                Originally posted by Bostongambler
                Glennnnnn , again with the value word. Please don’t go away again. 
                Should I just use "Great number"?
                Comment
                • RangeFinder
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-27-16
                  • 8041

                  #9
                  Number moved to -135, still a decent play. Going in less than 30 min.
                  Comment
                  • Art Vandelay
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-11-06
                    • 6690

                    #10
                    Berger with the eagle on 15! All even with 3 to play...
                    Comment
                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388179

                      #11
                      Never easy
                      Comment
                      • RangeFinder
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 10-27-16
                        • 8041

                        #12


                        That Aussie putted as well as I've seen anybody. He hit perfect shots. He bogied the first two holes to boot. Scary.
                        Comment
                        • Bostongambler
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-01-08
                          • 35581

                          #13
                          But what happened to the value?
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            Ranger 4 day matchups much better

                            Give us one today
                            Comment
                            • RangeFinder
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 10-27-16
                              • 8041

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Bostongambler
                              But what happened to the value?
                              Value is not based on one event or even 10 events, it is based on long term EV.
                              Comment
                              • RangeFinder
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-27-16
                                • 8041

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                Ranger 4 day matchups much better

                                Give us one today
                                Well, there's only two days left so the 4 day is gone. Matsuyama is a good play to make a run to the top who sits at around 15-1 to win it tomorrow. He was playing really well finishing up yesterday and I think he continues to make is way up the leaderboard today to put himself in position tomorrow to make some noise.

                                Koepka might also make a run and hitting great irons to the green and just missing putts. If he gets the flat stick going, watch out.

                                Rahm is going to contend but don't like his number, I think he's too short of price.

                                Cantlay is a decent number at 5-1.

                                So I have plays on Matsuyama and Cantlay to make a run. However, if Smith keeps sinking prayer putts the way he has, there isn't anyone going to catch him.

                                Also keep in mind the course is drying out so it will not favor the long hitters as the ball rolls out, alot. It's bad because most of the fairways are slanted and roll outs will go to the rough or worse.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  A future is probably a better play like I said day-to-day matchups are the most random thing in any form of gambling garbage is too difficult and to inconsistent


                                  It’s one of the only sports high level amateur could be the professional for one day But of course four days the pro wins by 20 shots or more
                                  Comment
                                  • RangeFinder
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 10-27-16
                                    • 8041

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by jjgold
                                    A future is probably a better play like I said day-to-day matchups are the most random thing in any form of gambling garbage is too difficult and to inconsistent
                                    It’s one of the only sports high level amateur could be the professional for one day But of course four days the pro wins by 20 shots or more

                                    All depends on the numbers the books put out. Sometimes books miss although they have been better the last few years at keeping up. I think this tournament they went to sleep on a few guys because it is the beginning of the year and some din't play for a few months.
                                    Comment
                                    • KnuckleHeadz
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-11-19
                                      • 8194

                                      #19
                                      Glen the sharp on point as usual
                                      Comment
                                      • jjgold
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 07-20-05
                                        • 388179

                                        #20
                                        How is juice on matchups?

                                        20 cent lines up to 180?
                                        Comment
                                        • RangeFinder
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 10-27-16
                                          • 8041

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by jjgold
                                          How is juice on matchups?

                                          20 cent lines up to 180?
                                          Pretty much. 200 lines are 30+
                                          Comment
                                          • MOBIL19
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-31-20
                                            • 1014

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                            Well, there's only two days left so the 4 day is gone. Matsuyama is a good play to make a run to the top who sits at around 15-1 to win it tomorrow. He was playing really well finishing up yesterday and I think he continues to make is way up the leaderboard today to put himself in position tomorrow to make some noise.

                                            Koepka might also make a run and hitting great irons to the green and just missing putts. If he gets the flat stick going, watch out.

                                            Rahm is going to contend but don't like his number, I think he's too short of price.

                                            Cantlay is a decent number at 5-1.

                                            So I have plays on Matsuyama and Cantlay to make a run. However, if Smith keeps sinking prayer putts the way he has, there isn't anyone going to catch him.

                                            Also keep in mind the course is drying out so it will not favor the long hitters as the ball rolls out, alot. It's bad because most of the fairways are slanted and roll outs will go to the rough or worse.
                                            Rootin' for 'Deki rest of the way!
                                            Comment
                                            • BigJay
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-14-12
                                              • 3485

                                              #23
                                              The thing you do with Cam Smith is…

                                              Comment
                                              • RangeFinder
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-27-16
                                                • 8041

                                                #24
                                                Alright, so this tournament is down to two guys, which I see as a toss up.

                                                I played Cam Smith at +133 against Rahm for the 4th Round for the simple fact that the course does not favor long hitters like Rahm and will come down to the short game which I think Smith has a slight edge.

                                                One thing to think about for you live traders is grabbing Rahm at -1/2 against Smith 4th round and I think Rahm gets out to a lead, trade it back for profit. That probably will happen at one point to grab you some extra cash.
                                                Comment
                                                • Bostongambler
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-01-08
                                                  • 35581

                                                  #25
                                                  Glenn, don’t you think that all that info is factored into the +133 price?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jjgold
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 07-20-05
                                                    • 388179

                                                    #26
                                                    What a pathetic course it’s embarrassing that professionals are playing on this it’s a high school type layout
                                                    Comment
                                                    • RangeFinder
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 10-27-16
                                                      • 8041

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Bostongambler
                                                      Glenn, don’t you think that all that info is factored into the +133 price?
                                                      No. It played to long hitters when the course was soft the first few days. The course dried out late yesterday but books never adjusted. Smith has the lead back and Rahm is struggling with his drive early.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JacketFan81
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-28-17
                                                        • 1742

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by jjgold
                                                        What a pathetic course it’s embarrassing that professionals are playing on this it’s a high school type layout
                                                        Goldie are you shooting 5 under these days on Lancaster National or something?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Bostongambler
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 02-01-08
                                                          • 35581

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                                          No. It played to long hitters when the course was soft the first few days. The course dried out late yesterday but books never adjusted. Smith has the lead back and Rahm is struggling with his drive early.
                                                          Ok Glenn ok, I see you.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jjgold
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 07-20-05
                                                            • 388179

                                                            #30
                                                            I’m 105 type shooter

                                                            Originally posted by JacketFan81
                                                            Goldie are you shooting 5 under these days on Lancaster National or something?
                                                            Comment
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