Where are the Books getting these deadly odds? Are they now practically unbeatable?

[ABEHONEST]

Look at these scary odds and scores from yesterday.

1. Ky/Mo. total. 139/140. [83/56]
2. Louiv./Wake. Spread-4/4.5. Total. 142.5 [ 73/69]
3. Smu/Tulsa. Spread-5.5 Total. 143. [ 74/69 ] Matchbook
4. C.Mich/Kent St. Total. [140]. [ 72/69 ]
5. Ala/Tenn. spread. * W.Hill-5 to-7 at late close. Sports-Action-5, close? [ 73/68 ]

* Do state-Sportsbook casinos charge fees for deposits to your account?
** I suppose no charges at any Book, via crypto depositing?
I just needed an update.
Thank you

[texhooper]

No and no

[stevenash]

Advanced analytics.
They factor in every piece of data imaginable, like average possessions per game for instance.

You can beat the game in this simulated world we now live in, but you ain't beating shit without a good betting arbitrage algorithm and a working knowledge of analytics.

(It also helps to be on the right side of the fix too)

[ABEHONEST]

Advanced analytics.
They factor in every piece of data imaginable, like average possessions per game for instance.

You can beat the game in this simulated world we now live in, but you ain't beating shit without a good betting arbitrage algorithm and a working knowledge of analytics.

(It also helps to be on the right side of the fix too)

Nash, I see you've been around the gambling circuit for quite a while.

You certainly have a thorough understanding of our "new-world" of concrete Books.

I have eased off quite a bit these past 11 months, so tell me, why bet offshores when they are either charging for Deps., or making you use the "free" crypto?

What would be the catch if we drop offshores and strictly stayed with State-Books?

Thanks a lot, ol' vet.

[stevenash]

Nash, I see you've been around the gambling circuit for quite a while.

You certainly have a thorough understanding of our "new-world" of concrete Books.

I have eased off quite a bit these past 11 months, so tell me, why bet offshores when they are either charging for Deps., or making you use the "free" crypto?

What would be the catch if we drop offshores and strictly stayed with State-Books?

Thanks a lot, ol' vet.

Bet with solid reputable books that offer low vig.

If you're laying more than -105 on a side or total then you're laying to much.

That's my advise.

[pavyracer]

How about the games the books completely miss?

VT +4 lose by 44 points
Oregon +6 lose by 15
Iowa St +2 lose by 7

I guess their analytics are bad for these games.

[ABEHONEST]

Bet with solid reputable books that offer low vig.

If you're laying more than -105 on a side or total then you're laying to much.

That's my advise.

Low vig? I thought those days were over? You talking offshore Books, because we know local-state Books will not be posting -nichols?
You do not need to post any of your secret gambling stations? I am just curious.
And if any sports gambler finds himself not getting the best line, especially, with those wicked 1/2 points, you may lose a fortune, win a fortune, or save a fortune, in a one 10-year span?
Thanks again.

[ABEHONEST]

How about the games the books completely miss?

VT +4 lose by 44 points
Oregon +6 lose by 15
Iowa St +2 lose by 7

I guess their analytics are bad for these games.

No, they are the games you handicap and win with.

[pavyracer]

Post 4 games right now before games start that you know the scores will end up right on the books lines.

It's easy to find them after the games are played.

[stevenash]

How about the games the books completely miss?

VT +4 lose by 44 points
Oregon +6 lose by 15
Iowa St +2 lose by 7

I guess their analytics are bad for these games.

I don't need to repost this (but I will anyway) lol
If you've been reading my posts the past few weeks the books have been asleep at the wheel regarding props too.

Burrow over 256.6 was a gift, Edmonds (Cardinals) over 33.5 rush yards was even a bigger gift, it was as if the books didn't even know Connor was banged up.

Last six prop bets I made (all posted and verified) five clicked with ease.
I misplayed (like a dope) the Aaron Jones prop the other night, I only bet the over receiving yard portion of that bet, not the entire yards from scrimmage bet, if I did that would have clicked too.

I'm no guru, my shit stinks, I'm no second coming of Billy Walters, nothing like that.
I just take what I learned from the old timer bookies, arm myself with all the data given (I am a research data geek) and bet accordingly.

To Abe:
It's all in the homework you do.

[ABEHONEST]

Post 4 games right now before games start that you know the scores will end up right on the books lines.

It's easy to find them after the games are played.

Uh, Pav, I'm just making a point about today's Book joints and their too-tuff pointspreads [probably?].
If you're able to win in today's sports world, congrats.
What I am seeing, and you seem not to, is with the dep-charges--the lack of Nichol-lines [remember those days? ], and line-changing faster than Biden needs his draws changed, like every 30 minutes, I am probing for some positive answers, as to how to have fun again by winning like many gamblers of those lovely, "Days Of Yesteraday?"



Yesterday,
"Gambling was such an easy game to play
Now I need a place to hide away
Why my luck had to go
I don't know, the Book wouldn't say
I bet something wrong?
Now I long for yesterday"

Yesterday,
"Betting was such an easy game to play
Now I need a place to hide away
Oh, how I believe in yesterday"

Yesterday,
"Why Lady-Luck had to go
I don't know, she wouldn't say
I bet something wrong?
Now I long for yesterday"

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Razor sharp lines are nothing new, they're why the books exist.

[biggie12]

Abe sometimes I'm surprised you have made it gambling this long.

[ABEHONEST]

Abe sometimes I'm surprised you have made it gambling this long.

The past, man, the past.

[KVB]

Know when to tease ‘em and know when to please ‘em, Abe.

[jjgold]

Books just stay within market lines

Basically impossible now

[KVB]

Let's be careful not to judge the "sharpness" of the line after the fact, based on the final score.

The purpose of the line is not to predict the final score of the game nor does that become some kind of secondary thing as sharper forecasters hone the line.

It's just plain not how it works, as much as most would like to reason that it is.

[JacketFan81]

Let's be careful not to judge the "sharpness" of the line after the fact, based on the final score.

The purpose of the line is not to predict the final score of the game nor does that become some kind of secondary thing as sharper forecasters hone the line.

It's just plain not how it works, as much as most would like to reason that it is.

This is 100% the most intelligent post any of us will read today on this board.

I will say, however, that whichever method you use to predict lines.... If you're frequently radically off from those Vegas numbers, you're gonna catch a good ole fashioned ass whooping in your gambling life.

[stevenash]

This is 100% the most intelligent post any of us will read today on this board.

I will say, however, that whichever method you use to predict lines.... If you're frequently radically off from those Vegas numbers, you're gonna catch a good ole fashioned ass whooping in your gambling life.

KVB is the voice of reason.

There's sharp, and then there's KVB sharp.

[d2bets]

Look at these scary odds and scores from yesterday.

1. Ky/Mo. total. 139/140. [83/56]
2. Louiv./Wake. Spread-4/4.5. Total. 142.5 [ 73/69]
3. Smu/Tulsa. Spread-5.5 Total. 143. [ 74/69 ] Matchbook
4. C.Mich/Kent St. Total. [140]. [ 72/69 ]
5. Ala/Tenn. spread. * W.Hill-5 to-7 at late close. Sports-Action-5, close? [ 73/68 ]

* Do state-Sportsbook casinos charge fees for deposits to your account?
** I suppose no charges at any Book, via crypto depositing?
I just needed an update.
Thank you

Unbeatable? Results close to spread/total make it more beatable. That's awesome.

I claw and scrape to get the very best number on everything I bet and always make a point to yell "LINE VALUE" when I win because of it. I yell that damn near every day, usually multiple times. It's THE difference between winning and losing and anyone who doesn't realize it either isn't paying attention or doesn't bet any volume.

[jjgold]

Gamblers love to think they can win

It keeps them going

[ABEHONEST]

I'm a bit lazy right now with my usual handicaping--is there even such a thing anymore?
I like to consider the psychology of the team I'm following. Are they due to finally break out of a rut, when you know, or you believe, this team has the coach and a bunch of potential stars. I'm no longer thinking either right now.

Like Michigan did tonight. Well, I have misfired on Michigan several times already this season. What the heck is wrong with this team?
I keep thinking they are underrated, and well I did for 3 weeks, but not anymore.

Yep, I had a small wager on..guess who, and when the 2nd half was 3 minutes old, I said, "finally, they are playing like I thought they would 3 weeks ago." 2 minutes later...
This was a fast, stunning turnaround.

Okay, on to another day with a bet even smaller this time.

[ABEHONEST]

Cental Florida, had their starting 5 hit 12 of 20 threes. Most, came in the 2nd half.
A Bookies dream, are those threes.

They know now, they have possession of the key to a Pharaoh's Golden Tomb, and are gathering chest after chest full of gold, gleefully celebrating, knowing, no human can handicap those 3-shots.

[ABEHONEST]

Okay, I know I may seem a little odd to some of the members, but let me explain?
Getting another stunning loss on Michican, like it happened, it takes 48 hours for me to completely recover and get my mind back to a state of some decent clarity, and allow my brain to get back to my nomal intellect, mixed with what every gambler needs, some decent clairvoyance.
Without that, you will be a dead loser.

And losing that $27 bet, and the way it happened, is what started it, again.
So, I need another 8 hours.