Serious question - does anybody actually win at sports betting at a 55-60+% clip??

[DrunkHorseplayer]

56% is possible long term but the ones who can do it aren't going to advertise it. The best gamblers are unknown, the clowns (touts) who make all the noise are coin flippers. Don't believe the hype about Billy Walters; he won in an era when it was possible to have a huge information edge on the books, that era is long gone.

[EGrecu]

This isn't proof of anything but this goes to show you how rare it is for a person to hit 55% or more, even in a contest with several thousand people. The first link below is for Covers NCAA Basketball contest for last season. The person below ranked #1 for Over/Under out of 4402 people and he didn't even hit 55%.

https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/contestant/99036862-aa74-4e3a-945c-ac770085325c

Check this guy out. He's ranked #1 for MLB Over/Under this year and he's not even hitting 54%

https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/contestant/84ca3715-d036-45a0-b68b-ace000a35dde

Here's the #1 ranked guy Against The Spread in College Basketball for last year. He too hit less than 55%

https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/contestant/7d88dc42-9b3d-44a5-a75b-acc800b5efae

They're all pretty much like that on Cover's contests. And then if you go check on their past seasons you can see that people don't win from season to season. You might be thinking... well... if people were that good... why would they be wasting their time on Covers? That's a fair point. But hitting 55% is HARD. Anyone that thinks it's easy is either lying... or they haven't been doing it for very long, or they are FAR FAR smarter than I am.

are these people on covers.com betting every game or just a couple games every Sunday?


if they're betting every game, it's very very hard to hit even 51%

[jjgold]

The best way to invest your money long-term and the stock market it’s a proven winner

[Ghenghis Kahn]

It's definitely possible if you bet one game per week

But betting one game per week is virtually impossible

We love action too much

[manny24]

make 1 wager per year

fade SB winner ATS the following season opener

put half to the side for next year then bang whores 24/7 364

[mjsuax13]

are these people on covers.com betting every game or just a couple games every Sunday?


if they're betting every game, it's very very hard to hit even 51%

They don't bet every game. They sell picks on every game though.

[stevenash]

The best way to invest your money long-term and the stock market it’s a proven winner

The market is a bigger rig job than the NFL.

[pavyracer]

I'm talking about 60% when playing -110 plays


if you're avg play is -200, then you would have to be winning around 75%

Most of my plays are on soccer, tennis and UFC so it's very hard to find plays around -110 betting these sports.

[EGrecu]

Most of my plays are on soccer, tennis and UFC so it's very hard to find plays around -110 betting these sports.

and you make money year after year?

[asiagambler]

Best I ever saw long term was 54%

[stevenash]

Best I ever saw long term was 54%

Remember "Dr. Chalk" Benjamin Lee Eckstein.
He founded and developed "America's Line"
So good he was syndicated in 120 publications in US and Canada with a readership of over 10,000,000 (ten million)
He would bet a single game (rarely two) baseball games a day, about 140 games a season, and usually go like 88 and 52 something like that. He was long term close to 60 percent but Eck's profits weren't gigantic because he was laying -140 a game +
80 percent of his bets were chalk thus the moniker "Dr. Chalk" but he was the best I've ever seen or read.

[PharaohUB]

Pre game spreads on major markets are the sharpest lines you can bet. This is why those limits are the highest. Very hard to win long term betting these lines no matter how smart you are.

[Nappyx]

yes - there are people on covers that have hit 55%. There are 57 people that have a win percentage > 55% with a min of 250 plays. I tossed out any Moneyline sports NHL, MLB that would skew the results. Of those 39 have submitted a pick within the past month.

[BuckyOne]

Billy’s best skill was line manipulation! Nobody, ever really knew what side he was on. He made more money middling and scalping than he did picking sides.

Doubt he even kept a pick %?

[jjgold]

Sportsbetting is all math it’s not looking at statistics only the squares like us do that

[stevenash]

Billy’s best skill was line manipulation! Nobody, ever really knew what side he was on. He made more money middling and scalping than he did picking sides.

Doubt he even kept a pick %?

King of the scalp.
Made scalping an art form.

[kyhawk]

Overall

6,249-4,450 +$247,056

https://www.precisionpicks.com/colin-oconnor/

[jjgold]

There’s hundreds of thousands of people making pics of course some guys are going to have a good records the bottom line is 98% lose

[mjsuax13]

There’s hundreds of thousands of people making pics of course some guys are going to have a good records the bottom line is 98% lose

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[GunShard]

Touts from Vegas that don't show their betting record percentage like con man Dave are not winning above 55%. Just bet underdogs most of the time to fade the public.

[d2bets]

Who cares about hitting some magical "percentage of plays". It's about profit. I suppose you could judge on ROI (hold), but even then I'd rather have a higher volume and lower hold than a low volume and higher hold.

Talking about "picking 2-3 games each Sunday" is goofy. The more +EV bets the better. There are thousands of markets. Winning bettors just don't pick out a couple of winners ATS on Sundays. You need to bet as many different +EV things you can find at the highest limits possible.

If you have lots of outs and watch the market closely, you can bet many things every day with virtually no vig.

Understand that the difference between "hitting 50%" (dart thrower) and "hitting 55%" (pro) is 1 extra win in 20 events. That 1 extra win can come from getting the right number by betting at the right time and/or shopping for the best number. Any bettor knows that happens 1 in 20 times. Flipping that 1 in 20 from a loser to a winner is the difference between a winner and a loser of the long-run. Most losing bettors can't comprehend this and think too short-term.

[d2bets]

Billy’s best skill was line manipulation! Nobody, ever really knew what side he was on. He made more money middling and scalping than he did picking sides.

Doubt he even kept a pick %?

Exactly. Only touts are care about a "pick %". Winners just want to make $. The best money is guaranteed money.

[d2bets]

Pre game spreads on major markets are the sharpest lines you can bet. This is why those limits are the highest. Very hard to win long term betting these lines no matter how smart you are.

Only way is to get the best/off numbers.

[d2bets]

Remember "Dr. Chalk" Benjamin Lee Eckstein.
He founded and developed "America's Line"
So good he was syndicated in 120 publications in US and Canada with a readership of over 10,000,000 (ten million)
He would bet a single game (rarely two) baseball games a day, about 140 games a season, and usually go like 88 and 52 something like that. He was long term close to 60 percent but Eck's profits weren't gigantic because he was laying -140 a game +
80 percent of his bets were chalk thus the moniker "Dr. Chalk" but he was the best I've ever seen or read.

What did it actually translate to in terms of profit?

[d2bets]

It's definitely possible if you bet one game per week

But betting one game per week is virtually impossible

We love action too much

Anything is possible if you're talking about 52 plays. That's the short run. And you can't make money that way betting an appropriate amount. That is def not the best way. Best way is to get down as many +EV wagers as you possibly can. Then the variance can't bite you./

[Nappyx]

I think risk adjusted win percentage is better than profit. With measuring profit you can make 100 unit play and show a great ROI but it could simply be based on luck. To determine the likely hood of long term winning you need to evaluate the risk adjusted win percentage over lots of plays.

[d2bets]

I think risk adjusted win percentage is better than profit. With measuring profit you can make 100 unit play and show a great ROI but it could simply be based on luck. To determine the likely hood of long term winning you need to evaluate the risk adjusted win percentage over lots of plays.

Well that's the key. If it's a lot of plays, I'd rather look at profit/volume over time. Like, I always say, I'd rather "hit 54%" at 10x volume than "hit 58%" at 1x volume. Some people want to be more selective to hit a higher percentage and then pass on 54% plays because it reduces the win %. That's dumb. Bet every +EV play, whether it's slightly +EV or very +EV. Do it all.

[Oddly Specific]

Who cares about win percentage? I win 48.9% of my games but return a profit. Money Line dogs (had Cincinnati +250) and alternative lines afford profit at lower percentages.

[d2bets]

Who cares about win percentage? I win 48.9% of my games but return a profit. Money Line dogs (had Cincinnati +250) and alternative lines afford profit at lower percentages.

Oddly Specific indeed.

[jjgold]

The only strategy that ever worked for me is approximately five games a week

Well I think it’s worked for about a year on my spreadsheet but I don’t know if it worked long term and it’s boring

[stevenash]

What did it actually translate to in terms of profit?

I followed Eckstein pretty regularly, I'm not a chalk bettor but will on occasion bet two chalks on a two team money line parlay.

Eckstein's ROI annually would be around 12%
Most brokers would tell you what? Anything over 8% is good.

Stock market's not my forte though, I just have a few REIT's.
If you ask me the market is 'funnier' than betting sports.

[lonegambler23]

bigbear rising

[manny24]

There’s hundreds of thousands of people making pics of course some guys are going to have a good records the bottom line is 98% lose

closer to 99.4%

discipline required simply impossible for most

[floridagolfer]

The key to sportsbetting is the same as poker. Action junkies bet too many games and play too many hands in poker. Be selective . . .

This is SO true. We've all known people who bet 10 or 12 college games on Saturday and half the card on an NFL Sunday; that's ridiculous.

[JohnGalt2341]

yes - there are people on covers that have hit 55%. There are 57 people that have a win percentage > 55% with a min of 250 plays. I tossed out any Moneyline sports NHL, MLB that would skew the results. Of those 39 have submitted a pick within the past month.

I didn't do a lot of digging around but if you have a link or two that would be great. My general cut off that I usually go by/shoot for is a minimum of 400 plays. To me, anything under 400 plays just seems too small of a sample size. I've seen numbers change fast even in the 300's. Anyone that can hit over 55% ATS or O/U for more than 400 plays is pretty damn good. It's very hard to do and it's very rare, even on Covers where thousands of people are playing/guessing.