Is Bucs -6.5 one of the worst beats this year? I call a fix

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

This is hilarious. You agree that going for 2 was the correct decision to give the Eagles the best chance of winning. But you insist that the reason they went for 2 had nothing to do with trying to win the game and was only about covering 7 points.

The Eagles were never going to win this game. They had no intention of winning it. It was evident if you watched.
Brady over throws his TE by 20 yds. Eagles can't do shit on offense all game, so Bucs defense lays down to give them the go ahead TD and score a 2pt conversion. Game ends on 6. Lmao. Both teams knew what to do to make that happen. Math lol. It was right call if you had Eagles 6.5 or better.

Eagles couldn't do anything all night and suddenly the math is telling them what to do to win the game? Get out of here with that BS.

**TommieGunshot** · 10-15-21, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

The Eagles were never going to win this game. They had no intention of winning it. It was evident if you watched.
Brady over throws his TE by 20 yds. Eagles can't do shit on offense all game, so Bucs defense lays down to give them the go ahead TD and score a 2pt conversion. Game ends on 6. Lmao. Both teams knew what to do to make that happen. Math lol. It was right call if you had Eagles 6.5 or better.

Eagles couldn't do anything all night and suddenly the math is telling them what to do to win the game? Get out of here with that BS.

Why were you betting the Eagles +7 instead of the Bucs money line?

If all this stuff is so obvious, why are you on here complaining about it instead of earning money off it?

**kyhawk** · 10-15-21, 08:28 AM

Please stop betting. It is not for you.

Bad beats equal unconscious wins. It is a gambling law.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 08:32 AM

I don't bet favorite ml. I bet mostly dogs. Seldom I bet a favorite. I'm not complaining about winning my bet. I'm arguing that the math is a poor excuse to rationalize what happens in these games.

**USCPHILLYGUY** · 10-15-21, 08:33 AM

If you’ve watched any Philly games the past few years, Peterson always went for 2 down 8 late in the game. New coach no difference. I guess the theory is that if you missed the 2, you can score again and then try & tie.

im ok with the kneel down

Signed Philly +7.5 bettor

**Enkhbat** · 10-15-21, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by EmpireMaker

There is ZERO reason to go for 2 there. 100% fixed.

Apparently there is a reason to go for 2 there. Joe Buck explained it, it is analytics.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 10-15-21, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Apparently there is a reason to go for 2 there. Joe Buck explained it, it is analytics.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Apparently there is a reason to go for 2 there. Joe Buck explained it, it is analytics.

A shill for the NFL is explaining why it's the right call. The NFL has its bases covered.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 10-15-21, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

A shill for the NFL is explaining why it's the right call. The NFL has its bases covered.

I have seen a lot of teams do this last 2 years. get over the bad beat shit goes down.

**TommieGunshot** · 10-15-21, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

I don't bet favorite ml. I bet mostly dogs. Seldom I bet a favorite. I'm not complaining about winning my bet. I'm arguing that the math is a poor excuse to rationalize what happens in these games.

The only one rationalizing anything is you. The rest of us are simply saying that going for 2 was the correct decision. It is so weird that you turn around and use that as evidence of a fixed game.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

I have seen a lot of teams do this last 2 years. get over the bad beat shit goes down.

I didn't lose my bet. I had Eagles +7. Eagles had no business covering the game if you watched it. But they did because it was the right side and it was rigged for that to happen. I was on the right side of the fix.

Anyone using that math as an excuse late game is trying to BS people. Eagles are down 28-7. Why the penetrate they go for an XP to make it 28-14? If the math is right and they're trying to win they should go for 2 but they already knew they weren't winning the game.

Everything on TV is scripted but sports are untouchable. Lmao. It's unreal that grown men have watched this BS game for decades and still think it's a real sport. Doesn't matter how many bets win or lose because some official made a blundering game ending call to affect the game, they still believe it's real.

Using analytics to say its the right call is ignoring everything else that happens in the game. It's ignorance at best.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

The only one rationalizing anything is you. The rest of us are simply saying that going for 2 was the correct decision. It is so weird that you turn around and use that as evidence of a fixed game.

The game wasn't fixed because of that one call. It was fixed before anyone stepped on the field. Don't twist this around.

**TommieGunshot** · 10-15-21, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

I don't bet favorite ml. I bet mostly dogs. Seldom I bet a favorite. I'm not complaining about winning my bet. I'm arguing that the math is a poor excuse to rationalize what happens in these games.

Even when you insist the underdog has zero chance of winning, you still bet on them getting only 7. That is truly some next level rationalization.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 10-15-21, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

I didn't lose my bet. I had Eagles +7. Eagles had no business covering the game if you watched it. But they did because it was the right side and it was rigged for that to happen. I was on the right side of the fix.

Anyone using that math as an excuse late game is trying to BS people. Eagles are down 28-7. Why the penetrate they go for an XP to make it 28-14? If the math is right and they're trying to win they should go for 2 but they already knew they weren't winning the game.

Everything on TV is scripted but sports are untouchable. Lmao. It's unreal that grown men have watched this BS game for decades and still think it's a real sport. Doesn't matter how many bets win or lose because some official made a blundering game ending call to affect the game, they still believe it's real.

Using analytics to say its the right call is ignoring everything else that happens in the game. It's ignorance at best.

OK I do not buy the fix angle. Just MY opinion. we can agree to disagree here. gl this weekend.

**pavyracer** · 10-15-21, 09:30 AM

Going for 2 was the right decision. The thinking was that if they convert and then force a stop on Tampa's next possession they can go for the win on Eagles last possession. This is a Thursday night game and no one wanted to go to overtime with gassed players.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Even when you insist the underdog has zero chance of winning, you still bet on them getting only 7. That is truly some next level rationalization.

It won. You saw the game. I don't care how it happens. Betting Eagles ML would have been a stupid penetrating bet wouldn't you agree? I don't bet favorite Ml either because the juice is crazy and underdogs have been hitting lately. Good enough reason for you? I'm betting on rigged games. That's my belief. So far so good.

Good luck to you this weekend.

**Enkhbat** · 10-15-21, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by Saintsfan1977

The game wasn't fixed because of that one call. It was fixed before anyone stepped on the field. Don't twist this around.

Fixed before anyone stepped on the field? That is just conspiracy theory.

**Saintsfan1977** · 10-15-21, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Fixed before anyone stepped on the field? That is just conspiracy theory.

Your opinion.

**jjgold** · 10-15-21, 09:36 AM

Part of gambling

You cannot take National Football League favorites on the spread

**thomorino** · 10-15-21, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by vitterd

Guy is really an idiot. As if math and analytics looks at tb run defense. It’s all math and numbers. What is he talking about? The Eagles are throwing on the 2pt attempt anyway…. Not running. I swear he has some sort of imbalance.

Yeah…. I had a bunch of different numbers. Straight bets I had 6.5 and 7. I played a few parlays with under in baseball and bought it to 7.5. But it was bouncing around to 6.5 -7.5

You are a complete dumb shit. Analytics presume the average offense against the average defense. If you can't run it in, which Philadelphia almost certainly wasn't going to be able to do because of how good the Tampa Bay run defense is, your odds of converting throwing from the 2, especially with Hurts, are nowhere near 50%. It was the wrong decision because it was a decision that applied analytics without context.

**Smoke** · 10-15-21, 11:17 AM

Didn't anybody win with eagles?

**Booya711** · 10-15-21, 11:44 AM

the most I got from this thread was just more convincing that thomorino is definitely off the spectrum retarded.

**jessesinmaryland** · 10-15-21, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Why did Eagles go for 2, Ive never seen that in 20 years of watching football

When trailing by 14, going for 2 on the first TD increases odds of winning..

Obviously if you make it, you’re in position to lead when you score again. If you don’t get it the odds say you’ll convert more than 1/2 2 pt attempts and should convert the 2nd to tie it..

**jessesinmaryland** · 10-15-21, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by thomorino

You are a complete dumb shit. Analytics presume the average offense against the average defense. If you can't run it in, which Philadelphia almost certainly wasn't going to be able to do because of how good the Tampa Bay run defense is, your odds of converting throwing from the 2, especially with Hurts, are nowhere near 50%. It was the wrong decision because it was a decision that applied analytics without context.

This is a level of nuance most NFL teams aren’t equipped to deal with..

**Double Bogey** · 10-15-21, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by jessesinmaryland;[URL="tel:30591784"

30591784[/URL]]When trailing by 14, going for 2 on the first TD increases odds of winning..

Obviously if you make it, you’re in position to lead when you score again. If you don’t get it the odds say you’ll convert more than 1/2 2 pt attempts and should convert the 2nd to tie it..

That’s false though. If you don’t convert the 1st 2 pt attempt, the odds of making the 2nd don’t go up. Each try is an independent outcome

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 10-15-21, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Why did Eagles go for 2, Ive never seen that in 20 years of watching football

They've done it before in recent years. They know the spread.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-15-21, 12:53 PM

Clearly not inferior IMO if they are tied in OT......in your head they are inferior maybe....but they were @ home with momentum....

Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

basically... let's not have to score again JUST to get to OT and rely on having to win again in OT being the inferior team

**PaperTrail07** · 10-15-21, 12:54 PM

agree---they act like league wide its the correct decision in all situations.....NOT SO FAST!

Originally posted by jessesinmaryland

This is a level of nuance most NFL teams aren’t equipped to deal with..

**stake1** · 10-15-21, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by thomorino

You are a complete dumb shit. Analytics presume the average offense against the average defense. If you can't run it in, which Philadelphia almost certainly wasn't going to be able to do because of how good the Tampa Bay run defense is, your odds of converting throwing from the 2, especially with Hurts, are nowhere near 50%. It was the wrong decision because it was a decision that applied analytics without context.

Thom: you are a complete moron. Certified. Verified. Bona fide

**homie1975** · 10-15-21, 01:26 PM

from the magic Google machine on a simple search about PAT and distance:

"The NFL moved extra points back to the 15-yard line in 2015 to conceptually increase their difficulty level, and it worked in lowering the success rate on extra points by about four percentage points. That's the move that also swung the Expected Points Added on two-point conversions above the EPA on extra points"

**jtoler** · 10-15-21, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by thomorino

your odds of converting throwing from the 2, especially with Hurts, are nowhere near 50%.

62.5% and 62.3% the first is hurt’s completion percentage can u name who has the other

**homie1975** · 10-15-21, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by jtoler

62.5% and 62.3% the first is hurt’s completion percentage can u name who has the other

Toler tell us

**lakerboy** · 10-15-21, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Toler tell us

Allen.

Toler worries about things like that. I can't wait until I see hurts in the NFC championship game

**jtoler** · 10-15-21, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Allen.

Toler worries about things like that. I can't wait until I see hurts in the NFC championship game

wut ur really saying is that hurts is on a much worse team than allen

**Runeblade** · 10-15-21, 03:50 PM

The question is, how do the Philly backers feel? They are loving the "fixers" right now. Always gonna be winners and losers on both sides. Books win no matter what cmon now.....