Memphis -11

[texhooper]

It’s get-right time for Memphis. Blown leads of 21-0 against UTSA and 17-0 against Temple and dealt with turnovers screwing the Tulsa game up despite gaining 650 yards of offense. Navy is getting their ship righted as well, but I think we’re gonna have Memphis at their most focused all year tonight and they win going away.

I hate betting against Navy, but there’s a reason this spread is high. Tigers best player, senior receiver Calvin Austin, said publicly they need to get over their sense of entitlement and I just think we’re gonna see a focused team capable of covering the number.

Good luck guys. Let’s make it a Thursday to REMEMBER!!

[jjgold]

I never play the subpar teams very hard to predict good luck

[BeatTheJerk]

Sportsline computer model shows the score as
Memphis 35 Navy 17

Pick: Memphis -10.5
Memphis is covering in 61 percent of 10,000 simulations.

I’m with you Hooper !

[texhooper]

Interesting, I guess that’s pretty cool. I’d love for that to be the final

[BeatTheJerk]

Interesting, I guess that’s pretty cool. I’d love for that to be the final

Same here let’s see how this plays out. The model liked Louisiana on Tuesday night +4.5 & that was my easiest win of the season.

[Jerm3085]

Due for both favs to cover on a weekday night for once, GL

[texhooper]

Props guys MAY and I mean MAY as in MIGHT want to look at Calvin Austin over 102.5 receiving yards. World class speed and I doubt anyone in Navy’s secondary can keep up with him. We’re talking YAC baby dump it off and let Cal cook. Probably will be deep threats too, I just don’t think there’s much he can’t do tonight.

Do your own research before taking that, I’m just kinda pointing you in the direction there if one were so inclined to want to make a prop bet on this game

[Fred The Hammer]

I'm pounding Over 56! Memphis hasn't had a game under 59 all season and Navy has scored 29 ppg last 2 games. I agree Memphis will be super motivated and maybe even take Navy out of their 3 yards and a cloud of turf offense. I'd be a little afraid of laying 11 though. Navy only lost @ Houston by 8 and by 7 at home to SMU.

Sagarin rankings SMU #34, Houston #53, Memphis #89, and Navy #107

[Fred The Hammer]

Sportsline computer model shows the score as
Memphis 35 Navy 17

Pick: Memphis -10.5
Memphis is covering in 61 percent of 10,000 simulations.

I’m with you Hooper !

Isn't Sportsline another scam though? I get pop-ups from Sportsline so and so is 17-4 in his last 21 etc, etc and other assorted tried & true classic scam bs

[Fred The Hammer]

• Navy are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Memphis
• Navy are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American Athletic Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Navy's last 13 games played in October.

[BeatTheJerk]

Isn't Sportsline another scam though? I get pop-ups from Sportsline so and so is 17-4 in his last 21 etc, etc and other assorted tried & true classic scam bs

Which capper is claiming to be 17-4 ? I can verify this from his documented picks & tell you personally if this is true. I’m a member for life @ Sportsline I worked for them back in the day doing the live scoring when they had a branch in Ft. Lauderdale.

[BeatTheJerk]

Larry Hartstein is 21-5 last 26 in the NFL which is the hottest NFL capper currently.

Each & every pick I see was listed prior to the game.

[BeatTheJerk]

Those are ATS picks as well not heavy favorites.

[texhooper]

Fred! Thanks for stopping by.

Yeah it’s some heavy lumber to lay against Navy for sure. Not for the faint of heart. But that’s what it takes sometimes.

Good luck with your over. It should hit as all Memphis overs SHOULD hit, so while I don’t see you having too many problems there I’m just kinda banking in this one getting a little sideways on Navy somewhere around like the 3rd quarter, can see Memphis putting it on ice late and hopefully closing the backdoor.

Navy games are always tough but I think we can get these. Memphis has to get right at some point. They just have to!

[texhooper]

Which capper is claiming to be 17-4 ? I can verify this from his documented picks & tell you personally if this is true. I’m a member for life @ Sportsline I worked for them back in the day doing the live scoring when they had a branch in Ft. Lauderdale.

I’ve always wondered how that gig is. It seems like it would be cool, or maybe it could just turn watching a game into work! How’d you like it?

[BeatTheJerk]

I’ve always wondered how that gig is. It seems like it would be cool, or maybe it could just turn watching a game into work! How’d you like it?

When I was 22 years old it was the perfect gig. My co-worker was a bookie this was 15-17 years ago. You would get 50 bucks per game you watched/worked. It’s a two man rotation one spotter who watches the game & announces the stats as they happen live & the other person is on the computer putting them in simultaneously. On a Saturday & Sunday I could do from 6-8 games a weekend & make decent money at that time for me.

[texhooper]

That’s really not bad money at all. As long as you both got $50 each.

[BeatTheJerk]

That’s really not bad money at all. As long as you both got $50 each.

50 each but you were limited 10-12 games a week. It was a part time gig.

[BeatTheJerk]

They pay by the hour now since 2007. I’m sure it’s a lot less pay & full time work lol.

[Renegades]

I'm pounding Over 56! Memphis hasn't had a game under 59 all season and Navy has scored 29 ppg last 2 games. I agree Memphis will be super motivated and maybe even take Navy out of their 3 yards and a cloud of turf offense. I'd be a little afraid of laying 11 though. Navy only lost @ Houston by 8 and by 7 at home to SMU.

Sagarin rankings SMU #34, Houston #53, Memphis #89, and Navy #107

Navy hasnt been a great over team the last few yrs because they have zero threat passing. They used to have guys that could beat you deep when teams started to cheat loading up to stop the run. But now there is 0 threat of the qb completing a pass

[Kami40]

Kami40

Key words you don't like betting against Navy Good luck Brother I think Navy will cover & possible win straight out

[texhooper]

Kami you have to make your asshole pucker every now and then or you’re not doing this right. Good luck to you

[hotcross]

I've been trying to get mine unpuckered since last year

At least it keeps out stray debris

[Fred The Hammer]

Navy hasnt been a great over team the last few yrs because they have zero threat passing. They used to have guys that could beat you deep when teams started to cheat loading up to stop the run. But now there is 0 threat of the qb completing a pass

Now I have to look this shit up. They used to be golden with Overs but I don't play the Armed Forces academies that much. I definitely disagree with the dude that said he avoids 2 shitty teams. THAT IS EXACTLY what Vegas wants you do! Play the big games only where their lines are sharper. I usually kill these midweek games w/shitty teams for exactly that reason. The lines are softer

[Darkside Magick]

Navy +327 vs Memphis

[Tuesday]

Copied and pasted from across street:

He skips big MLB and NFL game to tout NAVY game.

-------------------------------

Let's Double Down Tonight

60 DIME
UP THE ANTE
MONEY MAKER
#22 OF 31

Navy - Memphis - 7:30 ET

Twice As Strong As Tuesday's 30 Dimer
UL Lafayette (+4') by 28 over Appalachian St

Since jtroller/lang bought NAVY, GOGOGO MEMPHIS

[texhooper]

Navy +327 vs Memphis

I actually agree that if you want to take Navy, moneyline is the way to go. Memphis will have to take control and get Navy off schedule to win. If Navy hangs around they’ll win

[texhooper]

Interesting I’m on some kind of weird fade side. I guess I’ll take that

[Darkside Magick]

I actually agree that if you want to take Navy, moneyline is the way to go. Memphis will have to take control and get Navy off schedule to win. If Navy hangs around they’ll win

Have Navy by 3 on my end.. Just taking the value

[Fred The Hammer]

Ok crushed some numbers real quick:

Navy 2016 = 68.9 points per game
Navy 2017 = 56.7 ppg
Navy 2018 = 58.5 ppg
Navy 2019 = 58.7 ppg
Navy 2020 = 46.9 ppg

So yeah last year was a down year for Navy, but when you consider Army-Navy is always in cold weather and they know the scheme inside/out so its almost always 21-13 or something at most! With that in mind 2016 non-Army games avg over 70 & 2017-2019 non-Army games avg over 60

and when you consider Memphis's nice passing game then Over 56 feels like a bargain to me!!

Yeah last 5 Army-Navy games averaged 29 ppg

[JacketFan81]

Ok crushed some numbers real quick:

Navy 2016 = 68.9 points per game
Navy 2017 = 56.7 ppg
Navy 2018 = 58.5 ppg
Navy 2019 = 58.7 ppg
Navy 2020 = 46.9 ppg

So yeah last year was a down year for Navy, but when you consider Army-Navy is always in cold weather and they know the scheme inside/out so its almost always 21-13 or something at most! With that in mind 2016 non-Army games avg over 70 & 2017-2019 non-Army games avg over 60

and when you consider Memphis's nice passing game then Over 56 feels like a bargain to me!!

Yeah last 5 Army-Navy games averaged 29 ppg

The Navy secondary is super weak, and they know it. When they have the ball, I would bank on them going on those 9 min death marches and running the clock. I would pass on the over, but that's just me.

[Fred The Hammer]

Have a 55.5 at Caesars. Got more at 53.5 (-130) 54 is a big number with totals

Good Luck Guys!!!

[Fred The Hammer]

The Navy secondary is super weak, and they know it. When they have the ball, I would bank on them going on those 9 min death marches and running the clock. I would pass on the over, but that's just me.

Well of course they try that every game, but sometimes the guy takes it to the house and sometimes they get way behind if their bs doesn't work. I'm probably cherry picking stats, but if you throw out last year then non-Army Navy games are averaging 62-65 ppg in the 4 previous seasons. Somehow the shit ends up higher scoring then you would think

[Headsterx]

First play and many more to come!

[Fred The Hammer]

Fred! Thanks for stopping by.

Yeah it’s some heavy lumber to lay against Navy for sure. Not for the faint of heart. But that’s what it takes sometimes.

Good luck with your over. It should hit as all Memphis overs SHOULD hit, so while I don’t see you having too many problems there I’m just kinda banking in this one getting a little sideways on Navy somewhere around like the 3rd quarter, can see Memphis putting it on ice late and hopefully closing the backdoor.

Navy games are always tough but I think we can get these. Memphis has to get right at some point. They just have to!

Thanks for letting me hijack it now and then. This might be a fun game!