The age old question!!

carolinakid · 10-13-21, 04:46 PM

do they have to show their vax card too??

KiDBaZkiT · 10-13-21, 04:49 PM

I take it one game at a time. Each play is its own unique scenario. Guys that place multiple wagers in the morning on plays that span over multiple time slots makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. That’s how most people do it though. Those guys def should be betting the same amount on each game.

texhooper · 10-13-21, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by KiDBaZkiT

I take it one game at a time. Each play is its own unique scenario. Guys that place multiple wagers in the morning on plays that span over multiple time slots makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. That’s how most people do it though. Those guys def should be betting the same amount on each game.

So you go one at a time (which actually is what I have been doing for awhile now, helps me weed out the bullshit) but you fluctuate your amounts based on how much you like each play? Or same amount every time?

jjgold · 10-13-21, 04:51 PM

Every game has 50% chance of winning as far as a pointspread that’s all you need to know

Runeblade · 10-13-21, 04:53 PM

Every play should be 1% of your bankroll. Try to stay below a 20% juice avg meaning you have to hit some dogs here and there. Hockey and baseball make that difficult. I like to bet 1 play per day but that's just me.

Tanko · 10-13-21, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Runeblade

Every play should be 1% of your bankroll. Try to stay below a 20% juice avg meaning you have to hit some dogs here and there. Hockey and baseball make that difficult. I like to bet 1 play per day but that's just me.

This!

My only exception is the 1 play per day. I will add a few more if I see EV+.

jjgold · 10-13-21, 04:58 PM

1% you can’t go broke

texhooper · 10-13-21, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by Runeblade

Every play should be 1% of your bankroll. Try to stay below a 20% juice avg meaning you have to hit some dogs here and there. Hockey and baseball make that difficult. I like to bet 1 play per day but that's just me.

But do you really really really do this? 1% on no more than one play a day?

texhooper · 10-13-21, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Tanko

This!

My only exception is the 1 play per day. I will add a few more if I see EV+.

And you absolutely stick to this every time? 1% per play?

BuckyOne · 10-13-21, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Every game has 50% chance of winning as far as a pointspread that’s all you need to know

That is not true. Scientific value is out there.

jjgold · 10-13-21, 05:09 PM

Bucky not for most players

It takes a lot of discipline 1 to 1 1/2% per bet

LongBall52 · 10-13-21, 05:11 PM

Good Q. First, I determine the side I like to win. Then I use one of 3 figures to bet it 1% 3% or 5% max bet. My formula to predict the winner must meet minimum 65% win or no play at all. There is some thinking involved after the stats are determined.

BuckyOne · 10-13-21, 05:16 PM

There is nothing known to mankind that will work without scientific value.

The only thing that matters is defining value.

Can you do it? Step one is keeping records - defining your edge. No edge and there is only hobby time.

Show me somebody that has records on his bet selection methods. Discipline and some large # data. Back test the wazoo out of it for optimum sizing.

Unless, you have proven your edges the sizing will not cure any negative expectancy.

TommieGunshot · 10-13-21, 05:22 PM

Lot of good value bets have low limits, so it would be silly to never bet more than that just to ensure some dumb idea of FlAt BeTtInG.

Find an edge, get money down, don't bet over Kelly. That's it. Nothing else. Sometimes the steps are easy, sometimes one or two of them can be a challenge.

jjgold · 10-13-21, 05:26 PM

If you do not have 5 diverse books you have 50% chance of winning each bet

texhooper · 10-13-21, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by BuckyOne

There is nothing known to mankind that will work without scientific value.

The only thing that matters is defining value.

Can you do it? Step one is keeping records - defining your edge. No edge and there is only hobby time.

Show me somebody that has records on his bet selection methods. Discipline and some large # data. Back test the wazoo out of it for optimum sizing.

Unless, you have proven your edges the sizing will not cure any negative expectancy.

Alright. I understand like half of this. Curious if you could share how you apply this to your betting. Is the value on the individual plays or is the value on yourself so to speak? As in you know you can hit a certain percentage long term so you stake a certain amount based on that?

This is the really scientific shit I was hoping someone would bring in here

Headsterx · 10-13-21, 05:42 PM

Simple...

FADE ALERT!!!

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

Definitely not the right place to be asking this, but I’m going to anyway. It’s a light night so let’s talk some shop. What is your METHOD for SUCCESS? FLAT BETTING every game the same, or hitting the BIG BETS?

We seem to be told flat betting is the way at every turn. “Oh if you just hit 50 some odd percent, WHOA-HO-HO, then you have a career on your hands!” However, it seems like every losing bettor and also every winning bettor does not abide by this!!?? So that’s sort of a 1a to this, does anyone actually flat bet??? True grinders on their leather asses getting that rent money. I want to meet these people. If I had any confidence in myself I would become one of you.

So I’d like to make this thread to get the money management secrets of all the VERIFIED PROFESSIONAL SPORTS BETTORS around here.

Find +EV bets and bet the max (or the max that keeps you under the radar). Money management is overrated. Make good bets.

texhooper · 10-13-21, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Find +EV bets and bet the max (or the max that keeps you under the radar). Money management is overrated. Make good bets.

I can get behind this

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by LongBall52

Good Q. First, I determine the side I like to win. Then I use one of 3 figures to bet it 1% 3% or 5% max bet. My formula to predict the winner must meet minimum 65% win or no play at all. There is some thinking involved after the stats are determined.

Absurd. If you are talking about a -110/-110 market or near-market line, there is no such thing as 65% and even if there was, it's stupid to limit yourself like that. Hitting 60% doesn't make you a hero. I'd rather hit 55% at 10x the volume.

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

I can get behind this

Honestly, "money management" is just an excuse used by losers who make bad bets.

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by BuckyOne

There is nothing known to mankind that will work without scientific value.

The only thing that matters is defining value.

Can you do it? Step one is keeping records - defining your edge. No edge and there is only hobby time.

Show me somebody that has records on his bet selection methods. Discipline and some large # data. Back test the wazoo out of it for optimum sizing.

Unless, you have proven your edges the sizing will not cure any negative expectancy.

Solid. Records like that are nice, but not necessarily required. With enough experience, you can know +EV when you see it.

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

If you do not have 5 diverse books you have 50% chance of winning each bet

What if you have two books and one hangs +-6-110 and the other hangs +-7-110. That's two books. It's impossible that all of those 4 possible bets have a 50% chance to win.

Snowball · 10-13-21, 05:53 PM

Cap the game before you see the line, then bet the side closer to your number.

d2bets · 10-13-21, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Cap the game before you see the line, then bet the side closer to your number.

That's great if one can "cap" the game better than those setting the line. But what's going to allow this? Better information? Better model?

Snowball · 10-13-21, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

That's great if one can "cap" the game better than those setting the line. But what's going to allow this? Better information? Better model?

Mostly all the "information" and "models" is not real handicapping. Handicapping is knowing the sport and relevant contingencies for that game, playing it out in your head and visualizing...getting to your number. If you're a good capper, you'll end up being near the line most of the time. When you're close to the line, you don't bet that game. It's those times when you are wider off it that can be special. You can identify a light favorite that should be a larger favorite, or a dog that should be the favorite.

Shutup · 10-13-21, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Runeblade

Every play should be 1% of your bankroll. Try to stay below a 20% juice avg meaning you have to hit some dogs here and there. Hockey and baseball make that difficult. I like to bet 1 play per day but that's just me.

No one is betting to make a few hundred dollars
Un;less your bankroll is a 100,000 who is betting 1%?
If you have a bankroll of 1000 you want to bet a shitty 10 a game
No thanks

KiDBaZkiT · 10-13-21, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

So you go one at a time (which actually is what I have been doing for awhile now, helps me weed out the bullshit) but you fluctuate your amounts based on how much you like each play? Or same amount every time?

My bet amounts definitely fluctuate but not necessarily based off how much I like a play. More on how the day is going. It would be impossible to explain as it is not an exact science. It’s all about feel. Rhythm to me is everything. You have to load up sometimes IMO or your wasting your time.

terpkeg · 10-13-21, 06:39 PM

Risk + Win = 4% of bankroll. I go up to 10% if I really think I have edge. Hard to stay the course though.

LongBall52 · 10-13-21, 06:41 PM

Friends a very low or modest income is better than hanging yourself out to lose..Been there done that. Not a professional, but play with the numbers that I can find for W-L. (WinPicks is good for football). I have my own little formula for baseball. I come to this website to be polite and learn..Not a pro. But have paid my dues... GL>

Runeblade · 10-13-21, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

But do you really really really do this? 1% on no more than one play a day?

Yes. BetOnline I have $10,000 I'll bet 100 on a play from time to time. I'm a roulette player so sports is secondary for me but I never deviate from the 1% ever.

terpkeg · 10-13-21, 06:43 PM

Risk + Win = 4% of bankroll. I go up to 10% if I really think I have edge. Hard to stay the course though.

Add I reset the bankroll size weekly

KVB · 10-13-21, 07:39 PM

Oh my the info in this thread.

I've often said that a flat risk amount is best, especially for posters trying to stay in the game and I've even argued against a fully Kelly betting strategy in the Think Tank. I've even shown the cost of varying your bet size, say with betting a flat percentage of an adjusted bankroll, and it can be high.

That said, if you're capable, partial Kelly is basically the way to go but if you're not really estimating an edge, mathematically, then it simply can't apply.

I excercise safety in numbers and make many smaller bets plying a much smaller edge, but the volume can add up, in some strategies. Other strategies have a much larger bet size, a different bankroll, and are some of the best bets I make.

It's all part of diversification that makes up a bigger picture of "income streams" from different market action, including LIVE, hedge, arb, middle, etc.

Track your bets and why you made them.

And for those who are really keeping track, keep an eye on your breakeven percentage as it changes when you change your bet amounts.

LongBall52 · 10-13-21, 08:19 PM

I think gambling (for those somewhat new and maybe for oltimers) is for thrillseekers. It was for me... Once you pass that stage you'll either find something else to do or use something non-destructive..