Urban Meyer

**beantown34** · 09-30-21, 11:38 PM

thats a pretty strong accusation

could very well be true some of these coaches really live in the fast lane

overall ill bet the farm he never has even a 9-7 season in the NFL. just because he will never wait around or develop players. he will just retire

**Neo50** · 09-30-21, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by beantown34

thats a pretty strong accusation

could very well be true some of these coaches really live in the fast lane

overall ill bet the farm he never has even a 9-7 season in the NFL. just because he will never wait around or develop players. he will just retire

Shut up beaner

**beantown34** · 09-30-21, 11:43 PM

Neo lol

go play in the online casino its fun

**Neo50** · 09-30-21, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by beantown34

Neo lol

go play in the online casino its fun

Shut up beaner. I don’t play degen rigged games. I bet on sports and sports only bc its so damn easy to win, as evidenced in my thread

**mtneer1212** · 09-30-21, 11:59 PM

The Jags have improved with each game so far. They actually looked good in the first half tonight. They will win 4-5 games, and generate some optimism for next year; which is a shame because their division is horrible this year.

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-21, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by mtneer1212

The Jags have improved with each game so far. They actually looked good in the first half tonight. They will win 4-5 games, and generate some optimism for next year; which is a shame because their division is horrible this year.

ignore the soul crushing 4th and fail before half ... 14-0 lead with all momentum lost instead of a 90% of a 17-0 lead.

end of game... Jags lose by 3 on last second field goal

"hey coach, why didn't you take those 3 points before half and push the lead to 3 scores when your team hasn't won and the franchise hasn't won since week 1 of the 2020 season?

"coach?"

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-01-21, 02:07 AM

Meyer looked like he was passing a gall stone on the sidelines. I don't think he can take much more of this. I see him bailing pretty soon. Meyer saw Trevor Lawrence and the Jax defense and thought to himself that he could win immediately. Wrong.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-01-21, 02:07 AM

He doesn't seem the type to last a 1-16 season.

**Itsamazing777** · 10-01-21, 11:28 AM

Should have kicked the field goal when on the 1 yard line at the end of the first half...
Even if you go for it why was Lawrence in the shotgun on a read option when they were running that all half? Line up under center....

**ARCHIVADO98** · 10-01-21, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

He doesn't seem the type to last a 1-16 season.

Will be fired after losing 44-47 to Titans and three more games just like it.

**ARCHIVADO98** · 10-01-21, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

Should have kicked the field goal when on the 1 yard line at the end of the first half...
Even if you go for it why was Lawrence in the shotgun on a read option when they were running that all half? Line up under center....

Of course, but what about the analytics?...

**stevenash** · 10-01-21, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by ARCHIVADO98

Of course, but what about the analytics?...

As an analytical analytics analyzer even I say don't leave points on the board, kick the FG go up three scores.
That's all the analytics you need in that particular spot.

Since I can't help myself I collected the red zone data since 2006.

The chances of making a FG from the 18 yard line (if the ball is snapped from the one) are 98 percent.

The chances of scoring a TD from the one yard line on fourth down are 88 percent.

Breaking that down further, if a team does go for a TD from the one yard line on fourth down the most efficient play is indeed the QB sneak, all passing plays in that same situation result in a TD *only* 68 percent of the time,

Being a geeky nerd head does have some advantages. lol

**Pigpen** · 10-01-21, 11:57 AM

The chances of making a FG from the 18 yard line (if the ball is snapped from the one) are 98 percent.

The chances of scoring a TD from the one yard line on fourth down are 88 percent.

4 points worth the 10%? Not arguing, just worth a debate imo.

**stevenash** · 10-01-21, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Pigpen

4 points worth the 10%? Not arguing, just worth a debate imo.

It is a open for a real good debate, but in this isolated situation (with the chance to go ahead by three scores with two of those scores being a TD) I would think there's no need to overthink there.

That was a great point you raised though, in a different situation (scoreboard wise) the ten percent might be less of a factor, or maybe even a non factor, not at 14-0 seconds to go before halftime though.

**ARCHIVADO98** · 10-01-21, 12:05 PM

Time on the clock matters a lot. It makes sense to go for it if there is enough time to take advantage of your field position EVEN IF you fail to punch it in. If there is not enough time, there is no advantage and you HAVE TO punch it in.

It changes the math.

**Pigpen** · 10-01-21, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

It is a open for a real good debate, but in this isolated situation (with the chance to go ahead by three scores with two of those scores being a TD) I would think there's no need to overthink there.

That was a great point you raised though, in a different situation (scoreboard wise) the ten percent might be less of a factor, or maybe even a non factor, not at 14-0 seconds to go before halftime though.

Very true, if the attempt to go for it fails at the end of the half you are not able to play field position game as ARCH also alludes to.

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-01-21, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

As an analytical analytics analyzer even I say don't leave points on the board, kick the FG go up three scores.
That's all the analytics you need in that particular spot.

Since I can't help myself I collected the red zone data since 2006.

The chances of making a FG from the 18 yard line (if the ball is snapped from the one) are 98 percent.

The chances of scoring a TD from the one yard line on fourth down are 88 percent.

Breaking that down further, if a team does go for a TD from the one yard line on fourth down the most efficient play is indeed the QB sneak, all passing plays in that same situation result in a TD *only* 68 percent of the time,

Being a geeky nerd head does have some advantages. lol

You might be a geeky nerd, but no way in hell is the 4th down conversion rate 88% from the 1 yard line in the NFL? You have to know better then that? I doubt its even 68%. Teams get stops more then 1 out of 10? C'mon? I'd say 65% at best.

Didn't watch the game, but agree with you on the FG. Thats not 2nd guessing either. Teams do get stopped regularly so take the points. My God....happens to the Colts 1-2 times every week almost. 0-3 and Reich has passed on atleast 4 fgs with zero to show for it already

**stevenash** · 10-01-21, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

You might be a geeky nerd, but no way in hell is the 4th down conversion rate 88% from the 1 yard line in the NFL? You have to know better then that? I doubt its even 68%. Teams get stops more then 1 out of 10? C'mon? I'd say 65% at best.

Didn't watch the game, but agree with you on the FG. Thats not 2nd guessing either. Teams do get stopped regularly so take the points. My God....happens to the Colts 1-2 times every week almost. 0-3 and Reich has passed on atleast 4 fgs with zero to show for it already

There's three sources of databases (that I know of) that I go to.
88 percent of sneaks from the one result in a TD, pass attempts are much less.
Mind you these are numbers I'm quoting from sources (like PFF) not numbers I'm creating out of thin air.

Yeah, I would think that number would be lower too.

Pro Football Reference has a play finder option where you can plug in a range of dates and other pertinent info.
I think I need a subscription to access that, let's see.
I don't pay for information though, I know how to access data I need without paying.

I'll get back on this.

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-21, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

You might be a geeky nerd, but no way in hell is the 4th down conversion rate 88% from the 1 yard line in the NFL? You have to know better then that? I doubt its even 68%. Teams get stops more then 1 out of 10? C'mon? I'd say 65% at best.

Didn't watch the game, but agree with you on the FG. Thats not 2nd guessing either. Teams do get stopped regularly so take the points. My God....happens to the Colts 1-2 times every week almost. 0-3 and Reich has passed on atleast 4 fgs with zero to show for it already

he kicked the FG on 4th and 2 to start the season out first possession of season/game vs Sea and took the 3 points on a 9+ minute drive... seattle said thank you and adjusted rest of game to stop the run

Reich just can't get it done with this roster this season... 0-4 tomorrow then Ravens pal, get ready mentally

**stevenash** · 10-01-21, 12:55 PM

OK, I confirmed the success rate for kicking a FG from 18 is 100 percent.
From 19 is 98 percent.

Field Goal Distance (yards)	Field Goals Made	Field Goals Attempted	Field Goal Percentage	Expected Value
17	1	1	100%	3
18	4	4	100%	3
19	12	13	98.30%	2.76
20	31	32	96.80%	2.9
21	32	34	94.10%	2.82
22	29	30	96.60%	2.89
23	44	46	95.60%	2.86
24	30	32	93.70%	2.81
25	41	44	93.10%	2.79
26	43	45	95.50%	2.86
27	32	37	86.40%	2.59
28	39	45	86.60%	2.59
29	41	43	95.30%	2.85
30	27	33	81.80%	2.45
31	35	44	79.50%	2.38
32	48	55	87.20%	2.61
33	37	48	77.00%	2.31
34	41	46	89.10%	2.67
35	40	45	88.80%	2.66
36	29	43	67.40%	2.02
37	28	38	73.60%	2.2
38	29	54	53.70%	1.61
39	32	42	76.10%	2.28
40	31	48	64.50%	1.93
41	26	42	61.90%	1.85
42	35	47	74.40%	2.23
43	19	40	47.50%	1.42
44	23	37	62.10%	1.86
45	15	29	51.70%	1.55
46	23	29	79.30%	2.37
47	19	38	50.00%	1.5
48	17	28	60.70%	1.82
49	21	37	56.70%	1.7
50	12	28	42.80%	1.28
51	2	9	22.20%	0.66
52	6	17	35.20%	1.05
53	9	20	45.00%	1.35
54	7	14	50.00%	1.5
55	4	6	66.60%	1.99
56	0	2	0.00%	0
57	1	2	50.00%	1.5
58	0	0	–	–
59	0	0	–	–
60	0	1	0.00%	0

Now these red zone numbers are for first downs inside the 20.
I'm going to post the third and fourth down data from the one is a few minutes.

**JacketFan81** · 10-01-21, 02:17 PM

Urban told one of his players that coaching in the NFL "is like playing Alabama every week." So wrong, on so many levels. Coaching in the NFL is miles above playing Alabama every week. When I heard that, I knew the guy's days were numbered.

**Stallion** · 10-01-21, 02:24 PM

Jacksonville 0-19 L19

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-01-21, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

You might be a geeky nerd, but no way in hell is the 4th down conversion rate 88% from the 1 yard line in the NFL? You have to know better then that? I doubt its even 68%. Teams get stops more then 1 out of 10? C'mon? I'd say 65% at best.

Didn't watch the game, but agree with you on the FG. Thats not 2nd guessing either. Teams do get stopped regularly so take the points. My God....happens to the Colts 1-2 times every week almost. 0-3 and Reich has passed on atleast 4 fgs with zero to show for it already

88 percent seems awfully high to me as well. I've watched enough football to know I've seen teams fukk up in that same spot. Is that data from the 1900's? There's a lot of factors that go into this. It's all about situational football. Are you able to move the ball effectively or are you being stopped trying to gain yards. How much time is on the clock. If you don't convert, do you have time to stop them and have them punt and you get great field position to kick again. Or maybe your defense is trash and you need 7's and not 3's? 3 points is a lot in a grind it out low scoring game. 3 points means nothing in a shootout.

To me it felt like the FG was the right play. You're just tacking on points. Why give the other team momentum by stopping you which is what happened. Then they went on a 24-7 run in the 2nd half. Bad call by Urban IMO.

**jjgold** · 10-01-21, 02:49 PM

They are improving

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-21, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

They are improving

covering some games in the NFL won't keep your job JJ

**jjgold** · 10-01-21, 04:41 PM

I think he’ll give it at least two years they don’t have the players

**DwightShrute** · 10-01-21, 04:49 PM

Jax played pretty good overall with a rookie QB. The 4th and goal just before half when they were up 14-0 was the turning point.

**pavyracer** · 10-01-21, 05:08 PM

Kicking the FG would have been a disaster. Yes they go up 17-14 but Cincinnati gets the ball back and they will either score a FG or a TD to end the half.

**DwightShrute** · 10-01-21, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Kicking the FG would have been a disaster. Yes they go up 17-14 but Cincinnati gets the ball back and they will either score a FG or a TD to end the half.

17-0

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-21, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Kicking the FG would have been a disaster. Yes they go up 17-14 but Cincinnati gets the ball back and they will either score a FG or a TD to end the half.

the hell kind of drugs is this guy on?

**Roger T. Bannon** · 10-01-21, 05:14 PM

He's got five years. He's got to draft and develop his own players. Who knows if he is any good at it. Probably.

The problem is you cannot cheat in the NFL. But Meyer is probably going to be above average in player evaluation is my guess.

**Roger T. Bannon** · 10-01-21, 05:18 PM

I don't think Meyer is bailing on the NFL. It is really the last thing for him to do as a coach and he wants the challenge and to prove himself. I don't think college does it for him anymore. He'd just be doing it for the money. He's rich enough, he can just retire.

**pavyracer** · 10-01-21, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by DwightShrute

17-0

Yes 17-0. So with 1 minute and a half left the score would end up being 17-3 or 17-7. So 14-0 wasn't bad but if they scored 21-0 would have been huge on the road.

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-21, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Yes 17-0. So with 1 minute and a half left the score would end up being 17-3 or 17-7. So 14-0 wasn't bad but if they scored 21-0 would have been huge on the road.

lol ASSUMING a score in the nfl for a team that hadn't scored and was sleep walking through the game... the 4th down stop turned the game around 100%