Does 7 Point Road Chalk Ever Cover in College Football? The Data Says Hell No!

[Eddy Munny]

Okay so this isn't pulled off of any data bank, these are games I recall off the top of my head, but they represent a pretty strong group of home dogs that were +7 and not a single instance of the road team covering yet this year. Feel free to chime in if I left one out.

Nebraska -7 @Illinois (won outright)

Notre Dame -7 @ Florida State

Texas -7 @ Arkansas (won outright)

Maryland -7 @ Illinois

UCF -7 @ Louisville (won outright)

San Jose State -7 @ Hawaii

Utah -7 @ BYU (won outright)

Iowa State -7 @ Baylor (won outright)



FWIW we have the USC Trojans laying 7 @ Colorado right now for this upcoming weekend's card.

Any takers on the Buffaloes?

[Eddy Munny]

Stanford and Kentucky are two more home dogs hovering around that price point.

[jtoler]

kinda like -5.5 in cbball seems to crash and burn quite a bit

[d2bets]

Okay so this isn't pulled off of any data bank, these are games I recall off the top of my head, but they represent a pretty strong group of home dogs that were +7 and not a single instance of the road team covering yet this year. Feel free to chime in if I left one out.

Nebraska -7 @Illinois (won outright)

Notre Dame -7 @ Florida State

Texas -7 @ Arkansas (won outright)

Maryland -7 @ Illinois

UCF -7 @ Louisville (won outright)

San Jose State -7 @ Hawaii

Utah -7 @ BYU (won outright)

Iowa State -7 @ Baylor (won outright)



FWIW we have the USC Trojans laying 7 @ Colorado right now for this upcoming weekend's card.

Any takers on the Buffaloes?

I'd like to see the data. Although we'd have to predetermine exactly what book closing line we are using for reference. Should be a pretty good sample size going back several years.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good list Eddy. Prefer to take the + number in most instances especially in NFL. Looks like it's a solid move this year as well in college with teams getting about 7 points at home. thx.

[johnnyvegas13]

What is ur point here eddy???

and how confident r u on whisky sat ?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Okay so this isn't pulled off of any data bank, these are games I recall off the top of my head, but they represent a pretty strong group of home dogs that were +7 and not a single instance of the road team covering yet this year. Feel free to chime in if I left one out.

Nebraska -7 @Illinois (won outright)

Notre Dame -7 @ Florida State

Texas -7 @ Arkansas (won outright)

Maryland -7 @ Illinois

UCF -7 @ Louisville (won outright)

San Jose State -7 @ Hawaii

Utah -7 @ BYU (won outright)

Iowa State -7 @ Baylor (won outright)



FWIW we have the USC Trojans laying 7 @ Colorado right now for this upcoming weekend's card.

Any takers on the Buffaloes?

Eddy, what do u make of the current USC coaching situation?

I'm truly amazed that USC has been DOWN for this long.

[KiDBaZkiT]

I’ve said it for years, handicap the game not the spread.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Eddy, what do u make of the current USC coaching situation?

I'm truly amazed that USC has been DOWN for this long.

I would be interested to hear Eddy’s take as well. IMO they should of hired Urban Meyer while he was working for fox. You had Reggie Bush and Matt Leinhart right there to nudge him along.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I’ve said it for years, handicap the game not the spread.

I see your point Kid. but it all comes down to the spread in the end if playing ATS.

[johnnyvegas13]

I’ve said it for years, handicap the game not the spread.

That is basically how I play college football since I don’t know most these teams to begin w

nfl I play a lot different since I know every team well mostly

[Eddy Munny]

I didn't include San Diego State the week they played Utah because the line was up and down a bit but they definitely were, at times, right in that +7 to +7.5 sweet spot and of course ended up winning the game outright.

So if I throw in the Aztecs then the trend is 9-0 to the dogs in 2021.

[Eddy Munny]

What is ur point here eddy???

It's information, Johnny. That's it. I know information sometimes gets turned away at the checkpoint before it has a chance to enter your brain, but maybe this bit will sneak by. In the event that it does, you're free to do with it whatever you want. It's your crossword puzzle.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Underdogs seem to be crushing everything in CFB this year, regardless of the spread.

[Eddy Munny]

Eddy, what do u make of the current USC coaching situation?

I'm truly amazed that USC has been DOWN for this long.

I don't really know, I haven't followed the situation that closely, but I think cutting Helton loose was overdue. USC is clearly slipping, it's like the kids can't even focus for the three hours it takes to complete a game, so practice during the week must feel like kindergarten roundup over there.

[BeatTheJerk]

It's information, Johnny. That's it. I know information sometimes gets turned away at the checkpoint before it has a chance to enter your brain, but maybe this bit will sneak by. In the event that it does, you're free to do with it whatever you want. It's your crossword puzzle.

what a response

[Eddy Munny]

Two more home dogs win outright with Stanford and Kentucky (both +7.5) and USC finally scores a win for the road chalk in this price range by crushing Colorado.

Underdogs now 11-1 ATS on the year with with 8 of those 11 covers being outright wins.

[Eddy Munny]

Will track UNLV, UTEP, Texas State, and Kansas State as dogs that fit the criteria.

[Booya711]

I’ve said it for years, handicap the game not the spread.

I guess for years you haven’t had a clue then….spread more important than the game…ask any professional

[jjgold]

trends all you need to know

[asiagambler]

It's information, Johnny. That's it. I know information sometimes gets turned away at the checkpoint before it has a chance to enter your brain, but maybe this bit will sneak by. In the event that it does, you're free to do with it whatever you want. It's your crossword puzzle.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Two more home dogs win outright with Stanford and Kentucky (both +7.5) and USC finally scores a win for the road chalk in this price range by crushing Colorado.

Underdogs now 11-1 ATS on the year with with 8 of those 11 covers being outright wins.

I refuse to believe that only 12 games this year have ended with the road team being -7; I think you're missing some data but good luck.

[Eddy Munny]

I refuse to believe that only 12 games this year have ended with the road team being -7; I think you're missing some data but good luck.

Missing in what sense?

It's not an exact science, no number is gonna be static from open to close, but these are games that have more or less settled into that range and have been available at the price for a good portion of the week. Four more games this week fit the bill, there were none last week. I don't have a dog in the fight, I'm just tracking and sharing. At this point the trend is impossible to ignore.

[Cougar Bait]

You need a way bigger sample size to actually use this info with any sort of confidence, or with other filters. And, hopefully, you're not just using this as your basis for a play. Good luck with the data gathering...if you like this kind of thing you might be interested in Sports Insights or other cumulative programs that pull this data for you. It costs money but you'll get a lot more data and you can combine filters to fit a specific trend. In fact you can combine trends to make your own formula. I knew a couple guys that did very well using it in the past.

[rm18]

Iowa St. though

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Missing in what sense?

It's not an exact science, no number is gonna be static from open to close, but these are games that have more or less settled into that range and have been available at the price for a good portion of the week. Four more games this week fit the bill, there were none last week. I don't have a dog in the fight, I'm just tracking and sharing. At this point the trend is impossible to ignore.

I think that there have been more than 12 games which fit your criteria and therefore the 11-1 record represents only part of the sample size.

[jjgold]

lets see how this plays out

[Eddy Munny]

I think that there have been more than 12 games which fit your criteria and therefore the 11-1 record represents only part of the sample size.

Just a hunch huh?

I don't think I've left any behind. Seven point home dogs is fairly specific and there's been an average of about two a week which seems a reasonable expectation. If anything, a stickler could argue I've included too many.

[gauchojake]

Did Johnny's brain checkpoint open up yet?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Just a hunch huh?

I don't think I've left any behind. Seven point home dogs is fairly specific and there's been an average of about two a week which seems a reasonable expectation. If anything, a stickler could argue I've included too many.

Not a hunch but two games per week, despite the specific criteria, seems low given how many games there are. If you've looked at every line though, I'll take your word for it; do tread lightly due to the small sample size.

[Eddy Munny]

Update:

UNLV, Texas State, and UTEP all cover with Miners winning outright. Kansas State however does not get the cover.

This brings the home dogs record ATS to 14-2 with NINE outright wins.

[Art Vandelay]

Update:

UNLV, Texas State, and UTEP all cover with Miners winning outright. Kansas State however does not get the cover.

This brings the home dogs record ATS to 14-2 with NINE outright wins.

K St tried! Got to the Cyclone 12 when time ran out...

[rm18]

K St tried! Got to the Cyclone 12 when time ran out...

they would not of been able to kick the XP though

[Eddy Munny]

Even if you had passed up on the points and just took every one of these dogs on the ML you'd be 9-7 and that would be highly profitable considering you'd be +230 or so for the nine wins.

[Eddy Munny]

Update: West Virginia beat ISU outright as a seven point home dog, but Northwestern failed to cover against Minnesota.

Home dogs current record now 15-3 ATS with TEN outright wins.

Qualifiers this weekend look to be TCU, Washington, and Hawaii.