why the Oakland raiders are only 3.5 point favor ??

[yahoonino]

raider minus 3.5 look to easy why this line is so low ??? is this a trap ?? miami qb is out.did i miss something here ???

[SamsNCharge99]

i agree, which is why i stayed away

tons of trap lines this week it looks like

[stevenash]

i agree, which is why i stayed away

tons of trap lines this week it looks like

I don't mean to sound like a dick (or is it too late for that ) there's no such thing as a trap in my opinion.

[Smoke]

I don't mean to sound like a dick (or is it too late for that ) there's no such thing as a trap in my opinion.

please elaborate

[LT Profits]

I could think of 2 reasons

1-Raiders are not THAT good, they are one of the weaker 2-0 teams
2-Although Carr will play, it will be on a gimpy ankle so it remains to be seen if his passing will be affected (due to pain planting foot)

[SamsNCharge99]

I don't mean to sound like a dick (or is it too late for that ) there's no such thing as a trap in my opinion.

look too good to be true lines then

I'm just looking at...

TBAY -1 AT Rams
Seattle -1 AT Vikings
GBAY +3.5 AT SF

Public will be all over 3 road teams where I feel like just blindly betting all 3 home teams, you would go 2-1

This Vegas/Miami game I agree in same boat. I have Vegas as -6 at least, but -3.5 seems like easy.

[stevenash]

please elaborate

For starters if one identifies a game as a 'trap' then it's not a trap. (or am I not making sense here)

[stevenash]

look too good to be true lines then

Don't let a line or total mind funk you.
If you like the side, bet the side.
If you like the total, then bet the total.
Forget all that 'it doesn't smell right" stuff.

I'll often say "the line looks suspicious", but bet it anyway because I like the bet.
And usually, not always, but usually I'm glad I did.

[gauchojake]

Free money!!

[lakerboy]

The Raiders are not good. They started fast last year as well. Also Mia was very good on the road last season.

[gauchojake]

Josh Jacobs not 100% as well.

[SamsNCharge99]

Don't let a line or total mind funk you.
If you like the side, bet the side.
If you like the total, then bet the total.
Forget all that 'it doesn't smell right" stuff.

I'll often say "the line looks suspicious", but bet it anyway because I like the bet.
And usually, not always, but usually I'm glad I did.

i'm the opposite, I just don't bet the game and maybe wait for a LIVE in play bet

[stevenash]

Free money!!

Is there such a thing as 'free money'?
Or does the book just let you hold onto their money for a little while when you win only to give it back eventually?

[stevenash]

i'm the opposite, I just don't bet the game and maybe wait for a LIVE in play bet

It's all good.
Hey, I'm not the second coming of Jimmy the Greek Snyder, I win, I lose, I lose, I win.
I'm not all that, I'm just very opinionated.

[gauchojake]

Is there such a thing as 'free money'?
Or does the book just let you hold onto their money for a little while when you win only to give it back eventually?

Nasher I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 85% of the time if someone says it's free money, you lose.

[magpie878]

Tua out makes Miami better, sadly. Plus Carr injury concerns, as stated above. The line is what it is for a reason.. if it looks great to you, take it.

[TheLock]

Dolphins +4 is the only play if you’re getting down on this game.

[stevenash]

Nasher I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 85% of the time if someone says it's free money, you lose.

I wish I had a dime for every time I heard 'free money'

Know what's worse?
"There's no juice if you win"

That's se cringe worthy it breaks the needle of the cringe-o-meter.

[kimwash78]

raider minus 3.5 look to easy why this line is so low ??? is this a trap ?? miami qb is out.did i miss something here ???

Miami always plays them tough
We get back will fuller
And sure Brissett is not a starter in this league
Dolphins inept receivers dropped many passes last week could of been touchdowns

[Easy-Rider 66]

Most likely playing the Fish + 4. see a close game here. points could come into into play

[stevenash]

Most likely playing the Fish + 4. see a close game here. points could come into into play

Under?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I could think of 2 reasons

1-Raiders are not THAT good, they are one of the weaker 2-0 teams
2-Although Carr will play, it will be on a gimpy ankle so it remains to be seen if his passing will be affected (due to pain planting foot)

AND god-awful Peterman in waiting. Tells me that Carr would have to be debilitated for Gruden to pull him. If Mariota was the healthy backup, would feel much better about a Raider bet.

[pavyracer]

The Raiders defense is pretty good. They will shut down Miami. People focusing on offense but is the defense that wins games.

Do you think the Panthers offense won the game last night or the defense? Think before you answer.

[marcoloco]

Raiders win by 10+

[ThaTopMoron]

the play would be in the first half

jacoby looks bad after half time vs competent opposing defensive coordinators with decent defenses

at least for the colts that is

true both in 2017 and 2019

[kimwash78]

The Raiders defense is pretty good. They will shut down Miami. People focusing on offense but is the defense that wins games.

Do you think the Panthers offense won the game last night or the defense? Think before you answer.

Raiders defense is good? Miami’s is better
And their defensive line nothing special so far. Vegas barely won if Lamar didn’t fumble 2x and beat a mediocre pitt offense. I love how everyone is saying vegas js so good Bc they are 2-0.

[209 Life]

Raiders defense is good? Miami’s is better
And their defensive line nothing special so far. Vegas barely won if Lamar didn’t fumble 2x and beat a mediocre pitt offense. I love how everyone is saying vegas js so good Bc they are 2-0.

Salty Baltimore week 1 bettor

[LT Profits]

I love how everyone is saying vegas js so good Bc they are 2-0.

Not everyone

(Post 5)

[kimwash78]

Salty Baltimore week 1 bettor

I had Vegas ml that game. Lamar will choke in playoffs like he does every yr. I don’t understand how me saying Vegas is overrated overall has anything w Baltimore? A lot of overrated teams out there hence Arizona and other teams.

[209 Life]

I had Vegas ml that game. Lamar will choke in playoffs like he does every yr. I don’t understand how me saying Vegas is overrated overall has anything w Baltimore? A lot of overrated teams out there hence Arizona and other teams.

Go bet Miami. I'll be on the winning side (Raiders)

[kimwash78]

Go bet Miami. I'll be on the winning side (Raiders)

This game can go either way so no I won’t bet it.
I won’t bet against my dolphins but they can easily win. Don’t forget Vegas traveling back and forth takes tolls on teams. Rather get Buffalo and Dallas
Better games to win money on

[209 Life]

This game can go either way so no I won’t bet it.
I won’t bet against my dolphins but they can easily win. Don’t forget Vegas traveling back and forth takes tolls on teams. Rather get Buffalo and Dallas
Better games to win money on

Dolphins suck, Tua & Jacoby driving the clown car. Raiders steamroll at home

[kimwash78]

Dolphins suck, Tua & Jacoby driving the clown car. Raiders steamroll at home

I blame Grier
Needs to go
But Miami has talent
And the Raiders I watched week one not last week
But aren’t as good as everybody thinks. Nfl teams are a lot closer talent wise than most years

[209 Life]

I blame Grier
Needs to go
But Miami has talent
And the Raiders I watched week one not last week
But aren’t as good as everybody thinks. Nfl teams are a lot closer talent wise than most years

3-0 book it. Raiders win

[KVB]

raider minus 3.5 look to easy why this line is so low ??? is this a trap ?? miami qb is out.did i miss something here ???

A pretty good block of different methodologies will have the Raiders winning this game by more than one TD and less than 2 TDs..

At 3.5, and 4 many Raider numbers can be captured here with that lower line, making it feel like a trap.

But the books are also contending with a vast majority of public opinion and score "guesses" that put the Raiders in a much closer game with about a 4 point win.

My stacking percentages forecast shows Las Vegas winning 28-17 while the non predictive public gauge has LV winning 27-23. I can make many more "sharper" forecasts the also capture quite a few numbers out there for the Raiders at -3.5.

I have Miami as a contrarian lean here as the books are happily taking those Raiders bets as of now and if they continue to keep the line depressed we could overcome the forecast Raider lead with adjustments.

Las Vegas +4.5 cuts off some of those favorite bettors triggering from their forecasts, it slows that action significantly and even if the Vegas pressure puts the line on 4.5 there will be dog buying at that level, both from unsophisticated bettors and market bettors looking to side with the books (for example...The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund and less disciplined but similar strategies.)

At these levels there is every indication that the books are taking a position in the Raiders this week, for now, and Miami is on the Contrarian Fund radar.