Wisky is Gonna Pound Notre Dame

[Eddy Munny]

The Irish have been walking a tight rope three games into the season with a narrow win over Florida State (who's proven to be a dumpster fire) another narrow win over Toledo (a good team granted, but still MAC caliber, and that loss to CSU is a bad look) and a win over a middling B1G team in Purdue that was able to hang around the whole game despite Notre Dame creating some distance at the end.

Now Notre Dame did find ways to win every game and that's a credit to Brian Kelly and his players, but at the same time, they are not same team in the trenches they've been in recent years. Their pass protection is sketchy and they aren't opening holes in the run game either. That doesn't bode well against a Wisconsin team that is ironclad on defense.

Wisky lost to Penn State, but that game featured a litany of errors on the Badgers part that contributed to their downfall, the kind of errors that can occur in the first game of the year and aren't necessarily indicative of some fundamental flaw in the team. They had a couple breakdowns on defense, but the RZ turnovers were the dagger that kept Penn State in the game, otherwise Wisconsin wins and probably pulls away for the cover as well.

So after manhandling Eastern Michigan like one should, the Badgers had a bye week to get ready for this contest and I think they play closer to their ceiling this time, while Notre Dame's house of cards comes toppling down.

Wisky -6

[johnnyvegas13]

Look at u eddy posting a play

[DR225]

What do you think about the total? It seems low to me. I think Wisconsin should score in the 20s but I'm not sure how much success the Notre Dame offense will have.

[MinnesotaFats]

1st one to 21 wins the game

6.5 points too much thou it's ND or no bet

[jjgold]

Nope

Wisky has no offense

[firedawg]

correct

[johnnyvegas13]

I would take under in every whisky gm

[KVB]

My stacking percentages forecast has Wisky winning 28-27.

I have Notre Dame +6 and +6.5 in a Fund that I do not post and track but can hold it's own for sure and will beat the close over hundreds of plays. Over the last 100 plays this Fund is 55-43-2 ATS vs the open and 52-43-5 ATS vs. the close. Over those last 100 plays it was 50-50 vs. the closing line value for what amounts to about -.1 points.

When it comes to the moneyline, however, over the last 100 plays it is +7.5 units vs. the open and +8.8 units vs the close and the buys are 61-36-3 vs the close, beating it by by .16 cents.

And that's why I'm on Notre Dame +6 and +6.5.

[firedawg]

wisky 21 irish 13

[BeatTheJerk]

My stacking percentages forecast has Wisky winning 28-27.

I have Notre Dame +6 and +6.5 in a Fund that I do not post and track but can hold it's own for sure and will beat the close over hundreds of plays. Over the last 100 plays this Fund is 55-43-2 ATS vs the open and 52-43-5 ATS vs. the close. Over those last 100 plays it was 50-50 vs. the closing line value for what amounts to about -.1 points.

When it comes to the moneyline, however, over the last 100 plays it is +7.5 units vs. the open and +8.8 units vs the close and the buys are 61-36-3 vs the close, beating it by by .16 cents.

And that's why I'm on Notre Dame +6 and +6.5.

Public perception has no bearing on this play for you at all ?

[KVB]

Public perception has no bearing on this play for you at all ?

Different Funds have different strategies

Wisconsin is, in fact, a strong contrarian lean. If we get similar market activity later in the week, on Saturday, and that line is suppressed, say back to 6 or 5.5, the I could very well get a Contrarian Fund Trigger on Wisconsin.

I don't mind being on two different sides in two different Funds, because both Funds will end up profiting, so "who am I" to decide which one is correct on any given day...lol.

Discipline has a cost sometimes, but staying discipline will allow me to overcome that cost.

So yes, I am on ND +6 from the open and have Wisky -6 on the Contrarian Fund radar, but that radar is not a strong signal until we get closer to game time.

[goduke]

Bad play. Big game for Coan coming back to Wisconsin. You can chalk your play up as a loss

[gshock1]

Bad play. Big game for Coan coming back to Wisconsin. You can chalk your play up as a loss

You beat me to it! Coan had this game circled. He has decent weapons on O and theybwill have a few splash plays. The wisky D is tough and Leonard will have a good game plan. The issue is mertz. He is god awful. I think even the mediocre ND D will look good here.

The game is at soldier field though and not at wisky

[BeatTheJerk]

Different Funds have different strategies

Wisconsin is, in fact, a strong contrarian lean. If we get similar market activity later in the week, on Saturday, and that line is suppressed, say back to 6 or 5.5, the I could very well get a Contrarian Fund Trigger on Wisconsin.

I don't mind being on two different sides in two different Funds, because both Funds will end up profiting, so "who am I" to decide which one is correct on any given day...lol.

Discipline has a cost sometimes, but staying discipline will allow me to overcome that cost.

So yes, I am on ND +6 from the open and have Wisky -6 on the Contrarian Fund radar, but that radar is not a strong signal until we get closer to game time.

Thanks KVB

[KVB]

Thanks KVB

The key here is basically not to overreact to these "midweek steam moves" as poster homie put it.

And that's what we are looking at here in many other key games, mide week steam type action. Saturday could look a little different.

[thomorino]

The Irish have been walking a tight rope three games into the season with a narrow win over Florida State (who's proven to be a dumpster fire) another narrow win over Toledo (a good team granted, but still MAC caliber, and that loss to CSU is a bad look) and a win over a middling B1G team in Purdue that was able to hang around the whole game despite Notre Dame creating some distance at the end.

Now Notre Dame did find ways to win every game and that's a credit to Brian Kelly and his players, but at the same time, they are not same team in the trenches they've been in recent years. Their pass protection is sketchy and they aren't opening holes in the run game either. That doesn't bode well against a Wisconsin team that is ironclad on defense.

Wisky lost to Penn State, but that game featured a litany of errors on the Badgers part that contributed to their downfall, the kind of errors that can occur in the first game of the year and aren't necessarily indicative of some fundamental flaw in the team. They had a couple breakdowns on defense, but the RZ turnovers were the dagger that kept Penn State in the game, otherwise Wisconsin wins and probably pulls away for the cover as well.

So after manhandling Eastern Michigan like one should, the Badgers had a bye week to get ready for this contest and I think they play closer to their ceiling this time, while Notre Dame's house of cards comes toppling down.

Wisky -6

I don't see a blowout, Wisconsin's passing game is garbage, but I do think Wisconsin wins by more than a touchdown. Notre Dame's offense is very limited and Wisconsin has the best defense they've had in the schools history - too bad it won't win them anything since the quarterback play isn't good enough.

Coan only completed 50% of his passes against a Purdue defense nowhere near as good as Wisconsin's.

[TheMetsSuck]

12-3 final Wisco wins

[thomorino]

The key here is basically not to overreact to these "midweek steam moves" as poster homie put it.

And that's what we are looking at here in many other key games, mide week steam type action. Saturday could look a little different.

1-2 point moves in college football mean nothing you dumb shit. The value of 1-2 points in a college football game matters less than 1% of the time. This line hasn't even moved 3 points since the Monday open.

[KVB]

Thanks KVB

Oh there's more...

Understand that this 6 point opener is very well done by the originator, then did the books a favor as not only will action on +6 and even +6.5 early on, which they did, I know firsthand, lol, but they can move it down, and want to move it down because that will generate Wisky action but the market leads into the +5.5 and, basically, that means the Dog buying will stop, moneywise, but in this instance the public will still be picking up ND. In fact, the move downward move below 6 even has an effect of picking up public steam (not a line move, but uptick in tickets sold on ND) that will in fact get countered by big money designed to counter that very action, as well take advantage of coming off of a TD or 2 FGS, the key 6. Remember the line is important, this is a very specific description of this game's market.

So we get 5.5 at the broader open across the market, they already know the +6 will get hit. Six is a key number here, especially in this game's market. That's should be obvious.

At 5.5 with the numbers in play, the book has the public still buyng ND in bits while the real money is more split as Wisky buyers will come in, even with my forecast, on less than -6 so they take Wisky -5.5,which is a respectable position in what is essentially RLM at that point, sending the line upward, because it is respectable move. The books flushed it out.

(Like I said, 6 is important. I'm not even saying why, I'm holding that back. Let's just say that it's a key number for more reasons than the conventional way, it too has it's percentages stacked.)

There are other constraints too, such as the moneyline price and pressure, and there is some on Wisky, despite the public taking what look like the standard shots on Dame at this stage.

By floating back and forth betwen 5.5 and 6.5, they can even skip the 6, (watch for that in the market, lol, and watch the +6.5 get vigged up and the -5.5 get vigged up) the book has the ability to continue to generate action for not only a Notre Dame game, but one of two top 20 teams.

The methodologies and numbers add up, the books are put in a great situation here with this game as they can generate action at will don't have to react to the bettors, and can balance the book exactly where they need.

It's all wrapped up for them.

For me, and the Contrarian Fund, we need that money to stay on Wiskey, and the public to pick up Dame.

At +6.5, the public is taking that Dame but moneyline pressure on Wisky will keep that line from dropping, there is a balance (to a degree but, and as evidence of what I', saying, you'll notice that any moves back and forth from 6.5 to 5.5, etc won't be accompanied by much of a ml move). This will also have the effect of moving more money off of the even position of the spread and get it onto Wisky as -6.5 isn't as attractive as the -5.5 was for those buyers.

We can actually get two situations here the will cause a Contrarian Fund trigger, because we know the volume will be right. We can get both the money and tickets on Notre Dame but also have a large enough discrepency between the two to get that type of trigger as well.

The books know the market participants and in my opinion it shows in what they have done so far with this line.

But we are far from Saturday and for now the books have really set themselves up.

Chess people, it's not you against the bookie, it's you against everyone else out there. My advice is to get to know the participants.

[Smoke]

My stacking percentages forecast has Wisky winning 28-27.

I have Notre Dame +6 and +6.5 in a Fund that I do not post and track but can hold it's own for sure and will beat the close over hundreds of plays. Over the last 100 plays this Fund is 55-43-2 ATS vs the open and 52-43-5 ATS vs. the close. Over those last 100 plays it was 50-50 vs. the closing line value for what amounts to about -.1 points.

When it comes to the moneyline, however, over the last 100 plays it is +7.5 units vs. the open and +8.8 units vs the close and the buys are 61-36-3 vs the close, beating it by by .16 cents.

And that's why I'm on Notre Dame +6 and +6.5.

[thomorino]

Bad play. Big game for Coan coming back to Wisconsin. You can chalk your play up as a loss

You beat me to it! Coan had this game circled. He has decent weapons on O and theybwill have a few splash plays. The wisky D is tough and Leonard will have a good game plan. The issue is mertz. He is god awful. I think even the mediocre ND D will look good here.

The game is at soldier field though and not at wisky

Coan got hurt so Wisconsin moved on you dumb shits. he was never be chef and Wisconsin gave Down every opportunity.

[gshock1]

Coan got hurt so Wisconsin moved on you dumb shits. he was never be chef and Wisconsin gave Down every opportunity.

Why are you insulting you asshole? Nobody provoked you, fat fuk. Go order another whopper meal and dabble in your own threads.

You alone have destroyed this forum. The place is a joke allowing you here.

[Eddy Munny]

Bad play. Big game for Coan coming back to Wisconsin. You can chalk your play up as a loss

It's a nice subplot for talking heads to chew on, but it's virtually meaningless in the handicap... Is Coan suddenly gonna morph into Joe Montana simply because he'd like a dub against his old team?

You can spin it any way you want; I'd argue that the Wisconsin defensive players and coaches are hip to Coan's weaknesses and tendencies, so advantage goes to the Badgers. See? It's in the eye of the beholder, that's why I left it off the table and focused more on facts that aren't subject to opinion.

Plus everyone is saying Mertz is garbage. Well what does that spell for the guy that had to transfer because he couldn't beat out the guy that was garbage? I actually don't mind Mertz in this situation, he doesn't have to play hero ball, and his weapons are being vastly underestimated by some people in this thread. Wide receivers Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, as well as TE Ferguson are plenty capable of getting it done.

I think Badgers win by double digits. I'm not even sure what people see in ND other than the halo of the golden helmets.

[thomorino]

Why are you insulting you asshole? Nobody provoked you, fat fuk. Go order another another whopper meal and dabble in your own threads.

You alone have destroyed this forum. The place is a joke allowing you here.

I own you, you fall apart every time I expose your dumb comments you dumb shit.

Wisconsin made Coan, without the offensive Wisconsin offensive line and running game he's nothing. He hurt his foot last year so they moved om, they did what any team would have done.

[gshock1]

I own you, you fall apart every time I expose your dumb comments you dumb shit.

Wisconsin made Coan, without the offensive Wisconsin offensive line and running game he's nothing. He hurt his foot last year so they moved om, they did what any team would have done.

You do not own anything or anybody you loser.

Even debating an imbecile like you is impossible because when facts and real proof are presented you say the stupidest stuff ever.

Wipe the ketchup off the side of your mouth slob.

[thomorino]

It's a nice subplot for talking heads to chew on, but it's virtually meaningless in the handicap... Is Coan suddenly gonna morph into Joe Montana simply because he'd like a dub against his old team?

You can spin it any way you want; I'd argue that the Wisconsin defensive players and coaches are hip to Coan's weaknesses and tendencies, so advantage goes to the Badgers. See? It's in the eye of the beholder, that's why I left it off the table and focused more of facts that aren't subject to opinion.

Plus everyone is saying Mertz is garbage. Well what does that spell for the guy that had to transfer because he couldn't beat out the guy that was garbage? I actually don't mind Mertz in this situation, he doesn't have to play hero ball, and his weapons are being vastly underestimated by some people in this thread. Wide receivers Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, as well as TE Ferguson are plenty capable of getting it done.

I think Badgers win by double digits. I'm not even sure what people see in ND other than the halo of the golden helmets.

Mertz has been bad but I agree with you he wnt likely have to do much here.

Wisconsin made Coan and gave him every opportunity, he got hurt last year and it was a short season so they moved on after his great game against Illinois. Things have worked out well for Clan anyways.

[vitterd]

Why are you insulting you asshole? Nobody provoked you, fat fuk. Go order another whopper meal and dabble in your own threads.

You alone have destroyed this forum. The place is a joke allowing you here.

He’s unhinged because his threads are getting ignored. He’s gonna get worse.

[thomorino]

You do not own anything or anybody you loser.

Even debating an imbecile like you is impossible because when facts and real proof are presented you say the stupidest stuff ever.

Wipe the ketchup off the side of your mouth slob.

Stop talking you dumb shit, you are ignorant about everything. Wisconsin made Coan, they didn't bench him, they moved on because he got hurt.

[thomorino]

He’s unhinged because his threads are getting ignored. He’s gonna get worse.

This turd literally follows around in every thread. Stop talking dumb shit.

[gshock1]

Mertz has been bad but I agree with you he wnt likely have to do much here.

Wisconsin made Coan and gave him every opportunity, he got hurt last year and it was a short season so they moved on after his great game against Illinois. Things have worked out well for Clan anyways.

Mertz is as bad as you are at capping.

Here’s an offer. I take ND +6.5 you take wisky -6.5. Loser leaves the forum. I would wager you 5k on this game but you don’t have the balls to do that.

[thomorino]

Mertz is as bad as you are at capping.

Here’s an offer. I take ND +6.5 you take wisky -6.5. Loser leaves the forum. I would wager you 5k on this game but you don’t have the balls to do that.

Variance is very high in college football, it doesn't make sense to make a loser leaves the forum bet forever over 1 game.

I own you every time we go head to head, you spent 3 months thinking Utah was a matchup nightmare for the Clippers you dumb shit.

[gshock1]

Variance is very high in college football, it doesn't make sense to make a loser leaves the forum bet forever over 1 game.

I own you every time we go head to head, you spent 3 months thinking Utah was a matchup nightmare for the Clippers you dumb shit.

Pu**y

[kidcudi92]

Gonna pound them OLD STYLE

[gshock1]

Variance is very high in college football, it doesn't make sense to make a loser leaves the forum bet forever over 1 game.

I own you every time we go head to head, you spent 3 months thinking Utah was a matchup nightmare for the Clippers you dumb shit.

Full of excuses and the vagina using his 2nd favorite v word.

You *** guzzler nobody said Coan got released from his scholarship.

Afraid to wager. You would kill your self if you lost and had to leave.

[vitterd]

Mertz is as bad as you are at capping.

Here’s an offer. I take ND +6.5 you take wisky -6.5. Loser leaves the forum. I would wager you 5k on this game but you don’t have the balls to do that.

He has no money and won’t honor any bet. Do not wager with him.