How Many of You Would Actually Bet This?

[magpie878]

So under a few of the NFL games, DraftKings had a "DK Promotion" tab.. for example, it had Mahomes throwing 1+ passing TDs at -900. Sunday night, I saw one on the Ravens game.

"Lamar Jackson over 0.5 completions" -10000

The only way you lose, basically, is an injury on the first play.

I ended up betting it. I didn't bet the Mahomes prop though I was tempted.. should have.

Would you?

[RudyRuetigger]

how much did you bet?

[Preds13]

So under a few of the NFL games, DraftKings had a "DK Promotion" tab.. for example, it had Mahomes throwing 1+ passing TDs at -900. Sunday night, I saw one on the Ravens game.

"Lamar Jackson over 0.5 completions" -10000

The only way you lose, basically, is an injury on the first play.

I ended up betting it. I didn't bet the Mahomes prop though I was tempted.. should have.

Would you?

That bet and others like it main purpose is for randomly targeted bonuses for people who haven’t played in a while , one of my boys got one on that exact game , Lamar over 0.5 completions boosted to +100 , max bet $100. They are even listed under DK promotions tab.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

No I would not bet it. Great, you win a few dollars or cents...but you lose the farm if the QB gets injured early on. The risk is not worth the reward.

[magpie878]

how much did you bet?

Enough to almost make $200

That bet and others like it main purpose is for randomly targeted bonuses for people who haven’t played in a while , one of my boys got one on that exact game , Lamar over 0.5 completions boosted to +100 , max bet $100. They are even listed under DK promotions tab.

Right, I've seen many boosts over the years. I've also seen promos that are only promos in other states, but still show up, just without boosted odds. Like this one. I assumed it was still a max capped bet play, but it was not.

No I would not bet it. Great, you win a few dollars or cents...but you lose the farm if the QB gets injured early on. The risk is not worth the reward.

Sure, there's risk. Risk in every single bet that isn't one of those DK promo locks or something like those. But how many instances can you think of where a starting QB gets hurt and out for good before completing one pass? In odds terms, probably even better (or worse, depending on your use of the terms) than -10000.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Enough to almost make $200

Right, I've seen many boosts over the years. I've also seen promos that are only promos in other states, but still show up, just without boosted odds. Like this one. I assumed it was still a max capped bet play, but it was not.

Sure, there's risk. Risk in every single bet that isn't one of those DK promo locks or something like those. But how many instances can you think of where a starting QB gets hurt and out for good before completing one pass? In odds terms, probably even better (or worse, depending on your use of the terms) than -10000.

If you like those type of bets, Brock Landers or otters might be posters that you want to tail.

[magpie878]

If you like those type of bets, Brock Landers or otters might be posters that you want to tail.

First of all, "like" isn't the right word. But I did it.

I get this type of bet isn't for everyone, that's why I was curious who'd actually do it. But this also isn't some "pick a side" or "taking a heavy favorite" or "team total that seems easy" bet... it's ONE completion from a top QB and the only way to lose is pretty much first-play of the game injury. Again, how often does that happen? Can you name a time?

Anyway, easy money with high risk. And I've sweated out bets before for much lesser money.. no anxiety on that one.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

First of all, "like" isn't the right word. But I did it.

I get this type of bet isn't for everyone, that's why I was curious who'd actually do it. But this also isn't some "pick a side" or "taking a heavy favorite" or "team total that seems easy" bet... it's ONE completion from a top QB and the only way to lose is pretty much first-play of the game injury. Again, how often does that happen? Can you name a time?

Anyway, easy money with high risk. And I've sweated out bets before for much lesser money.. no anxiety on that one.

Congrats but no upside in my eyes.

[sjm5122]

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller

[jjgold]

lol idiots invest a ton to win pennies

[magpie878]

Regardless of insults, I'm still waiting for the last time, if anyone can name it, that a good starting QB ended with under 0.5 completions.

Odds should have been -100000.

[jtoler]

but wut if he doesnt play do u lose or is it a push

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

so u bet almost $20,000 to win almost $200... in no universe does this make any logical sense to me

[JIBBBY]

Where is SEAWEED? He loves this kind of wagering.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is the type of wager that people who just have to try and make a name for themselves make. Only children would bother to even post this garbage.

[jjgold]

This is the type of wager that people who just have to try and make a name for themselves make. Only children would bother to even post this garbage.

[fried cheese]

i think that bet is probably a good bet. i doubt there is an average of 1 qb every 4 weeks in the nfl getting hurt before they complete a pass. most gamblers are looking for big returns though so they wont bet that.

[magpie878]

but wut if he doesnt play do u lose or is it a push

Any prop with DK, the player has to play. Void otherwise.

so u bet almost $20,000 to win almost $200... in no universe does this make any logical sense to me

Well, trying a google search quickly earlier, I found zero instances of a quality starter getting under 0.5 completions, even when they ended with a zero passer rating. I actually didn't find under 0.5 for crappy QBs either. So for something that possibly has never happened, why not take the easy money?

This is the type of wager that people who just have to try and make a name for themselves make. Only children would bother to even post this garbage.

Another quality post from the lifelong miserable human being. I post occasionally. I'm not making any name for myself, I was genuinely curious on people's thoughts.. and I don't go around insulting them when I don't agree. Par for the course with you, though.

i think that bet is probably a good bet. i doubt there is an average of 1 qb every 4 weeks in the nfl getting hurt before they complete a pass. most gamblers are looking for big returns though so they wont bet that.

As I said above, I couldn't even find one instance of this happening. The probability makes it a good bet, the odds just scare most people away.


Would someone bet -10000 on "Will you die tomorrow at -10000 no" or are the odds too scary?

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

CIN

1

1

66

0

0

0

0

66

118.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Very Close, 2006

Steve Young also injured in 1st quarter vs Bucs

Trying to think if there's others

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

Found one, Phil Simms

1989

1989-10-30

8

8

33.361

NYG

MIN

W 24-14

*

0

1

0.00

0

0

0

39.6

1

5

0.00

0.00

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

[JAKEPEAVY21]

You asked for input and many have given their thoughts.

It's a foolish bet in my eyes but you do you sir...

[magpie878]

Found one, Phil Simms

1989

1989-10-30

8

8

33.361

NYG

MIN

W 24-14

*

0

1

0.00

0

0

0

39.6

1

5

0.00

0.00

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Thanks! So over 30 years. I appreciate you looking harder than I did. I'll bet again on a 30+ year occurrence, probably, if I see one like that again.

You asked for input and many have given their thoughts.

It's a foolish bet in my eyes but you do you sir...

I know, and I appreciate everyone who chimed in with thoughts. I just don't know why there needs to be insults, though why would I expect any differently?

So.. if anyone is still reading this... and this instance hasn't happened since Simms in '89, shouldn't (yes, this was a "promo" somewhere) the odds be even worse than -10000?

[Art Vandelay]

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller

Such a great analogy!

[JIBBBY]

[Rabiddog33]

Eli Manning had a game where he didn't complete a pass is rookie year it was against the Ravens defense. When Ray Lewis and gang were playing.

Where did you place this bet?

[asiagambler]

Good bet

Odds should be much shorter

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Thanks! So over 30 years. I appreciate you looking harder than I did. I'll bet again on a 30+ year occurrence, probably, if I see one like that again.


I know, and I appreciate everyone who chimed in with thoughts. I just don't know why there needs to be insults, though why would I expect any differently?

So.. if anyone is still reading this... and this instance hasn't happened since Simms in '89, shouldn't (yes, this was a "promo" somewhere) the odds be even worse than -10000?

Not sure there are as many insults as posters just saying it's not a smart bet. You obviously think different so keep firing away. Good luck hopefully you don't bury yourself with the high juice "lock" bets.

[5mike5]

i always thought those markets were for other states that had promos running on those specific wagers or something, and they just don't show the boost to _100 or whtever cause it wasn't offered in my area...

never crossed my mind anybody would consider betting -9000s.....well besides Otters obv

[jjgold]

Draftkings is very innovative actually more than any book

[magpie878]

Eli Manning had a game where he didn't complete a pass is rookie year it was against the Ravens defense. When Ray Lewis and gang were playing.
Where did you place this bet?

As I said in post #1, DraftKings. And I looked up Manning's stats from that game on ESPN and it says he was 4 for 18.

Not sure there are as many insults as posters just saying it's not a smart bet. You obviously think different so keep firing away. Good luck hopefully you don't bury yourself with the high juice "lock" bets.

Like I said, I appreciate EVERY reply that's not an insult, and there's only been two... indirectly calling me a child and idiot. I expected many to say the bet is foolish or dumb or whatever. That's great, that's feedback about the BET, not me. But each to his own. This was the first bet of this kind I'd done or seen. I would absolutely never take a side on odds like that.. or even a team total or anything like that. Again, my opinion was the odds were way off and an easy way to make a couple hundred. That's not pennies to me. Just my opinion.

i always thought those markets were for other states that had promos running on those specific wagers or something, and they just don't show the boost to _100 or whtever cause it wasn't offered in my area...
never crossed my mind anybody would consider betting -9000s.....well besides Otters obv

You're correct and I think I said something like that earlier. It's a promo from elsewhere but shows up without the boost. Otters picks sides and totals and stuff. Never seen him do a prop like this one.

[lonegambler23]

So under a few of the NFL games, DraftKings had a "DK Promotion" tab.. for example, it had Mahomes throwing 1+ passing TDs at -900. Sunday night, I saw one on the Ravens game.

"Lamar Jackson over 0.5 completions" -10000

The only way you lose, basically, is an injury on the first play.

I ended up betting it. I didn't bet the Mahomes prop though I was tempted.. should have.

Would you?

landers and otters specialty. absolutely not.