Bet Numbers Only

Jayvegas420 · 04-20-21, 07:55 AM

the stats are either built into the line or they arent.
How does this philosophy differ from team sports to individual?

Vyasports · 04-20-21, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

the stats are either built into the line or they arent.
How does this philosophy differ from team sports to individual?

<br>
usually most opening lines (odds) reflect the stats. news travel fast then lines move; so i do not understand the point The File Clerk trying to make here... care to elaborate more?<br>

juicername · 04-20-21, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

What makes you think that you can see something in the odds that make you special?

Chi_archie · 04-20-21, 08:06 AM

1-1 plus 1.0 units

d2bets · 04-20-21, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

One of your better posts.

pologq · 04-20-21, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

The File Clerk has better betting posts

stevenash · 04-20-21, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

I get my edge in baseball prop bets from stats.
I have to disagree with you here Coach.

Case in point,
JD Martinez of the Red Sox destroys LHP
Probably the best hitter in the majors against lefties.

Tonight Martinez faces a LHP in Ryu (Toronto)
Martinez like I said destroys LHP.
These are his numbers v. LHP for the past three seasons.
The power numbers are insane, if he played a 162 game season against LHP he'd hi 60 or just about 60 HR's.

Season

Name

Tm

G

PA

AB

HR

R

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

0BA

Total

J.D. Martinez

BOS

181

378

328

29

70

79

42

79

0.344512

0.422

I don't see any player props posted yet.
Let's say the prop bet for JD tonight is

Will Martinez get a hit
Y -110
N -110

What's the first question are you going to ask yourself if you make a bet on this prop?
That's correct. "Can JD Martinez hit LHP. The answer is a resounding FUK YEAH
You may also be wondering can Martinez hit Ryu? Thee answer once again is yes. (.300 but a small sample size)

Those are the most important questions and answers you need to know about that prop bet.
If the prop is -110, and Martinez's history against LHP is chances are better than 1 out of every 3 at bats results in a hit, and pretty much sets a hit every three times vs, Ryu

Martinez is pretty much guaranteed 4 at bats tonight, and has better than a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit (based on historical statistical data)
Presented with this data, who has the edge here if the prop betting line is -110 man to man?

Baseball is pretty much stat driven.

Baseball analytics is coming to an informed conclusion on how a player or team most likely will perform when presented with all the facts and data.

d2bets · 04-20-21, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I get my edge in baseball prop bets from stats.
I have to disagree with you here Coach.

Case in point,
JD Martinez of the Red Sox destroys LHP
Probably the best hitter in the majors against lefties.

Tonight Martinez faces a LHP in Ryu (Toronto)
Martinez like I said destroys LHP.
These are his numbers v. LHP for the past three seasons.
The power numbers are insane, if he played a 162 game season against LHP he'd hi 60 or just about 60 HR's.

Season

Name

Tm

G

PA

AB

HR

R

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

0BA

Total

J.D. Martinez

BOS

181

378

328

29

70

79

42

79

0.344512

0.422

I don't see any player props posted yet.
Let's say the prop bet for JD tonight is

Will Martinez get a hit
Y -110
N -110

What's the first question are you going to ask yourself if you make a bet on this prop?
That's correct. "Can JD Martinez hit LHP. The answer is a resounding FUK YEAH
You may also be wondering can Martinez hit Ryu? Thee answer once again is yes. (.300 but a small sample size)

Those are the most important questions and answers you need to know about that prop bet.
If the prop is -110, and Martinez's history against LHP is chances are better than 1 out of every 3 at bats results in a hit, and pretty much sets a hit every three times vs, Ryu

Martinez is pretty much guaranteed 4 at bats tonight, and has better than a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit (based on historical statistical data)
Presented with this data, who has the edge here if the prop betting line is -110 man to man?

Baseball is pretty much stat driven.

Baseball analytics is coming to an informed conclusion on how a player or team most likely will perform when presented with all the facts and data.

And you don't think the sportsbooks have that data?

That line doesn't tell me enough in isolation. I want to compare around and see what the line is at as many sportsbooks as possible and see what the most trusted books have. The I have a better idea what to do.

stevenash · 04-20-21, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

And you don't think the sportsbooks have that data?

That line doesn't tell me enough in isolation. I want to compare around and see what the line is at as many sportsbooks as possible and see what the most trusted books have. The I have a better idea what to do.

I have a pretty good idea what it's going to be.
The 'y' will be juiced and the line will be around -140 / +110
At -140 the edge is pretty much neutralized.

As a geek who is obsessed with stats and numbers who has access to databases that I can query in a heartbeat trust me when I say the books do hang soft numbers at times on player props. They don't make a habit on that, but they do on occasions.

Your job as a serious sports bettor is to seek out those soft numbers.
If you're a dart thrower who is ignorant of all the data you'll get eaten alive on betting player props.

d2bets · 04-20-21, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I have a pretty good idea what it's going to be.
The 'y' will be juiced and the line will be around -140 / +110
At -140 the edge is pretty much neutralized.

As a geek who is obsessed with stats and numbers who has access to databases that I can query in a heartbeat trust me when I say the books do hang soft numbers at times on player props. They don't make a habit on that, but they do on occasions.

Your job as a serious sports bettor is to seek out those soft numbers.
If you're a dart thrower who is ignorant of all the data you'll get eaten alive on betting player props.

Yep. Good stuff.

Fishhead · 04-20-21, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

One of your better posts

pologq · 04-20-21, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I have a pretty good idea what it's going to be.
The 'y' will be juiced and the line will be around -140 / +110
At -140 the edge is pretty much neutralized.

As a geek who is obsessed with stats and numbers who has access to databases that I can query in a heartbeat trust me when I say the books do hang soft numbers at times on player props. They don't make a habit on that, but they do on occasions.

Your job as a serious sports bettor is to seek out those soft numbers.
If you're a dart thrower who is ignorant of all the data you'll get eaten alive on betting player props.

exactly. well said.

cincinnatikid513 · 04-20-21, 11:39 AM

vividjohn45 · 04-20-21, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

Jj have the mods pay raise been rubber stamped by you yet, mr. File clerk ? Id say give genie a raise for being a hottie, But its proly sexist. I would give shari a raise if she would date me.

dlowilly · 04-20-21, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I get my edge in baseball prop bets from stats.
I have to disagree with you here Coach.

Case in point,
JD Martinez of the Red Sox destroys LHP
Probably the best hitter in the majors against lefties.

Tonight Martinez faces a LHP in Ryu (Toronto)
Martinez like I said destroys LHP.
These are his numbers v. LHP for the past three seasons.
The power numbers are insane, if he played a 162 game season against LHP he'd hi 60 or just about 60 HR's.

Season

Name

Tm

G

PA

AB

HR

R

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

0BA

Total

J.D. Martinez

BOS

181

378

328

29

70

79

42

79

0.344512

0.422

I don't see any player props posted yet.
Let's say the prop bet for JD tonight is

Will Martinez get a hit
Y -110
N -110

What's the first question are you going to ask yourself if you make a bet on this prop?
That's correct. "Can JD Martinez hit LHP. The answer is a resounding FUK YEAH
You may also be wondering can Martinez hit Ryu? Thee answer once again is yes. (.300 but a small sample size)

Those are the most important questions and answers you need to know about that prop bet.
If the prop is -110, and Martinez's history against LHP is chances are better than 1 out of every 3 at bats results in a hit, and pretty much sets a hit every three times vs, Ryu

Martinez is pretty much guaranteed 4 at bats tonight, and has better than a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit (based on historical statistical data)
Presented with this data, who has the edge here if the prop betting line is -110 man to man?

Baseball is pretty much stat driven.

Baseball analytics is coming to an informed conclusion on how a player or team most likely will perform when presented with all the facts and data.

I look at Batter vs Pitcher stats too while some dismiss it as data mining

Some hitters just do well against some pitchers and I think those past stats can predict future performance. They see the ball better, are more comfortable with the delivery, etc.

Getch13 · 04-20-21, 01:02 PM

2014	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0
2017	6	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	.200	.333	.400	.733	0	0	0	0	0	0
Full results available for Stathead subscribers. Subscribe or log in.

Results

Sorting only sorts the values in the table shown

J.D. Martinez vs. Hyun Jin Ryu

2014	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0
2017	6	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	.200	.333	.400	.733	0	0	0	0	0	0
Full results available for Stathead subscribers. Subscribe or log in.

trytrytry · 04-20-21, 01:18 PM

key the 3 in powerball.

flyingillini · 04-20-21, 09:36 PM

Good call Mario

jjgold · 04-20-21, 09:36 PM

Got a remember in tennis it’s one on one, a baseball game many people can impact the game if other screws up

Team sports make it random because so many variables

vividjohn45 · 04-20-21, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Got a remember in tennis it’s one on one, a baseball game many people can impact the game if other screws up

Team sports make it random because so many variables

Except the 2021 dodgers, they flat out kik everyones azz

gauchojake · 04-20-21, 11:46 PM

Good post jj. Always use stats

Fishhead · 04-21-21, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by trytrytry

key the 3 in powerball.

This

Fishhead · 04-21-21, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Got a remember in tennis it’s one on one, a baseball game many people can impact the game if other screws up

Team sports make it random because so many variables

This

stevenash · 04-21-21, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Got a remember in tennis it’s one on one, a baseball game many people can impact the game if other screws up

Team sports make it random because so many variables

No.
There's only one player that impacts the game.
The pitcher.
It starts and ends with the pitcher.

If you can't hit the ball or you can't get on base, you can't win.

You can't score a run if you can't get on base, and you can't win a game if you can't score a run.

RudyRuetigger · 04-21-21, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I get my edge in baseball prop bets from stats.
I have to disagree with you here Coach.

Case in point,
JD Martinez of the Red Sox destroys LHP
Probably the best hitter in the majors against lefties.

Tonight Martinez faces a LHP in Ryu (Toronto)
Martinez like I said destroys LHP.
These are his numbers v. LHP for the past three seasons.
The power numbers are insane, if he played a 162 game season against LHP he'd hi 60 or just about 60 HR's.

Season

Name

Tm

G

PA

AB

HR

R

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

0BA

Total

J.D. Martinez

BOS

181

378

328

29

70

79

42

79

0.344512

0.422

I don't see any player props posted yet.
Let's say the prop bet for JD tonight is

Will Martinez get a hit
Y -110
N -110

What's the first question are you going to ask yourself if you make a bet on this prop?
That's correct. "Can JD Martinez hit LHP. The answer is a resounding FUK YEAH
You may also be wondering can Martinez hit Ryu? Thee answer once again is yes. (.300 but a small sample size)

Those are the most important questions and answers you need to know about that prop bet.
If the prop is -110, and Martinez's history against LHP is chances are better than 1 out of every 3 at bats results in a hit, and pretty much sets a hit every three times vs, Ryu

Martinez is pretty much guaranteed 4 at bats tonight, and has better than a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit (based on historical statistical data)
Presented with this data, who has the edge here if the prop betting line is -110 man to man?

Baseball is pretty much stat driven.

Baseball analytics is coming to an informed conclusion on how a player or team most likely will perform when presented with all the facts and data.

do you have a baseball thread this year??

stevenash · 04-21-21, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

do you have a baseball thread this year??

I do indeed.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3653496-happy-2021-mlb-new-year-all.html

bhoor · 04-21-21, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Stop looking at stats

Edge is only in odds

If stats mattered many would win just like racetrack racing form

Everything reflected in the numbers anyway your not seeing something that makes you special

The File Clerk

Side Note: Maybe Tennis and some golf situations some stats matter because individual sports

Agreed! stats for degenerates.

bhoor · 04-21-21, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I do indeed.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-year-all.html

I would like to see how you finish the year.

stevenash · 04-21-21, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

I would like to see how you finish the year.

Same as most years, plus.

RudyRuetigger · 04-21-21, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I do indeed.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-year-all.html

thanks bro, somehow i completely missed it

always said you are one of if not the sharpest at mlb around here

jjgold · 04-22-21, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by bhoor

Agreed! stats for degenerates.

yep 10000%

flyingillini · 04-22-21, 07:36 AM

JJ, just pick a side.