When to invest more capital?

[Mac4Lyfe]

That's just not true. As Roger says, if you're consistently beating closing lines over a large sample size, while also practicing proper bankroll management, you're going to be on the "right side" and profitable.

If you knew math/statistics, you would know that this is not possible. But carry on.

[KVB]

If you knew math/statistics, you would know that this is not possible. But carry on.

That's ridiculous Mac, that's not what "math/statstics" say.

I've posted 1000's of plays at SBR which include tracking the performance against the closing line, with links to every play.

That tracking alone shows you are wrong.

But we don't need the real life evidence to show it, you are wrong anyway. You can play the low info guy at SBR with politics and news, but don't just talk out of your ass and claim math backs it up when it comes to sports betting.

There are professionals here, real sports bettors not just fans who bet games, that will put you in your place.

[Mac4Lyfe]

That's ridiculous Mac, that's not what "math/statstics" say.I've posted 1000's of plays at SBR which include tracking the performance against the closing line, with links to every play.That tracking alone shows you are wrong.But we don't need the real life evidence to show it, you are wrong anyway. You can play the low info guy at SBR with politics and news, but don't just talk out of your ass and claim math backs it up when it comes to sports betting.There are professionals here, real sports bettors not just fans who bet games, that will put you in your place.

So KVB - you are one in 100. I'm not disputing your record but the overall record of the masses... Not good. Pros and non pros.

[d2bets]

If you knew math/statistics, you would know that this is not possible. But carry on.

What's not possible? Beating the closing line? If you have experience, access to info, and are quick to act, you certainly can beat the closing line.

And one can certainly win consistently. I can personally guarantee it. You just have to know how to find value. It's all over the place if you word hard and know what you are looking for. Perhaps for most people there are easier ways to make money, but it's definitely doable, depending of course in which markets you are accessing at any time.

[d2bets]

So KVB - you are one in 100. I'm not disputing your record but the overall record of the masses... Not good. Pros and non pros.

1 in 100 is certainly "possible" though, isn't it? Just because most can't or won't do it, doesn't make it impossible. Plus, there are many ways to skin a cat. It all comes back to value though. I do agree though, if you were just to bet major sports ATS only against the closing line right before game start, you would not be able to beat standard vig over a long-term of plays. Just not enough value there.

[Mac4Lyfe]

What's not possible? Beating the closing line? If you have experience, access to info, and are quick to act, you certainly can beat the closing line.
And one can certainly win consistently. I can personally guarantee it. You just have to know how to find value. It's all over the place if you word hard and know what you are looking for. Perhaps for most people there are easier ways to make money, but it's definitely doable, depending of course in which markets you are accessing at any time.

Maybe I need to follow you and KVB's bets more closely.

[Mac4Lyfe]

1 in 100 is certainly "possible" though, isn't it? Just because most can't or won't do it, doesn't make it impossible. Plus, there are many ways to skin a cat. It all comes back to value though. I do agree though, if you were just to bet major sports ATS only against the closing line right before game start, you would not be able to beat standard vig over a long-term of plays. Just not enough value there.

Anything is possible. I'm sure 1 person out of 100 is beating the house (maybe more) but who that 1 person or persons will be next month is probably a mystery. Especially if that person is betting the NBA like the OP.

[d2bets]

Maybe I need to follow you and KVB's bets more closely.

Not me. That's just not how I bet. The way I bet requires specific outs at specific moments, lots of live and halftimes, that sort of thing. Just not conducive to the "posting of plays" sort of thing. Sounds like a copout, I know, but it is what it is. If I didn't know better, I probably would not believe if someone had directly claimed they did what I've done. Not trying to brag, just being honest. Then again, I know my kind of success is somewhat fleeting and while I know I won't "lose it back", I also tend to doubt whether I will have the same going forward success. Starting to run into some roadblocks. So I never rely on things remaining as is going forward.

That 1 person out of 100 is beating the house every month, or practically every month. It's not a mystery.

I'm not a huge NBA guy (although not opposed to it), but I do believe that the NBA this season has been unusually unkind to sharps. I made my hey the past several months mostly on college.

[Black Coffee]

Good thread...

It seems many people are diving into the sports betting aspect only..

To address the original OP's questions.. IMO, it may be better to take your programming skills to the financial market. It's more competitive, but also has a much bigger upside w/o the scaling issues or having to worry about bookies limiting you and/or cutting you off.

Also, as you stated, you don't expect your outs to continue to take limit bets and edges can (and do) disappear quickly in sports betting. So you may have advised yourself on what is best to do.

Hope this helps!