Missed Extra Point Prop a Good Bet?

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  • pologq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-07-12
    • 19899

    #1
    Missed Extra Point Prop a Good Bet?
    Yes (missed extra point after TD) +234
    No (missed extra point after TD) -319

    Worth some on Yes right?
  • RudyRuetigger
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-24-10
    • 65084

    #2
    does a missed 2pt conversion count??????
    Comment
    • pologq
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-07-12
      • 19899

      #3
      specifically for PAT. just hovered over the fine print area.
      Comment
      • carolinakid
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-11
        • 19106

        #4
        wait until very late to see if the game will have any good wind
        Comment
        • pimike
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 03-23-08
          • 37140

          #5
          Nobody Can kick this year, so yea.

          Lol
          Comment
          • carolinakid
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-12-11
            • 19106

            #6
            the 1st score with be a fg always a good bet for the sb
            Comment
            • Igor_1965
              SBR MVP
              • 04-18-15
              • 2632

              #7
              I think Brady interception is a good bet, if you can have it around EVENS
              Comment
              • pologq
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-07-12
                • 19899

                #8
                Originally posted by Igor_1965
                I think Brady interception is a good bet, if you can have it around EVENS
                i think so too. even if they win or he plays well there will be 1 int.
                Comment
                • pologq
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-07-12
                  • 19899

                  #9
                  Originally posted by pimike
                  Nobody Can kick this year, so yea.

                  Lol
                  exactly lol


                  and carolina, you are right about the wind. i think it is worth $$ even with no wind.
                  Comment
                  • aveeno
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-27-20
                    • 284

                    #10


                    Both K.C and Tampa in the bottom quartile.
                    Comment
                    • pologq
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-07-12
                      • 19899

                      #11
                      Originally posted by aveeno
                      https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct

                      Both K.C and Tampa in the bottom quartile.
                      good stats, thanks
                      Comment
                      • pimike
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 03-23-08
                        • 37140

                        #12
                        Missed extra point

                        Does Brady throw a pick



                        YES
                        YES

                        Good thinking.


                        Looking over props myself.



                        Need brother Seahawk Harry to chime in. The prop king.


                        Good job men.
                        Comment
                        • USCPHILLYGUY
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-15-12
                          • 21746

                          #13
                          Saw some interesting props through wagertalk.

                          team to score last wins game has won 11 straight.

                          Longest TD UNDER 48.5 yards 4-1 last 5

                          Score 1st 6 minutes has been NO the last 4 years

                          Under 3.5 FG is UNDER 7 of last 10 years.
                          Comment
                          • carolinakid
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-12-11
                            • 19106

                            #14
                            they need over and under the targeting hits
                            Comment
                            • ace7550
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-08-15
                              • 3729

                              #15
                              I definitely like Brady +0.5 INT's.
                              I'm not in on the missed extra point though.
                              Butker has hit 14 of his last 15. Succop has hit 13 of his last 14. At +234 it's pretty much a toss up. If it's windy it's +EV. If the weather is nice I'd probably pass.
                              Comment
                              • pimike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-23-08
                                • 37140

                                #16
                                Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY
                                Saw some interesting props through wagertalk.

                                team to score last wins game has won 11 straight.

                                Longest TD UNDER 48.5 yards 4-1 last 5

                                Score 1st 6 minutes has been NO the last 4 years

                                Under 3.5 FG is UNDER 7 of last 10 years.
                                Good stuff.. however Hill could bust a longer TD than 48 yards.
                                Comment
                                • ace7550
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-08-15
                                  • 3729

                                  #17
                                  Of all the superbowl props I've seen I like the over on this one the most:

                                  Super Bowl Commercials
                                  How many commercials will show person wearing mask
                                  06:30 PM 55018 Over 2½ Commercials -400
                                  55019 Under 2½ Commercials +250
                                  Comment
                                  • pimike
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 03-23-08
                                    • 37140

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by ace7550
                                    Of all the superbowl props I've seen I like the over on this one the most:

                                    Super Bowl Commercials
                                    How many commercials will show person wearing mask
                                    06:30 PM 55018 Over 2½ Commercials -400
                                    55019 Under 2½ Commercials +250
                                    Haha!!!


                                    Over with these people in office
                                    Comment
                                    • ace7550
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-08-15
                                      • 3729

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ace7550
                                      Of all the superbowl props I've seen I like the over on this one the most:

                                      Super Bowl Commercials
                                      How many commercials will show person wearing mask
                                      06:30 PM 55018 Over 2½ Commercials -400
                                      55019 Under 2½ Commercials +250
                                      I just went to BOL to max bet this. I clicked on max bet and BOL entered in $10.00 for me
                                      Why even put a line up for something you are only willing to take $10.00 on?
                                      Comment
                                      • thomorino
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 06-01-17
                                        • 45842

                                        #20
                                        I don’t see any value unless their is supposed to be significant wind.
                                        Comment
                                        • pologq
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-07-12
                                          • 19899

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ace7550
                                          Of all the superbowl props I've seen I like the over on this one the most:

                                          Super Bowl Commercials
                                          How many commercials will show person wearing mask
                                          06:30 PM 55018 Over 2½ Commercials -400
                                          55019 Under 2½ Commercials +250
                                          Comment
                                          • DrunkHorseplayer
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 05-15-10
                                            • 7719

                                            #22
                                            Over 6.5 TD's at -120 looks good.
                                            Comment
                                            • Otters27
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 07-14-07
                                              • 30760

                                              #23
                                              Could happen easily. Worth a small shot
                                              Comment
                                              • Chi_archie
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 07-22-08
                                                • 63172

                                                #24
                                                just depends on how many extra points you think are kicked. which depends upon how many TD's you think are scored and how close the game is.

                                                about 11% of attempted extra point kicks will statistically be missed in this game

                                                is that worth a bet on YES that pays out at 29.94% probability equivalency?


                                                with these coaches and this kind of game, I can easily see a situation where we end up in a two point conversion off, after just 1, 2 or 3 tds
                                                Comment
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