Undervalued Superbowl odds

[Snowball]

Bills 25/1

what else

[Easy-Rider 66]

true looks way too high. for they probably are 2nd best team in AFC.

[rm18]

That is an off market line but they still will be an underdog 3 times if they play Baltimore so I don't think it is that great of value.

[johnnyvegas13]

Pretty sure they lose to chiefs in afc gm

pretyy clear 1 and 2 unless a huge upset

[Hman]

Pretty sure they lose to chiefs in afc gm

pretyy clear 1 and 2 unless a huge upset

But can be hedged at that price

[sackdud]

bills are crushing teams

1 lucky hail mary away from being on an 8-0 streak

should be 13-1

[Easy-Rider 66]

7

GREEN BAY PACKERS

+1200

22

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

+600

Interesting line from SBR Book for the Super Bowl. surprised not about the same odds for both. maybe GB should even be favored over TB.

[Snowball]

The degree to which the Bills will be dogs against KC and Baltimore are still nowhere near approaching the value of taking Bills at +2500.
Add up all the expected odds they will get in facing opponents, it doesn't reach, this is why it has value.

The Bills will host their WC game and be favored. So you can take the dog there at probably around +150. Say you put 100 on Bills SB, that is only going to cost 75. Now you're in for 175. Bills lose, you break even. Bills win, your cost is 175 to win 2500. Onward....
Let's say the Divisional Round Bills opponent is Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, Miami, etc. It cannot be KC, because KC will face a lower tier opponent. Bills might not even be dogs. It's at Ralph Wilson again or at Pittsburgh. Worst case they are +175 dogs with Pitt around -185 or so. The thing is, Pitt is unlikely to get the 2 Seed and are sitting Ben this week. Anyway, say -200 which is high. You have to cover 175 to breakeven so you lay 350 @ -200. Bills win. Your cost is 175+350=525. So you're at 525 to win 2500.
Next... KC won, so the Bills go to KC. Being the AFC Championship game, after 2 convincing Bills playoff wins, how high do you really think that line will be? -250 ? Probably more like -200 again. So you lay 1050 to win the 525. Bills lose. You breakeven. Bills win, you are now at 1575 to win 2500. So you're going into the SB with Bills at +159 for the game if you paid to cover ALL STEPS along the way, and paid -200 at both Div and AFC championship. The opportunity is that 1) These odds could be cheaper to hedge, 2) You have the option to only partially hedge because your initial capital commitment is so low at +2500, and 3) You might just leave the first WC game unhedged. Via these methodologies, you may be going into SB with Bills at +500 or more.

[Snowball]

This thread isn't only about the Bills, though. I'm looking over the other prospects and running this through.
Saints at 14/1 are sticking out. This is because if they win Sunday, they capture 2 Seed, and if GB loses to Chicago, the Saints have the 1 Seed. Miami and Chicago at 66/1 each are interesting. KC and TB are too expensive.
GB at 12/1 has more value if they win in Chicago, obviously.

[navyblue81]

If the Packers get home field, I’d jump on them. No one is winning up there in those conditions. They have massive edge there.

Buffalo could give KC a really tough time, I agree. I know they lost to them earlier this year, but they’re a much improved team since then.

[Easy-Rider 66]

This thread isn't only about the Bills, though. I'm looking over the other prospects and running this through.
Saints at 14/1 are sticking out. This is because if they win Sunday, they capture 2 Seed, and if GB loses to Chicago, the Saints have the 1 Seed. Miami and Chicago at 66/1 each are interesting. KC and TB are too expensive.
GB at 12/1 has more value if they win in Chicago, obviously.

MIA and CHI have no shot imo. 66/1 looks nice but it's dead $$$.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I could be wrong no doubt. but no way I play MIA/CHI

[yankees10]

What’s Dallas odds Andy dalton bout to nick foles they asses lol

[Easy-Rider 66]

what’s dallas odds andy dalton bout to nick foles they asses lol

6

dallas cowboys

+15000

6

dallas cowboys

+15000

[Snowball]

MIA and CHI have no shot imo. 66/1 looks nice but it's dead $$$.

Yeah, so far I only took Bills and Saints.

[The J-Dizzle]

Where do you get Bills at +2500? At Bet365 they are at 10.0 odds (+1000). I think there's some value to them and the Packers because of their home field advantage. The colder, the better.

[sackdud]

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — With the season winding down, fans are wound up for the NFL playoffs with the Buffalo Bills definitely in the picture.

But can we expect to see Bills fans in the stands?

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz says the state, the county, and the Bills are still talking about it.

"I originally said on behalf of the county we felt we could get 7,000 people, which is about ten percent of the capacity, in safely. We were concerned about tailgating and that's why the Bills in their proposal agreed to not allow tailgating, basically you come in and just go into the stadium," said Poloncarz.

[Snowball]

Where do you get Bills at +2500? At Bet365 they are at 10.0 odds (+1000). I think there's some value to them and the Packers because of their home field advantage. The colder, the better.

yeah, just sbr at those odds
1000 point win limit

i was waiting for playoffs to take anything on others, so didn't look.

[champlain]

Where do you get Bills at +2500? At Bet365 they are at 10.0 odds (+1000). I think there's some value to them and the Packers because of their home field advantage. The colder, the better.

Those are the odds before the season. No book will offer bills at +2500 today, that’s ridiculous.

[Snowball]

Those are the odds before the season. No book will offer bills at +2500 today, that’s ridiculous.

there is a "book" where you can still get Bills as of right now at 25/1.

I'm not going to say where. You figure it out.

[BIGDAY]

Rams, they have a decent defense. But offense is suspect.