Myrtle Beach Bowl!!! North Texas and Appalachian State

**jjgold** · 12-21-20, 09:09 AM

Archie you have a gambling problem

What does your model say?

**d2bets** · 12-21-20, 09:11 AM

App St by a million

Or 49-7

**Chi_archie** · 12-21-20, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Archie you have a gambling problem

What does your model say?

I didn't scrap any data for conference usa or sunbelt this year. So i'm just taking North Texas based on 5 minutes of capping

**jjgold** · 12-21-20, 09:45 AM

Might tail

**carolinakid** · 12-21-20, 09:47 AM

the over is the play in this one, plus the weather in conway will be great too.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 10:04 AM

My go to source when I really don't know much about mid-conferences and such is Jeff Sagarin.
Sagarin has App. St. by 21 (20.93) and a total of 67 (67.34)

Account Suspended

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Sagarin and the books are pretty much in agreement.

Massey says App. St. too.

College {Football|Basketball|Baseball} Ranking Composite

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

After spending ten minutes looking over this game I think the over is probably the way to go.
Don't take my word for it though, I need more than ten minutes to break down this game and I have more important things going on to do.

If I'm home at 1:00 pm I may put 10, nor more than 20 dollars on the over just for shits and giggles.

But no more than a sawbuck or two as I have no idea as to which team really wants to play in this clusterfuck of a game.

**Mike Huntertz** · 12-21-20, 10:09 AM

I always use Sagarin and Massey for bowl games. It amazes me how far the rankings are off sometimes.
Might take App 1st half and over.
Looking forward to your your picks this season steve.
GL

**d2bets** · 12-21-20, 10:18 AM

Over was decent at 65. It's 67.5 now and probably headed to 68.5 or 69. I'd go under 69.5 or better. I don't think N Texas adds much to point total.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

I always use Sagarin and Massey for bowl games. It amazes me how far the rankings are off sometimes.
Looking forward to your your picks this season steve.
GL

Sagarin has always done me well in the past.

Same with the Dunkel Index, Jim Dunkel and his family has been doing this for almost 100 years (1929)

Can you imagine trying to handicap a Washington Senator/New York Yankee baseball game say in 1934?
"Hey Grandpa, did the newspaper come yet"

My dad used to look at the Dunkel Index (ratings) back in the 70's in the Newark Star Ledger.
This was what? 20 years before anybody had access to any computer unless you worked for NORAD.

I know Sagarin has an advanced degree in math from MIT
Dunkel has math degrees too I just don't remember where from.

Thank you for the kind words, good luck to you as well.

**Mike Huntertz** · 12-21-20, 04:44 PM

I got the 1st half -11.5, need 67 to win total.
See you'all tomorrow we've got a pair more.

**clockwise1965** · 12-21-20, 05:09 PM

North Texas is really bad.

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-21-20, 05:13 PM

My under is done.

**Wrongside** · 12-21-20, 05:14 PM

Quite a swing. Turnover negated due to penalty, injury, next play TD.

**QuantumLeap** · 12-21-20, 05:29 PM

Refs trying to keep this under or else closer than 21. Called a person foul on a linemen for "continuing to block out of bounds" on a long TD run by App State. Now they call the guy out of bounds on the 1 yard line on another long run.

I would hate to have the over 14 for the 3rd quarter.

Edit: there's the over.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

My under is done.

Sorry to hear that.
I had a minimal wager on the over myself.

Get it back tonight amigo.

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-21-20, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Sorry to hear that.
I had a minimal wager on the over myself.

Get it back tonight amigo.

I’m a terrible handicapper these days. The good news is I’m betting one less zero now.

**Wrongside** · 12-21-20, 05:37 PM

This is the degenerate of all degenerate games. Terrible announcers, stunted action, one heavily outmatched team (to the tune of not being able to stop one running play...this a first)..a ton of injuries. North Texas has had like a million injuries and gave up 30 minutes ago, litrally.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Wrongside

This is the degenerate of all degenerate games. Terrible announcers, stunted action, one heavily outmatched team (to the tune of not being able to stop one running play...this a first)..a ton of injuries. North Texas has had like a million injuries and gave up 30 minutes ago, litrally.

I am the furthest thing from a misogynist, I believe some women can do an excellent job in the booth, Doris Burke comes to mind.
She knows what she's talking about, she was all Big East at Providence, I can listen to her for a game, but this woman in the booth is just God awful, not only that her voice is more annoying than Erin Andrews.

And Eric Wood is like Sominex, he makes Jim Nantz sound exciting.

**Wrongside** · 12-21-20, 05:48 PM

Absolutely horrible

**MarkMakers** · 12-21-20, 05:52 PM

I had a little action on this game just to hold me over until tonight’s matchup. Glad I stayed away from the over/under.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 05:55 PM

It's easy to run for 300 yards and 5 TD's when the defense tackles like Ray Charles.
Clearly North Texas doesn't want to be there.

**QuantumLeap** · 12-21-20, 06:11 PM

I thought the backdoor would hit here. App State up by 28 with just over a minute to go and they get a stop on 4th down. This is why I bet these sh!t bowl games.

Edit: my heart skipped a beat when the QB was in the shotgun formation and fumbled the ball with 10 seconds left. Luckily he fell on the ball but who in the fukk lines up in the shotgun formation instead of under the center for the Victory Formation at the end of the game? I guess if you're up by 28 it doesn't really matter.

**stevenash** · 12-21-20, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

I thought the backdoor would hit here. App State up by 28 with just over a minute to go and they get a stop on 4th down. This is why I bet these sh!t bowl games.

You're safe.