I’ve got a parlay with one leg left (Notre Dame). The payouts $25k+ which is large to me. I’m planning to let it ride but may hedge in game. ND ML is obviously a long shot right now so there may be an opportunity to hedge @ good value. Was curious if there’s any insight/advice with the situation. I would assume the book would be indifferent to someone hedging. Also was curious if there are any models/info on how live lines react with various scenarios (pregame odds, score & time remaining, etc). Any info/help would be appreciated!
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to be clear, ND ML is your final leg?
what was the risk amt on the parlay?
we can go from thereComment -
$1.5k. Two spread bets & two heavy ML favs cashed. Right now it’s basically $7.5k on ND +270Comment -
you only got +270 on ND?.. when was this booked?Comment -
Sunday AM. Better odds offered at the time at other books on ND but my book had better odds on a few of the other games. Net difference was $200 on payout if I had used MGM @ +310Comment -
IMO your financial situation in real life should dictate what your next move is.
If you got tons of money then just let it ride out.. it’s only a small bet.. enjoy the action.
If on the other hand you are close to broke or low on money then yes you must lock up something because right now you are staring down a shot gun with 0 return...and you need to at least get apiece of that 25k very badly in your real life...
Its great that you arrived to this point make it worth something.
Many would disagree with this and say there is a right way and a wrong way regardless of your financial situation.Comment -
the cheapest Clemson ML out there right now is -350 and thus no real hedge opportunity pre-game
the only way you could truly hedge some of this is if the Clemson ML ever got close to -110 or better (i.e. preferably + odds) in live betting during the game
but for that opportunity to even arrive for you, that would mean ND would have to lead by around 14 pts at some point during the game
and even if that does happen, will you then have the conviction (and funds available most importantly) to bet, for example, $12.5K into a live Clemson ML price when they're down 14 pts when your entire premise of making the parlay from the beginning is your belief that ND's going to win this game? a substantial portion of the backbone of your entire parlay is built around the ND +270 price
the bottom line here is that you don't really have much equity earned in this parlay so far. sure, you've hit a couple -110 spreads and then a couple large ML favorites, but those 4 winning outcomes really haven't done THAT much for you to this point on a $1.5K risk to profit $25K+
think of it this way, you essentially put down $1.5K on this wager at about 17-1 odds.. i.e. low risk, high reward.. so it is what it is. in order for you to truly be able to extract a nice bit of that potential $25K payout, it would require Clemson to get in a large enough hole during the game where the live odds could then begin working for you
and as i said before, mentally speaking, the last thing you'd probably want to do at that point is plunk down a large sum against ND to lose their lead and the game. you would likely just decide at that point to let it ride on ND which would be the right call..Comment -
thanks for the points Money. let me ask you this - will you at least have some substantial funds ready and available to hedge if the opportunity presents itself in live betting? and are you certain that all the books you use have large enough limits on such a live wager?
let's just say, for example, your goal heading into the game is to ideally extract at least $10K out of that potential $25K payout. and now let's say ND is up a couple scores during the game and the Clemson live ML price becomes +100. will you be prepared to act immediately and be properly funded to wager $10K on the live ML, even if it includes you having to spread that $10K out among different books?
(in the above example, you would either lock in $15K of profit if ND wins or $10K profit if Clemson wins, but again, ND would first need to have a nice lead at some point during the game for such a potential +100 price on the Clemson ML to become available to you)Comment -
I will have the funds available to hedge. You bring up a good point that I need to look into. I was planning to go to a B&M in WV but I need to check their live wager limits. I will check into this. With that said, it may make more sense to spread $ over multiple online books. This would also give me the opportunity to act quick versus trying to get a $10k bet in person & waiting at counter.Comment -
you can bet on the spread and live bet the spread and maybe then hit both if notre dame pulls a winComment -
IMO the lesson from this should be that if you can't handle sweating the last leg of your parlay then you shouldn't be betting parlays like this in the first place.
GL to you whatever you choose to do.Comment -
This is the reason why you don't put dog ML on the last leg of your parlay. Tell me, wouldn't you rather have Clemson ML right about now? You would have more hedging optionsComment -
This hedge is hard because Clemson a high ML fav. What you might want to consider is to bet Clemson ML in 1st quarter @ -200,for the amount of original bet and go from there. If some point in game,Clemson at even or + $........bet them for about 30 % of total payout and don't look back !....................................... ....................bolComment -
where was the parlay bet?
if at a b&m, dont they withhold some for taxes on a win this size?
if so, you gotta calculate that into the hedge too
Ofcourse you can show losses later, but i thought they withheld like 25%, do they not?Comment -
Notre Dame went up 10-0 before Clemson scored in the last game, albeit was without Lawrence. If they get the first possession, there's still a good chance they can jump out to an early lead and you have better hedge options with a live clemson. More of a risk waiting, but better odds. Good luck!Comment -
Another possibility...if Clem has a big lead at half,they could be a dog in the 2nd half...and then you will have your hedge !!
Forget this idea..it is messy and your risk will be too high !!Comment -
yes, go to B&M counter sometime before Sat and ask all about their on-site live wagering options and limits. make sure you get all the info you need and are comfortable before leaving
and then live chat with all your funded offshore books and make sure of their respective limits. the most important thing here is to be prepared so if the hedge opportunity does present itself, you can act in a controlled manner and just execute your planComment -
25k is large to everyone. Hahahha. BolComment
