I just made a calculator messing with some simple math using a Google Spreadsheet and some simple formulas that my dumb brain could slowly start to calculate and the results were more alarming than I ever thought possible (not to be dramatic). But seriously.
Using European odds and no juice/no vig, betting a 1.08 favorite or a 13.5 underdog, the difference is 156.25x more risk to bet the favorite!
I thought this one was super interesting. When betting a 1.7 favorite, underdog should be 2.428 without juice and you actually are risking TWO TIMES AS MUCH to win the same amount with a 1.7 favorite.
I could keep going with examples but to me, the last example tells me two things:
1. A 1.7 favorite is a much larger favorite than I previously thought (You would have to bet 2x the risk to get the same profit as the underdog without juice)
2. Underdogs are grossly undervalued by recreational bettors as well as long-time gamblers. A 1.25 favorite vs. a 5.0 underdog is actually a 16x difference in risk to win the same amount!
What I took from this: if I can find a winning 5.0 dog for $25, or a winning 1.25 favorite for $400, it's the same winning amount. The catch is I have 5x to get my 5.0 dog correct to break even. One single mis-step with a 1.25 favorite loses me 16 chances at a 5.0 dog.
My math is surprisingly college dropout level if that, I hardly made it through high school but let me know if I made a mistake and if you found this helpful or interesting.
I'll drop a harmless google spreadsheet calculator link here as well for you guys if you want soon. Just change the first column and everything else follows (Favorite column) So anything from 1.01 to 1.99 and see why it's so much better to just wait for the perfect underdog in most scenarios. And also see why betting a favorite can actually be UNDERVALUED when you think about it, since really a favorite moneyline is actually much much more thin than you might think according to the simple calculator/maths I'm employing.
Here are the formulas if you'd like to learn to make cool calculators in google sheets and mess around with it yourself! Remember all you need to do is change the first column, then all the rest will tell you how awful it is to parlay favorites at times. You really don't need to lose very often to lose a LOT in the long run. But you can be wrong most of the time and still wind up profitable as an underdog bettor!
Final note: when you think about it, a 1.08 favorite should be a 1 in 12.5 favorite. But looking at this math, using my simple stupid logic, I am starting to think of it more like a 156.25x favorite. Because you'd have to risk that much more in order to win the same amount (without juice!)!!
Begging you to correct me if I am at all out of line with some of this thinking.
Feel Free to copy paste the spreadsheet into your own spreadsheet so that you can use the calculator for yourself. Remember just change the favorite column (A column, first column) and the rest will follow.
Leave me some points or drop a comment if you found this useful or interesting!
Using European odds and no juice/no vig, betting a 1.08 favorite or a 13.5 underdog, the difference is 156.25x more risk to bet the favorite!
I thought this one was super interesting. When betting a 1.7 favorite, underdog should be 2.428 without juice and you actually are risking TWO TIMES AS MUCH to win the same amount with a 1.7 favorite.
I could keep going with examples but to me, the last example tells me two things:
1. A 1.7 favorite is a much larger favorite than I previously thought (You would have to bet 2x the risk to get the same profit as the underdog without juice)
2. Underdogs are grossly undervalued by recreational bettors as well as long-time gamblers. A 1.25 favorite vs. a 5.0 underdog is actually a 16x difference in risk to win the same amount!
What I took from this: if I can find a winning 5.0 dog for $25, or a winning 1.25 favorite for $400, it's the same winning amount. The catch is I have 5x to get my 5.0 dog correct to break even. One single mis-step with a 1.25 favorite loses me 16 chances at a 5.0 dog.
My math is surprisingly college dropout level if that, I hardly made it through high school but let me know if I made a mistake and if you found this helpful or interesting.
I'll drop a harmless google spreadsheet calculator link here as well for you guys if you want soon. Just change the first column and everything else follows (Favorite column) So anything from 1.01 to 1.99 and see why it's so much better to just wait for the perfect underdog in most scenarios. And also see why betting a favorite can actually be UNDERVALUED when you think about it, since really a favorite moneyline is actually much much more thin than you might think according to the simple calculator/maths I'm employing.
Here are the formulas if you'd like to learn to make cool calculators in google sheets and mess around with it yourself! Remember all you need to do is change the first column, then all the rest will tell you how awful it is to parlay favorites at times. You really don't need to lose very often to lose a LOT in the long run. But you can be wrong most of the time and still wind up profitable as an underdog bettor!
Final note: when you think about it, a 1.08 favorite should be a 1 in 12.5 favorite. But looking at this math, using my simple stupid logic, I am starting to think of it more like a 156.25x favorite. Because you'd have to risk that much more in order to win the same amount (without juice!)!!
Begging you to correct me if I am at all out of line with some of this thinking.
Feel Free to copy paste the spreadsheet into your own spreadsheet so that you can use the calculator for yourself. Remember just change the favorite column (A column, first column) and the rest will follow.
Leave me some points or drop a comment if you found this useful or interesting!
be easy on me numbers guys, i'm just a lil square
Sure, link me. It's still a useful exercise to be able to create these simple calculators. I even made a hedging calculator that I can share soon, which I'm sure SBR has one of their own but I like mine still.
