Phils/Braves ......Phils -109.......to low???
Believe this may move to -120, but could be wrong.
Having said that, the Braves are playing good baseball these days.
Having said that, the Braves are playing good baseball these days.
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I just believe the majority of the general public will be wagering the Phils in this spot..........and an even share of wiseguys.Comment -
I think the line is about right....Braves have been playing damn good baseball and Kawakami is coming off a stellar start which might get him rolling. On the flip side Hamels has been very pedestrian all year long. Everyone keeps waiting for him to step up his game and thus far he just hasn't done it.Comment -
I grabbed a bunch at -107 hoping to scalp later.Comment -
Braves don't lose as dogs at home.Comment -
Playing wellOriginally posted by pavyracerComment -
I did this religiously for 6 weeks earlier this baseball season and did nothing else. I found quite a bit of sucess at one point but then eventually moved on to just playing one side as I felt my soft line was winning way more and I have actually had a great baseball season ever since, who knows?
The thing I am most proud of was I never made a real mistake doing this daily, one where I placed a wrong bet, etc... I must of checked some games 5 times a day. I had a routine down and made sure to go through even though I felt at times it was so monotous. Did this right up till every game time it seemed. It's not hard if all your plays are in at MB cause they cancel everything out nice and neat for you but I did stuff at other books and that when things would get scary. Obviouosly you know this but that is the #1 thing, don't screw up a bet EVER by playing someone twice, forget about making a play, etc...One mistake can wipe out months worth of profits or more (or double them, LOL).
Something I noticed was what I called the opposite effect. Meaning it seems a lot of times (not always) the number moves a bit with the team that loses last night in a series, creating sort of a up/down theory. Have you noticed this? Meaning a team like the Braves because they lost last night will get the some betting support today, more then they would say if they won. I agree with you here though with Hamels being an ace type (though he has sucked this year), will have public perception probably with him.
A few quick other things I noticed is you can learn a lot from game 1's betting patterns. Must have something to do with the programmers, modelers, syndicaters, etc... Meaning if a team gets hit really hard betting wise the day before, it seems something must have given them a big edge in this matchup that the program/model usually spits the same team out again and feels the price is off. Keep your eye on the big movers in game 1, they likely will get hit again in game 2's, more times then not until the linesmaker makes the needed adjustments.
Game 3 in sweep's games, as long as the team whose down 0-2 isn't awful or in an extended losing streak, the sweep players will usually it seems play them heavy. A few Sundays back was the biggest one I had ever seen as most teams down 0-2 got bet very hard, sometimes to the point it was getting ridicouls (and most lost, LOL). You can make a nice killing on these the night before if things start to look like they are lining up right for you.
Obviously you know this but the best times I noticed volitality wise is the 9-noon EST time daily for activity, steam, etc... It seem there isn't much if any steam after this time and that most lines will just continue to move in the same direction right up till gametime.
I found my best success taking shots with openers believe it or not. Even a place like Bookmaker (though you can only get $1,500 down at open) will be sleeping when pinny shows up 3 hours later or so and you can usually catch a little head start on a number there. They do use a 20 cent line but sometimes they will be off a nickel or dime.
It seems bettors love young pitchers with tons of promise. Like one that is 1-0 and went 7 innings and gave up 1 run in his debut or something like that. High upside creates big line moves si something I noticed. May be to late in the year for this but I seen it like crazy with rookies off to good starts who were given too much credit by the bettors.
People play streaks also. Anything 5+ games or more or so, seems the public expects the teams streak to "stay alive" whatever the streak is and lines moves in the direction of the streak. Lots of times though the linesmaker knows this. If streak is broken the night before sometimes you can then go to the overnights and play against this team for tomorrow becuase the orginal was placed with the streak intact, now that it's gone the betting will stop.
I felt though you may get burned doing this, it's smart to get out of a play early if it starts moving against you in the morning, steams, etc... I think playing a little defense is smart. Avoiding big losses is what one needs to do every bit as much as trying to hit homeruns. Just like in the stock market. Cut your losses and let your winners run, same exact thing.
That all I can think of right now off the top of my head. I have more stuff written down. Take it for what it is worth. I will add more later as I remember them. Too bad I wasn't still doing this, I was really into it and we could have compared notes and probably did even better.
Good luck and keep us posted, very interesting!!Comment -
The lines have moved against Kawakami almost all year. They always move early against him as well. For some reason it didn't work that way today. I'm don't know why. I have the fair line at +/- 115. But haven't made a play on anything yet.Comment -
Originally posted by element1286
Good info, did not know this.
Thanks,
FHComment -
Originally posted by element1286
I sort of noticed something like this myself. I have a personal observation of the Braves I made months ago and felt pretty strong about it when I was scalping. They seem to be a team the public loves to bet on.
Atlanta gets bet heavy it seems most of the time because of how very strong their starting pitching is. It is the clearly the best in the game in my opinion. Game after game it seems they have a pretty big edge in the starting pitching department with Jurrjens, Vazquez, Lowe and now Hanson whom bettors really LOVE (the rookie with huge upside, no line is high enough for him it seems).
Because of how much value the betting market places on starting pitching, the bettors it would seem to me would line up to back the Braves quite a bit. I know at one time this year they were down as a team a ton of units overall. I think it's obviously because their strong pitching was almost a big negative when betting them becuase of how much of tax one pays on for having the much better starter. Recently their bats have gotten hot and they have got closer to breakeven in the unit department. Even though they are 5 games over .500 you would be down playing them blindly, only TB is worse then them.
On a side note, I think the Braves are a very dangerous team if they make the playoffs in a short series.
Anyways I noticed the same thing, that Kawakami, who is clealy the Braves worst starter, seems to catch a little bit of the backlash for being considered the Braves worst starter. The public just doesn't like to back him like they do the others, while in reality he is a very solid #5.
I do feel strongly though that some of the resistence in this game in the betting line is coming from the fact that the Braves lost last night's game. As dumb as this may sound, keep your eye on it.
Plus this is my favorite play of the day also, the Braves to win today (LOL).Comment -
Kawakami is the SP I hate to see the most as a Braves fan.Comment -
Originally posted by fishhead
betjamaica
08/14 23:09 -109 / -101
08/14 23:59 -113 / +103
08/15 08:43 -111 / +101
08/15 09:03 -112 / +102
08/15 09:10 -113 / +103
08/15 09:48 -115 / +105
08/15 11:28 -114 / +104
08/15 13:18 -115 / +105
08/15 13:19 -116 / +106
08/15 15:06 -117 / +107
08/15 15:06 -119 / +109Comment -
hopefully it keeps going in your direction FHComment -
FH, whats the min cents you'll take, 6c?Comment -
5DIMES just went to -122Originally posted by fsugolfComment -
probably going to get a nice scalp!
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BetPhoenix says MAKE THE PHILS -123!Comment
