2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[King Mayan]

Bitch ass Canadian Dwight can’t even vote for Mr. Bone spurs and look at his avatar what a dumbfukk

[DwightShrute]

Bitch ass Canadian Dwight can’t even vote for Mr. Bone spurs and look at his avatar what a dumbfukk

All these years later you are still triggered by the littlest things huh homie?

[vitterd]

"I won’t be able to give you all the vitterd attention you crave for a week. I’m going to a place with people that you trumptards couldn’t near or afford. I will still be here so you guys don’t jump off a bridge but I won’t pull a Bacon and have my internet taken away while strapped to a bed." - vitterd

I leave in the morning. You want my schedule? You are a foreign loser.

[DwightShrute]

I leave in the morning. You want my schedule? You are a foreign loser.

I hope you get the treatment you desperately need.

[vitterd]

I hope you get the treatment you desperately need.

You need a friend

[peacebyinches]

You need to seek different news sources, son. The onus is on you as to why your "sources" were so wrong last time and why they won't be again --- Silver still uses polling that's not accurate, that's why he comes up with loser predictions. The same environment that led to reliable polling in some way (beyond the desire for the media to lie to try to swing votes) is no longer the case in the USA. Trump proved that last time.

Biden doesn't even have a 25% chance. He's got a 10% chance, and only because the election isn't today. So yes it can get better, but it can also get worse for him. And it's about to next Tuesday. The fair odds are Trump -1000.

This is hilarious in so many ways. First, please provide your news source that in any way backs up your statement. If your response does not include this in the first line, I am not even going to bother reading the rest of your reply.

If you made it past step 1, here is step 2: ask yourself, how reliable and valid is this source? Fivethirtyeight uses more polls than you can count, weighted according to a variety of historical metrics, sample size, quality, etc... I don't think you understand Nate's methodology and definitely don't understand Bayesian statistics, so trust me, if you think Trump is a lock, you are at the very least going to be sweating for the next few months and more than likely extremely disappointed.

If you made it to this point, the final step: pics of your actual wager. At -1000 projected odds, you would be an absolute fool to bet anything less than every book's maximum at the line they have it at now.

[RudyRuetigger]

This is hilarious in so many ways. First, please provide your news source that in any way backs up your statement. If your response does not include this in the first line, I am not even going to bother reading the rest of your reply.

If you made it past step 1, here is step 2: ask yourself, how reliable and valid is this source? Fivethirtyeight uses more polls than you can count, weighted according to a variety of historical metrics, sample size, quality, etc... I don't think you understand Nate's methodology and definitely don't understand Bayesian statistics, so trust me, if you think Trump is a lock, you are at the very least going to be sweating for the next few months and more than likely extremely disappointed.

If you made it to this point, the final step: pics of your actual wager. At -1000 projected odds, you would be an absolute fool to bet anything less than every book's maximum at the line they have it at now.

Democrat?

[RudyRuetigger]

Atta boy Rudy. I only wish I would have listened to your great wisdom.

I deposited $500 in 5Dimes ONCE back in 2009. I've withdrawn at least 50K from them since then. And now your moment of glory is that I had $500 worth of bets cancelled and refunded to me.

You win again!!

post some sports plays for us

[ace7550]

Bookmaker has some interesting props for the debate:

US DEBATE PROPS - SEP 25


WILL THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJI) CLOSE HIGHER OR LOWER THAN ITS OPENING PRICE AT THE END OF THE BUSINESS DAY 4PM EST ON 9/30/20 (ACCORDING TO MARKETWATCH.COM)?
Higher
Lower
-114
-110


WILL THE TV VIEWERS FOR THE FIRST TRUMP/BIDEN DEBATE BE HIGHER THAN THE FIRST TRUMP/CLINTON DEBATE (ACCORDING TO NIELSEN - 84 MILLION VIEWERS)?
Yes
No
-168
+141


WILL A TWEET BE PUBLISHED ON THE OFFICIAL TWITTER ACCOUNT OF PRESIDENT TRUMP (@REALDONALDTRUMP) DURING THE LIVE BROADCAST OF THE FIRST US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE OF 2020?
Yes
No
+286
-366


AFTER THE DEBATE LIVE BROADCAST ENDS, WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP TWEET OR RETWEET A REFERENCE TO THE DEBATE’S "RATINGS" BEFORE 11:59PM ET ON 9/30/2020
Yes
No
+257
-323


WILL JOE BIDEN REFER TO PRESIDENT TRUMP AS "DONALD" OR "DON" ONLY, AND NOT IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIS TITLE "PRESIDENT", DURING THE DEBATE?
Yes
No
+269
-340


WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP MENTION HIS NOMINATION FOR THE "NOBEL" PEACE PRIZE DURING THE DEBATE?
Yes
No
+230
-287


WILL JOE BIDEN AND PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKE PHYSICAL CONTACT DURING THE LIVE BROADCAST OF THE DEBATE?
Yes
No
+277
-352


WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP BE SEEN ON CAMERA DRINKING WATER DURING THE DEBATE?
Yes
No
-269
+218


WILL BIDEN ENTER THE STAGE WEARING A MASK? - PRESEDENTIAL DEBATE SEPT. 29TH
Yes
No
-376
+294


WILL TRUMP ENTER THE STAGE WEARING A MASK? - PRESEDENTIAL DEBATE SEPT. 29TH
Yes
No
+1096
-3396

[JohnGalt2341]

Thanks for posting those Ace. They are Interesting indeed.

The Line I am waiting for and I think at least one sportsbook will have a price for is:

"Will Trump accept the results of the election if he loses?"

If I can get a plus number on that I will bet the max on NO for sure.

[RudyRuetigger]

Thanks for posting those Ace. They are Interesting indeed.

The Line I am waiting for and I think at least one sportsbook will have a price for is:

"Will Trump accept the results of the election if he loses?"

If I can get a plus number on that I will bet the max on NO for sure.

Start a thread and post picks








Hillary already told Biden not to concede NO MATTER WHAT

[RudyRuetigger]

Yes +257 on Trump commenting on ratings?


When will ratings be looked at, surely the next day?


I could still see him saying something about it

[RudyRuetigger]

I say this wont be higher than trump/hillary at +141

[ace7550]

Thanks for posting those Ace. They are Interesting indeed.

The Line I am waiting for and I think at least one sportsbook will have a price for is:

"Will Trump accept the results of the election if he loses?"

If I can get a plus number on that I will bet the max on NO for sure.

Seems like a tough bet to grade. At what point does it get graded and how?

[ace7550]

I say this wont be higher than trump/hillary at +141

I'm torn on this one because there are so many people still "sheltering in place" with nothing else to do. I think a lot of people want to see how Biden does.
Do you think Biden will wear a mask?

[RudyRuetigger]

I'm torn on this one because there are so many people still "sheltering in place" with nothing else to do. I think a lot of people want to see how Biden does.
Do you think Biden will wear a mask?

good point with that sheltering in place, thats gotta be why it is +141


I personally think he might wear a mask against any other person... but Trump would be the only person to call him out on it....."no contact with anyone, anywhere...why the mask joe?"

The fact the media keeps bringing up 200k deaths, I dont think trump could call him out so id lean yes mask in my political thinking, but realistically ill say no

But it would be funny if trump laid out the facts of what happens (happened) when both of them arrived

[StackinGreen]

If you made it to this point, the final step: pics of your actual wager. At -1000 projected odds, you would be an absolute fool to bet anything less than every book's maximum at the line they have it at now.

And that's what I'm doing. I did this last time and hit states with some of the easiest money ever. There is so much historical aberration and emotion in these lines it is crazy. You still haven't figured out what I knew then, and know now, and for some reason you still think history is more important than what really went on in 2016 - and what continues currently. If you trust the polls that you state and Silver uses, you are a fool. And you were a fool last time, but for some reason you refuse to admit it. I'll win more money and you'll still bet air. Maybe that's why you didn't learn, you didn't actually do anything but post wrong predictions last time, too. Not actually bet or have skin in the game.

[Stringer Bell]

I'm torn on this one because there are so many people still "sheltering in place" with nothing else to do. I think a lot of people want to see how Biden does.
Do you think Biden will wear a mask?

I kind of think this one definitely does bigger numbers than the Hilary debate. Country is so much more feverishly enamored with politics now. And so many people curious just to see how old ass Biden performs.

[JohnGalt2341]

Seems like a tough bet to grade. At what point does it get graded and how?

Great point and I was wondering how exactly they would do it as well. Maybe no Books will have a price on this because of the reason you stated. But I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't at least one Book that had a price on this. I suspect that the closer we get to election day the more people will be talking about this one way or the other. To me it just seems likely that at least one Book will figure a way to post a Line on it and grade it, regardless of whether it wins or loses. I expect a line for this to come out at some point in late October.

[trytrytry]

no

WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP MENTION HIS NOMINATION FOR THE "NOBEL" PEACE PRIZE DURING THE DEBATE?YesNo+230-287

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump's going to be throwing up Hail Mary's left and right for the next 4 months. I predict that we will be over 200K Covid-19 deaths by the first debate. Trump will declare this a victory and will claim that it would have been in the millions if he wasn't in charge. Even though Trump has done very little in regards to Covid-19. He'll use this tactic several times during the debates. "If Biden was in charge...blah blah blah it would be really bad... blah blah blah...Sleepy Joe...blah blah blah". His supporters will eat it up and say Trump "BURIED!" Biden last night.

Trump's only chance right now is if Biden has several gaffe's that are even worse than all of his previous gaffe's. Even then... I think Trump is going to need a lot of help. These debates are going to be sad, really sad. Other countries will wonder "Is this REALLY their top 2? I've never seen anything so pathetic."

It's pretty sad when our presidency is going to be decided on which candidate looks less like a fool.

The post above was posted in June. Is anyone surprised? If your answer is YES I suspect that you didn't do your homework.

[vitterd]

The post above was posted in June. Is anyone surprised? If your answer is YES I suspect that you didn't do your homework.

Well done. A report just came out that he’s had over 3,400 conflicts of interest and Trump Organizations have made 23 million dollars from the federal govt while he’s been president. This has been this biggest con in American history.

[RudyRuetigger]

The post above was posted in June. Is anyone surprised? If your answer is YES I suspect that you didn't do your homework.

this guy wants to quote past posts


when i quote mine relating to him, he brings up meaningless stats



GALT YOU ARE A GODDAMN PROFESSOR ARENT YOU?

[RudyRuetigger]

this guy wants to quote past posts


when i quote mine relating to him, he brings up meaningless stats



GALT YOU ARE A GODDAMN PROFESSOR ARENT YOU?

This thread took off because RudyRuetigger (me) said dont do that shit


This thread was bumped by RudyRuetigger (me) saying I told you so


Somehow JohnGalt wants to talk about what he said in June



Just a pure piece of shit

[JohnGalt2341]

This thread took off because RudyRuetigger (me) said dont do that shit


This thread was bumped by RudyRuetigger (me) saying I told you so


Somehow JohnGalt wants to talk about what he said in June



Just a pure piece of shit

You're hilarious Rudy, you really are. I'll give you full credit for every single post in this thread if you want it. The reason why this thread is 11 pages long is 100% you. You can have all the credit if you want it. And let's not forget that futures were cancelled at 5Dimes. You want SBR to give you a fukking medal for this.

In post #371 I bumped my own post from June to illustrate that this shit isn't hard to figure out. Anyone with a half of a brain could have predicted this. It wasn't some far-fetched prediction that nobody could have predicted ahead of time.

It happened exactly as I predicted it because I based it on past behaviors of Trump, Covid-19, and the American people. Trump makes wrong prediction after wrong prediction when it comes to Covid-19(among other things) and yet for some reason people still trust him without question. That's a lot of FAITH right there.

When Trump predicted that there would be 50K to 60K total deaths when this was all over with and I predicted there would be over 200K deaths before the first debate... his cult followers would criticize me for being doom and gloom even though I was right. And they will praise Trump for being optimistic(some people call this lying) even though he was WAY OFF.

If Trump and myself both made a prediction today that were completely opposite of each other... who do you think would likely be correct... Me or Trump? I know your answer is Trump. Do you see the problem here? The only people that still trust Trump with his lousy predictions are even dumber than the people that tail your picks.

[RudyRuetigger]

You're hilarious Rudy, you really are. I'll give you full credit for every single post in this thread if you want it. The reason why this thread is 11 pages long is 100% you. You can have all the credit if you want it. And let's not forget that futures were cancelled at 5Dimes. You want SBR to give you a fukking medal for this.

Actually i called many others, including betislands (the first), and betdsi


let me read on

[RudyRuetigger]

When Trump predicted that there would be 50K to 60K total deaths when this was all over with and I predicted there would be over 200K deaths before election time

what evidence are you privy to that the president is not?

i have my own via offshore books, so i wonder what evidence you have to claim to know it all via corona?

THANKS

[JohnGalt2341]

what evidence are you privy to that the president is not?

i have my own via offshore books, so i wonder what evidence you have to claim to know it all via corona?

THANKS

NONE. That's my point.

[Thor4140]

This would be a good wager. How many times will Trump lie? over under 200. How many of them will his dumb as a rock base believe? over and under 200.

[Thor4140]

Galt Rudy is the biggest pussy in here. The guy is a serious attention whore. You know how many times he has threaten to leave the site and never left? 50 would be a nice number to set for the over and under.

[beerman2619]

Galt Rudy is the biggest pussy in here. The guy is a serious attention whore. You know how many times he has threaten to leave the site and never left? 50 would be a nice number to set for the over and under.

Stfu liberal biotch, Keyboard warrior trying to talk $hit .

[RoyBacon]

Stfu liberal biotch, Keyboard warrior trying to talk $hit .

Trump is gaining; +109

[JohnGalt2341]

Well, it's pretty obvious to me why the Wisconsin line has moved so much recently. This will be interesting to see if it keeps moving in September or if it moves back some.

Nearly a month later now. The No Juice is roughly +/-161 or 62% Biden and 38% Trump for Wisconsin right now. It moved back some but not all the way back to where it was.

[The General]

I have this opinion that doc mercer is among us.

[ThaTopMoron]

trump takes Ohio again guaranteed