2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[JohnGalt2341]

which site do you use to judge this?


ofcourse liberal media judges it your way



who do you think will win the debate?


IF IT EVEN HAPPENS

I don't know which site BetOnline uses to grade these but so far I've won all of my bets when I've bet Over on the number of "non-facts" Trump tells. So I'm guessing they are not using a Trump based web-site.

The over line is now Locked at BetOnline. You can only bet on the Under 5.5 "non-facts" now. And that Under price is now at +250 which means the Over is probably at least -350.

I priced Over 5.5 lies at -400 a few hours ago. I got over 5.5 lies at -120. Now the Under is at +250.

[JohnGalt2341]

galt you are the type of teacher to BEG your kids to listen to you for 40 minutes and then give them 20 minutes free time...you consider that a win because that is social engagement etc, which helps them but they could be doing that within your class



you do not need to compromise with those far left clowns LIKE YOU ARE DOING

60minutes of class time, but make it interesting


THANKS

You think I am compromising because I call out Trump on his lies. If more Rep's actually had balls they would do the same. The enemy of your enemy isn't necessarily your friend.

[RudyRuetigger]

You think I am compromising because I call out Trump on his lies. If more Rep's actually had balls they would do the same. The enemy of your enemy isn't necessarily your friend.

it is weird you consider the far right worse than the far left


both are very bad


but only one is now under mob rule

[StackinGreen]

I mostly like to look at it for fun but I'm not putting a lot of faith behind it. Right now it appears that 538 is giving Biden about a 77% chance of winning. That seems rather high if you ask me. I would put it at somewhere between 55% and 65%(max).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?utm_source=digg

As of right now if I was a member of the Biden campaign I would tell them to spend as much time possible trying to win over voters in Pennsylvania. If Biden can win PA it's going to be nearly impossible for Trump to win even if he wins Florida.

I'm hoping 538 gets it right but I'm not holding my breathe on their percentages.

Yes, as you know math, you also know that this is a -335 money line. If that doesn't show you how nutty 538 is, nothing will.

[StackinGreen]

it is weird you consider the far right worse than the far left


both are very bad


but only one is now under mob rule

There's not even such a thing as "far right" anymore. The overton window has changed so much, due to many things including communists and so-called republicans not standing for anything, that "center" is now remarkably leftist. No one even approaching anything remotely considered right or far right even gets a voice on any media that is common to anyone's attention, especially if not looking for it. Meanwhile, active communists are supported and praised throughout the mainstream media, including many who are technically or by party "Democrats" with these same views.

[JohnGalt2341]

More than likely I won't. My feeling right now is.... if you can get +100 or better betting AGAINST Trump then I think it's a good value. My feeling is... in the next 4 months there will be AT LEAST one black swan that is really going to shake things up. I have no idea what the black swan will be but I'm nearly certain that it is coming. So... we'll see what happens when the black swan occurs... the black swan could either help or hurt Trump but as of right now I give Trump about a 45% chance of winning and the books are giving him roughly a 40% chance so... I'll stick with my bets for now. I'm curious to see what happens to the lines after the first debate.

Our black swan has made it's presence. There will likely be others before the election.

[StackinGreen]

Unforeseen sore throat? LOL, like everything covid (as far as reaction goes, fear, etc) it's all psychological. The best part is that you don't see the easy play here = HCQ and Zinc and Trump wins, again.

[Mike Huntertz]

Unforeseen sore throat? LOL, like everything covid (as far as reaction goes, fear, etc) it's all psychological. The best part is that you don't see the easy play here = HCQ and Zinc and Trump wins, again.

His bleach injections start later today.
It's just a flu and will miraculously disappear later today....like magic!
It'll be a wonderful thing.

[StackinGreen]

Yes it will, because overwhelmingly, it does nothing to healthy people. Being overweight doesn't help Mr. Trump but odds are he has a mild flu, indeed.

[vitterd]

Yes it will, because overwhelmingly, it does nothing to healthy people. Being overweight doesn't help Mr. Trump but odds are he has a mild flu, indeed.

You say lots of stupid things.

[JohnGalt2341]

Unforeseen sore throat? LOL, like everything covid (as far as reaction goes, fear, etc) it's all psychological. The best part is that you don't see the easy play here = HCQ and Zinc and Trump wins, again.

So... your theory is that HCQ most definitely cures people and the media knows it but they refuse to admit it for political purposes. Is this correct?

If this is true... we will almost certainly hear from Trump in the weeks to come that he did exactly what you said and it cured him.

Let's forget about Trump and Covid-19 for a second and let me ask you about a different hypothetical situation. Let's say there was a disease that killed 2% of it's victims and the other 98% survived. Let's say a group of 100 people that all had the disease took a special medicine to save their lives. In this group of 100 people, 98 people survived and they all credit this special medicine for saving their life. They swear by it. However, family members of the 2 that died said it didn't work at all.

My question for you is... if 98% of the people survive anyway... how would you know that the medicine is doing anything at all?

[jw]

My bet .. Trump takes first available USA produced vaccine, miracle, cured 3 days later. He is risen.

Its a play out of Putin's book, only Putin declared it was his daughter that took the vaccine.

[King Mayan]

Homos make up conspiracies to explain everything from them sucking rooster to getting pumped by roosters. It must suck to be them.

[The General]

I'm buying 3 cases of toilet paper today. Times are scary.

[StackinGreen]

You say lots of stupid things.

You finally admit that the truth is stupid. It explains your worldview and politics, so thanks for that.

[vitterd]

You finally admit that the truth is stupid. It explains your worldview and politics, so thanks for that.

You have no idea about truth. You still think trump is gonna win in November. Covid approval ratings are at its highest today.

[StackinGreen]

So... your theory is that HCQ most definitely cures people and the media knows it but they refuse to admit it for political purposes. Is this correct?

If this is true... we will almost certainly hear from Trump in the weeks to come that he did exactly what you said and it cured him.

Let's forget about Trump and Covid-19 for a second and let me ask you about a different hypothetical situation. Let's say there was a disease that killed 2% of it's victims and the other 98% survived. Let's say a group of 100 people that all had the disease took a special medicine to save their lives. In this group of 100 people, 98 people survived and they all credit this special medicine for saving their life. They swear by it. However, family members of the 2 that died said it didn't work at all.

My question for you is... if 98% of the people survive anyway... how would you know that the medicine is doing anything at all?

Ok, because I don't have time to explain the philosophy of mind or the scientific method to you, I will keep it short. The answer is you don't know anything in the way that people use the word in our language, colloquially. You have several questions that are off here, though, or at least lead you astray, and show that you aren't thinking about the topic correctly. A treatment isn't just for survival, it is a spectrum of symptom relief along the disease process that presumes that it will attenuate and thus increase probability for survival. You lack that in your questions and in your example, so it is hard for me to accurately instruct you on this subject.

You probably have similar ideas on the terms "peer reviewed" and "statistically significant". If one is not a trained scientist (I am) one typically does not have a good idea of what these mean, and what they don't.

[StackinGreen]

You have no idea about truth. You still think trump is gonna win in November. Covid approval ratings are at its highest today.

My conclusion that Trump will win is based on several facts, historical and present, and my making an inference. Your post doesn't make any sense and shows how confused you are. The truth has nothing to do with my take on who wins the presidential election. Its components and the way I think about them do, though.

[StackinGreen]

My bet .. Trump takes first available USA produced vaccine, miracle, cured 3 days later. He is risen.

Its a play out of Putin's book, only Putin declared it was his daughter that took the vaccine.

This would be funny, I'd laugh and cheer. The people who hate Mr. Trump on here do not understand anything really about him, his rise to political power, or his supporters. They prove that every time they post or open their brain-numbingly stupid mouths.

[StackinGreen]

So... your theory is that HCQ most definitely cures people and the media knows it but they refuse to admit it for political purposes. Is this correct?

Galt, I didn't address this question, so here is the answer: (keep in mind there is NO "cure" for a virus - by definition)

HCQ and Zinc are a very effective treatment for SARS COV2. If that is too vague for you, another way of stating it would be that if 100,000s of people were confronted by the virus (most people will not need anything and be just fine), and they all appropriately dosed this regimen vs. a placebo or doing nothing, the treatment arm would have better numbers across the board regarding symptoms, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.

Incidentally, that's actually what the science shows.

[vitterd]

My conclusion that Trump will win is based on several facts, historical and present, and my making an inference. Your post doesn't make any sense and shows how confused you are. The truth has nothing to do with my take on who wins the presidential election. Its components and the way I think about them do, though.

It’s your bias opinion. It’s not based in reality.....it’s only your hope.

[StackinGreen]

Just for fun, since you actually posted something without personal insults this time, what will you say when Trump wins again? I'm wondering if you'll even bother posting on the board anymore after all this.

[JohnGalt2341]

Galt, I didn't address this question, so here is the answer: (keep in mind there is NO "cure" for a virus - by definition)

HCQ and Zinc are a very effective treatment for SARS COV2. If that is too vague for you, another way of stating it would be that if 100,000s of people were confronted by the virus (most people will not need anything and be just fine), and they all appropriately dosed this regimen vs. a placebo or doing nothing, the treatment arm would have better numbers across the board regarding symptoms, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.


Incidentally, that's actually what the science shows.

How you come you know about this but people like Fauci or Birx and thousands of others who have dedicated their lives to fighting infectious diseases don't know this?

Is it POSSIBLE that somebody that has dedicated their entire life to studying diseases like this MIGHT know more than you?

What field of Science do you study btw?

[rkelly110]

Galt, I didn't address this question, so here is the answer: (keep in mind there is NO "cure" for a virus - by definition)

HCQ and Zinc are a very effective treatment for SARS COV2. If that is too vague for you, another way of stating it would be that if 100,000s of people were confronted by the virus (most people will not need anything and be just fine), and they all appropriately dosed this regimen vs. a placebo or doing nothing, the treatment arm would have better numbers across the board regarding symptoms, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.

Incidentally, that's actually what the science shows.

I find it very hard to believe that you are in any way affiliated with the health industry except for maybe being a hospital delivery boy.

[vitterd]

I find it very hard to believe that you are in any way affiliated with the health industry except for maybe being a hospital delivery boy.

I think he thinks he is.

[StackinGreen]

How you come you know about this but people like Fauci or Birx and thousands of others who have dedicated their lives to fighting infectious diseases don't know this?

Is it POSSIBLE that somebody that has dedicated their entire life to studying diseases like this MIGHT know more than you?

What field of Science do you study btw?

Science isn't based on people, it's based on the evidence. There are thousands of corrupted swamp creatures, Anthony Fauci is one of them if you want to know the "why" he isn't to be trusted. Every single study has shown that HCQ and Zinc have improved outcomes. Every single one. I can list them for you, if you like.

I'm a doctor and I work in a hospital and I have forgotten more about diagnosis than Fauci ever knew. That is actually true, since he was never a praciticing physician. But you didn't know that now, did you.


*By the way, it's possible that you know more than I do about COV-SARS2, but reading what you guys write to me, it's clear you don't have 1/1000th of the knowledge. Why should you? You don't follow the science or have gone to medical school; you just trust political pundits. So don't tell me I'm the one full of it.

[rkelly110]

Fox just reported rump isn't taking hydroxy. He's on some other experimental drug/ therapy.

[StackinGreen]

it could be ivermectin since he reported previously taking hcq, zn, maybe azithro ... and these are a quad therapy together at times

[RudyRuetigger]

be careful, libs...be careful


Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are showing early signs of Trump

[DwightShrute]

[RudyRuetigger]

if it wasnt for fraud mail in voting, trump couldve won every fukkin state

[JohnGalt2341]

I know we've all heard this before but if Trump doesn't win both Florida and Pennsylvania his chances of winning the election are slim to none.

I took a look at 5Dimes state by state(and DC) odds and I narrowed down the 10 states that are the closest according to the current odds. Of the 41 states with odds of -350 or more Trump is winning 21 of them for 164 delegates. Dem's are winning 20 states for 229 delegates. There are 145 delegates remaining in the 10 closest contested states.

Trump needs 106 of the remaining 145 delegates and Dems need 41. Below are the 10 states that are the most closely contested and their number of delegates.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11
Florida -140 29
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20
Wisconsin -215 10

If the -350's or higher hold up, then Trump needs to win at least 6 of the closest contested states to have any chance at all. There might be a couple -350's or higher that flip but I doubt there will be many. If 5Dimes is wrong on any of the -350's or higher... which states do you think that they are wrong about? If they are not wrong... which of the 10 states above do you think Trump wins?

The post above is from June. The current price for these states at Bovada are below. The 2nd number are delegates.

Trump
Georgia -145 16
Iowa -150 6
North Carolina +110 15
Ohio -130 8

Biden
Arizona -220 11
Florida -145 29
Michigan -400 16
New Hampshire -500 4
Pennsylvania -300 20
Wisconsin -350 10

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If Trump doesn't win both FL and PA his chances are slim to none.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Trump is winning Florida as of today

[vitterd]

Trump is winning Florida as of today

What do you base this on? Hope?

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump is winning Florida as of today

According to who? I actually sort of expect Trump to take Florida but I am just wondering what your source is.