Discrepancy in covid figures

[garyking]

450 NBA players all tested 13positive =covid rate of 2.8 percent.
327 million population of USA times 2.8 percent =2.994 million infected.
worldometer currently lists USA infected at 14,318.
Is this due to the fact not all Americans have been tested (a scary thought), or the fact that NBA players are still out partying and more likely to contract the virus?

[Chi_archie]

Does the avg American travel as much as an NBA player?

[garyking]

Good Point

[Foxx]

And there is 32 NFL head coaches. 1 has tested positive so that's like 1/32 so 3.12%

[jjgold]

What’s they’re going to need more sample size to determine this

[krk1030]

All these NBA guys have no symptoms.

Tons of us have it and have no idea.

[cyclingbettor]

They were partying with Rudy Gobert.

[jjgold]

Which makes it really not dangerous for most people

All these NBA guys have no symptoms.

Tons of us have it and have no idea.

[asiagambler]

It wasn't only players that tested positive so that percentage isn't right

For instance with the Sixers, it was 3 people in the organization, not necessarily players that tested positive

We also don't know for certain that all teams got tested. So far, only 8 teams are confirmed (Jazz, Nets, Raptors, Thunder, Sixers, Pistons, Lakers, Celtics) and we also don't know if players who tested positive are being withheld because of privacy concerns

[garyking]

yeah, i threw this out there as an approximate mostly to show how huge the discrepancy is, and agree with krk1030, that a lot of people have it and have no idea or haven't been tested yet.

[b1slickguy]

Very big discrepancy in the numbers being tossed around. The numbers that show the 0.1% of deaths from the seasonal flu is from the CDC's "estimated" number of people who had the seasonal flu, not just confirmed cases. While the numbers being used for COVID-19 deaths are taken from confirmed cases, not estimates. The actual death rate for the seasonal flu is about 10% when using the same math the CDC is using for COVID-19. You can draw your own conclusions from there...

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/as-tgp-first-reported-mortality-rates-from-coronavirus-are-less-than-half-of-what-was-reported-by-the-who-to-create-global-panic/

[garyking]

I guess they can use whatever figures suit themselves. Brings to mind another question I had, so far there are 88441 recovered and 10049 deaths. That seems like a death rate of just over 10% to me. Yet a death rate of 2-3.9 percent has been quoted. They seem to use as a death rate the percentage of all who have been infected who have died, but it can't be assumed all the others will recover.

[Chi_archie]

I guess they can use whatever figures suit themselves. Brings to mind another question I had, so far there are 88441 recovered and 10049 deaths. That seems like a death rate of just over 10% to me. Yet a death rate of 2-3.9 percent has been quoted. They seem to use as a death rate the percentage of all who have been infected who have died, but it can't be assumed all the others will recover.

Exactly. We wont have a real death rate until this is all over

We can't do a simple numerator/denominator equation of confirmed cases/confirmed cov deaths like. 217/14366

Many of those 14,366 just received a positive result and won't be better for 2 weeks or more.
And some unfortunately won't make it.

I do question the small amount of recovered cases. Are they just slow to retest people that are at home and back to normal and awaiting the end of 14 days of isolation, due to prioritizing tests for newly sick?

Also I'm.sure hundreds have died in the last few weeks that never were tested for this. I wonder how their deaths were classified? Just pnemonia if they tested negative for flu?

[pologq]

there had to be many who died earlier who were just labeled as having a bad flu unfortunately

i think the numbers are skewed because most are not tested until they are bad enough where they go to the doctor and get a test done. if they just stay home and fight thru without a test, they are not counted. doesn't mean they did not have it.

not downplaying it, just being honest

i heard of a co-worker's family friend's son getting it at 26 and on a ventilator - perfectly healthy kid that he knows of - that is fcukin scary

[JayLA]

If you take out China's numbers (and we should) the death rate becomes like 20%....do we really think Russia, being so close to china, really has less than 200 cases?

[KVB]

If you take out China's numbers (and we should) the death rate becomes like 20%....do we really think Russia, being so close to china, really has less than 200 cases?

I bet you beat the sports market on the regular.

LMAO.

I have a better idea. Let’s take out all of the people that are sick and didn’t die, then we get 100% death rate.

Yeah, that’ll be more precise.

lol

[TheLock]

I bet you beat the sports market on the regular.

LMAO.

I have a better idea. Let’s take out all of the people that are sick and didn’t die, then we get 100% death rate.

Yeah, that’ll be more precise.

lol

Right?

When I read his post my eyes rolled so hard into the back of my head that I think I caused permanent damage.

[Skookum]

JayLA's point is that China is lying about their numbers. If you look at their reported numbers charted on a graph, it makes no sense mathematically. They are claiming their new cases have essentially stopped. Their numbers are BS. It's a shame that politics play a role at all, but they clearly do.

[KVB]

JayLA's point is that China is lying about their numbers. If you look at their reported numbers charted on a graph, it makes no sense mathematically. They are claiming their new cases have essentially stopped. Their numbers are BS. It's a shame that politics play a role at all, but they clearly do.

I get that.

But to arrive at a 20% death rate might undermine any real point.

That's all I'm saying.

Not trying to insult you JayLA, even with the sports quip. No beef here.

[KVB]

All I know is that I rely on sports to just happen, all it has to do is occur and we'll profit, and the shit isn't even happening.

And just when I realize how fukked up that is, I realize how many people are facing life and death over it everywhere.

Just crazy times right now. Our area and the community is not in an epidemic, yet, and we're shutting down well in advance.

We hope.

Stay safe everyone.

[Foxx]

I get that.
But to arrive at a 20% death rate might undermine any real point.
That's all I'm saying.
Not trying to insult you JayLA, even with the sports quip. No beef here.

Yeah, not sure where the 20% came from, maybe (deaths)/(closed cases). Closed cases being deaths + recovered. Either way, the point is valid that removing the china data makes the numbers and graphs look much worse.

[RudyRuetigger]

Exactly. We wont have a real death rate until this is all over

we will never have a real death rate because many wont get tested


myself included, ill let you guys know if im dying though

[Booya711]

anyone who dies now, they will report it as coronavirus just because...

[pologq]

we will never have a real death rate because many wont get tested
myself included, ill let you guys know if im dying though

agreed.

unless each and everyone one of us are mandated to get tested and they come door to door, we will never know accurate numbers.

i am not going to the doctor unless absolutely necessary. hopefully that is the same for all of us if we catch it we can recover at home fine.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

anyone who dies now, they will report it as coronavirus just because...

50% death rate for these two corona cases!

Also, we all want to bang Sierra Fox.

[Roger T. Bannon]

The death rate due to the virus are not the only deaths. If the hospitals do become overwhelmed with cases that means lots of people are going to die of heart attacks that would have lived. That is one of the major worries. You don't even have to have all that many cases before other people start dying.

[Roger T. Bannon]

3% of NBA players having it is crazy because they did not have all that much exposure or at least certainly not that anyone was taking seriously. They were even joking about it while being positive. Obviously, if they had not shut down the season, they would all have gotten it.

[JayLA]

I bet you beat the sports market on the regular.

LMAO.

I have a better idea. Let’s take out all of the people that are sick and didn’t die, then we get 100% death rate.

Yeah, that’ll be more precise.

lol

I suck at sports betting math. I'm just a streaky bettor who bets on some match up, feel, and line movement and I get unlucky more often than not, KVB! See below for my reasoning for 20% without china's numbers

Right?

When I read his post my eyes rolled so hard into the back of my head that I think I caused permanent damage.

Ok? Not more eyerolling than your MLB picks. Why did you roll your eyes? Did i sound like a conspiracy theorist?

JayLA's point is that China is lying about their numbers. If you look at their reported numbers charted on a graph, it makes no sense mathematically. They are claiming their new cases have essentially stopped. Their numbers are BS. It's a shame that politics play a role at all, but they clearly do.

Exactly.

I get that.

But to arrive at a 20% death rate might undermine any real point.

That's all I'm saying.

Not trying to insult you JayLA, even with the sports quip. No beef here.

all good kvb, i just come here to shoot the shit, i don't really care either way.

Yeah, not sure where the 20% came from, maybe (deaths)/(closed cases). Closed cases being deaths + recovered. Either way, the point is valid that removing the china data makes the numbers and graphs look much worse.

I have a chinese client and we went through this with him. I, too, told him not to spread hyperbole about 20% death rate. But look at our reasoning, he might have a point. Keep in mind the following numbers are Monday's

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = deaths / (deaths + recovered)
which, with the latest data available, would be equal to
6,687 / (6,687 + 77,867) = 8% CFR (worldwide)

If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get

3,474 / (3,474 + 10,048) = 25.7% CFR (outside of mainland China)

are these figures wrong?

[JayLA]

He also said this:

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020:

813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

He was arguing this 2.2% number thrown around is false.
He hates the chinese government, though, so of course i took it with a grain of salt. still interesting

[GUMMO77]

I do question the small amount of recovered cases. Are they just slow to retest people that are at home and back to normal and awaiting the end of 14 days of isolation, due to prioritizing tests for newly sick?

Sounds like it from the some of the people that tested positive. The first guy to get it in MN said they wouldn't retest him because of the lack of tests.

[Art Vandelay]

50% death rate for these two corona cases!

Also, we all want to bang Sierra Fox.

Correct on both fronts!

[asiagambler]

China has lied from the very beginning. There is no reason to trust their numbers as legitimate

[JayLA]

China has lied from the very beginning. There is no reason to trust their numbers as legitimate

Exactly. If you take out China's numbers, you get a better idea.
At any rate, either you recover or you die, so just diving the total number of deathss by total number of cases isn't very useful.

[garyking]

Bang on JayLA, and even more scary when you realize there are many cases including the USA 237/125 with more deaths than recovered

[TheLock]

lol