What is the math formula to convert a game moneyline into the true probablity for the game?
If the moneyline is close to -100 then I think it is OK to just take the midpoint. So a game with a line of favorite-120/dog+100, I could assume -110 is the true moneyline and the favorite win% is 52.4%.
But if a game has a moneyline of favorite-450/dog+350, I do not think it is correct to assume the true favorite game line is -400 or 80%.
If the moneyline is close to -100 then I think it is OK to just take the midpoint. So a game with a line of favorite-120/dog+100, I could assume -110 is the true moneyline and the favorite win% is 52.4%.
But if a game has a moneyline of favorite-450/dog+350, I do not think it is correct to assume the true favorite game line is -400 or 80%.
