Laid -187 with LAD.......hoping to scalp later

LT Profits · 08-03-09, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Hoping for at least a 10 cent scalp here.........

You did better than that. Milwaukee now +208.

donjuan · 08-03-09, 10:13 AM

Monkey,

Just wait until you hear the NFL teaser strategy he espouses.

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You did better than that. Milwaukee now +208.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Exactly

Now do us all a huge favor and go take a powder.

..................and

.

But now it's getting fun...

Bread · 08-03-09, 10:15 AM

MonkeyF0cker is one of my favorites here. Even though I am one of the Players Talk "mindless masses" for sure.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Monkey,

Just wait until you hear the NFL teaser strategy he espouses.

Haha. Oh man. I can't wait.

Zelda · 08-03-09, 10:18 AM

MF scalpers buy back even if it is not the most profitable way long term (yea i know that you should always let the bet stand alone), coz there is a chance that you go broke on a bad streak.
Or get nervous after several bad beats.

That is what seperates the whole concept from gambling.
There is no right or wrong, it´s a personal decision everyone has to make...

pavyracer · 08-03-09, 10:22 AM

Fishhead is scalping for the last 4 hrs hoping to make enough money to buy a Happy Meal for lunch. An SBR pioneer!

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

MF scalpers buy back even if it is not the most profitable way long term (yea i know that you should always let the bet stand alone), coz there is a chance that you go broke on a bad streak.
Or get nervous after several bad beats.

That is what seperates the whole concept from gambling.
There is no right or wrong, it´s a personal decision everyone has to make...

Very true..........your VERY SHARP!

MONEY MANAGEMENT is #1 with me.

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Fishhead is scalping for the last 4 hrs hoping to make enough money to buy a Happy Meal for lunch. An SBR pioneer!

Will give you my figures on the LA game in a few...........and remember, this is just ONE GAME.

donjuan · 08-03-09, 10:25 AM

MF scalpers buy back even if it is not the most profitable way long term (yea i know that you should always let the bet stand alone), coz there is a chance that you go broke on a bad streak.
Or get nervous after several bad beats.

That is what seperates the whole concept from gambling.
There is no right or wrong, it´s a personal decision everyone has to make...

You need to learn about EV, EG and utility.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

MF scalpers buy back even if it is not the most profitable way long term (yea i know that you should always let the bet stand alone), coz there is a chance that you go broke on a bad streak.
Or get nervous after several bad beats.

That is what seperates the whole concept from gambling.
There is no right or wrong, it´s a personal decision everyone has to make...

So if a person were to lay $10k in the hopes of locking in a $180 profit in this scenario, that defines risk aversion? Sorry, but that's insane.
Why wouldn't you maximize growth instead? It makes no sense.

Zelda · 08-03-09, 10:30 AM

I need to learn nothing from you DJ, as i made enough money the way i do it.
And i never had to sweat a game, if i didn´t make a rare mistake.

Thanks for trying thou, if smartass talking makes you happy: please go on, it´s amusing.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Very true..........your VERY SHARP!

MONEY MANAGEMENT is #1 with me.

Haha. How absurd. You can effectively manage your bankroll without scalping.

Zelda · 08-03-09, 10:33 AM

You obviously don´t know everything about this business MF...
if i scalp i can "bet" much higher amounts.

Yesterday i had ~15k on both sides of a game, would/could you do that with your method?
Would it yield more money? All things that have to be proven yet.

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

I need to learn nothing from you DJ, as i made enough money the way i do it.
And i never had to sweat a game, if i didn´t make a rare mistake.

Thanks for trying thou, if smartass talking makes you happy: please go on, it´s amusing.

I much prefer grinding away and utilizing money management as much as possible, much the sameway you do.

Here are my final figures for the LA/MIL game..........I feel very confortable and content with my position.

MILWAUKEE VICTORY----+$46
LA VICTORY---------------+$475

I'm basically getting a 2-1 favorite at 10-1 odds.

pavyracer · 08-03-09, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

You obviously don´t know everything about this business MF...
if i scalp i can "bet" much higher amounts.

Yesterday i had ~15k on both sides of a game, would/could you do that with your method?
Would it yield more money? All things that have to be proven yet.

What book does allow 30K on a single baseball game?

donjuan · 08-03-09, 10:36 AM

I much prefer grinding away and utilizing money management as much as possible, much the sameway you do.

So you prefer to be insanely sub-optimal? You clearly have no clue about anything close to optimal money management.

rookie · 08-03-09, 10:38 AM

NM...already discussed

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

I need to learn nothing from you DJ, as i made enough money the way i do it.
And i never had to sweat a game, if i didn´t make a rare mistake.

Thanks for trying thou, if smartass talking makes you happy: please go on, it´s amusing.

If we take this game as an example again, you'd rather take the $180 than the $300 in expected profit by letting the bet stand every time this scenario were to occur? That's fine with me, but don't get angry if you get insulted. DJ might just have a good point...

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead;207362

[SIZE=5

MILWAUKEE VICTORY----+$46[/size]
LA VICTORY---------------+$475

I love a win-win situation........for so many reasons.

Those that understand money management will understand, those that are prone to more risk may not.

To each his own and success.

-FH-

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

You obviously don´t know everything about this business MF...
if i scalp i can "bet" much higher amounts.

Yesterday i had ~15k on both sides of a game, would/could you do that with your method?
Would it yield more money? All things that have to be proven yet.

Uhh. We're not talking about an immediately available scalp here. Obviously, if it were, it would be an entirely different story and there would be no criticism as I would do the same.

donjuan · 08-03-09, 10:47 AM

I love a win-win situation........for so many reasons.

List them.

Those that understand money management will understand

I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark here and say that your understanding of money management is extremely limited. I get that you're old and stuck in your ways, but don't pretend it's close to optimal even for someone as risk averse as yourself.

Zelda · 08-03-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Uhh. We're not talking about an immediately available scalp here. Obviously, if it were, it would be an entirely different story and there would be no criticism as I would do the same.

Where is the difference? He never planned to let the Dodgers bet ride, didn´t he?

gym rat · 08-03-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Uhh. We're not talking about an immediately available scalp here. Obviously, if it were, it would be an entirely different story and there would be no criticism as I would do the same.

Is this guy making any sense at all?????

jjgold · 08-03-09, 11:05 AM

I love how fishhead works and maneuvers the lines.

Scalping adds up if your consistent at doing it and alert. A profitable scalper always has. Lots if volume that books actually like.

Robust · 08-03-09, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

don't pretend it's close to optimal

i am intrigued.. not looking for a fight by any means.. if you don't mind, please post a link to where this has been discussed.. I always want to explore better ways of trying to beat the books... they kick my ass all the time..

Robust

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by Zelda

Where is the difference? He never planned to let the Dodgers bet ride, didn´t he?

What happens when the line moves against him or no scalp is available? An immediate scalp may allow you to get down more than normal because you don't have that risk. Duh. And that's provided that you're not hitting limits on normal wagers already...

Robust · 08-03-09, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

MILWAUKEE VICTORY----+$46
LA VICTORY---------------+$475

now giving don juan the arguement that there are better ways.. what is so wrong with this?? you can take a nap and check how much your account has increased by.. i would love to do this everyday.. but I am not that smart.. lol

Robust

MonkeyF0cker · 08-03-09, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Robust

now giving don juan the arguement that there are better ways.. what is so wrong with this?? you can take a nap and check how much your account has increased by.. i would love to do this everyday.. but I am not that smart.. lol

Robust

Because in the long run you make more money by allowing the original wager to stand. What happens when the line moves against you or not at all? Do you lock in a loss?

Basically, what you're doing by doing this is devaluing your wagers with the highest amount of ROI...

LT Profits · 08-03-09, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Because in the long run you make more money by allowing the original wager to stand. What happens when the line moves against you or not at all? Do you lock in a loss?

Basically, what you're doing by doing this is devaluing your wagers with the highest amount of ROI...

DING DING DING!

In the long run, if you have a play at -187, and the current market is -220, you are better off letting the original play stand that hedging or scalping with a -EV side.

Now there ARE cases where the dog could become +EV if the line rises enough, in which case some buyback would be warranted. Is that the case here? That depends of whether you would bet Milwaukee at +208 on its own merit without having an open wager on the other side. I would think not.

Nicky Santoro · 08-03-09, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

DING DING DING!

In the long run, if you have a play at -187, and the current market is -220, you are better off letting the original play stand that hedging or scalping with a -EV side.

LT, good post..i was waiting for someone to say this.. .. if he would have bet 3k on LAD -187 ONLY., when the market is -220, over the long haul, he'd end up with way way way more cash than a scalp.. and he tied up money on both sides of the game... instead of betting both sides of the game where one side is the strong side adn the other isn't.. he should just have bet LAD -187 and then take home the money...

but also, this won't always work out like this for him.. his next scalp might go against him and then he would end up with a polish scalp.. like -187/+181..

but it's always smarter to bang out the weak # instead of scalping it.. you are throwing money away by scalping when you get a great # like this one on LAD..

mathematically, it's a bad move..

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 02:16 PM

LT and NICKY.......there is nobody in this thread disputing that........and this was stated long, long ago in this thread.

Trust me, there is a method to my madness, and it has served my very well over the years.

Nicky Santoro · 08-03-09, 02:18 PM

i'll say this though.. from 1998-2006, all i did was scalp all day.. i ddin't even bet.. you know why?? cause i was playing out the bonus rollovers..scalping is the best way to quickly play out your rollovers.. there aint no better way..

those were the days..

pinny, 10k at +185... then 10k at 3 books laying -183 and -184.. i just played out $28,400 of my bonus rollover money and i made about 100$ to boot..

i used to play out these rollovers quickly as hell by scalping.. while making money on bonuses..

i miss those days.. i miss NETeller too.. i miss the 40% cash bonuses with a 3x rollover..

Fishhead · 08-03-09, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

i'll say this though.. from 1998-2006, all i did was scalp all day.. i ddin't even bet.. you know why?? cause i was playing out the bonus rollovers..scalping is the best way to quickly play out your rollovers.. there aint no better way..

those were the days..

pinny, 10k at +185... then 10k at 3 books laying -183 and -184.. i just played out $28,400 of my bonus rollover money and i made about 50$ to boot..

i used to play out these rollovers quickly as hell by scalping.. while making money on bonuses..

i miss those days.. i miss NETeller too.. i miss the 40% cash bonuses with a 3x rollover..

I thought Neteller was good to go in Canada?