Bitcoin Price Tracking & Discussion -- 2020

[raiders72001]

Indicator Overview

MVRV Z-Score uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.It uses three metrics:
1. Market Value (blue line): The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
2. Realised Value (orange line): Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realised Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
In doing so, it strips out the short term market sentiment that we have within the Market Value metric. It can therefore be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of Bitcoin value which Market Value moves above and below depending on the market sentiment at the time.
3. Z-score (red line): A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realised value.
How It Can Be Used

The MVRV Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realised value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (red line) entering the pink box and indicates the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle to within two weeks.It also shows when market value is far below realised value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.
Created By

@aweandwonder who has unfortunately since deleted the original article and his online profile.He built on the initial work to create MVRV by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell of Adaptive Capital
Date Created

November 2018

[raiders72001]

Read a short article saying a rise has started about 4 months out from each halvening in the past... and we are about 4 months out from the next one now.



Any truth experts?

Definitely true. Miners will soon receive half the reward for blocks mined. One thing that can make up for that is an increase in the BTC price.

[Sam Odom]

Break $10K before February ??

Currently 8,860

[pablo222]

I think so Sam.

[raiders72001]

Break $10K before February ??

Currently 8,860

Let's hope Sammy.

[lotuspod]

Read a short article saying a rise has started about 4 months out from each halvening in the past... and we are about 4 months out from the next one now.

Any truth experts?

Quite a bit of accumulation and anticipation goes on in the 12 months or so leading up to a halving, but it can take a year or more for the price to really take off to highs. We've only had two previous events to really look at it, and these are so early in the long run that it's hard to read much into them and be sure.

I think it will be less likely to grow to as large of a bubble as the previous two, now that there are a lot of services that can put downwards pressure on the market through leverage. Plus it would take massive amounts of money, which would most likely imply some major global issues going on.

With that said, even the more conservative estimates look really nice ($40k-60k roughly) according to stock-to-flow. But the issue remains that we don't have near enough data to use this to accurately predict price, it's still so early that people are simply going to back-fit their models in order to make them more accurate for predicting the halving after this one anyway....so they should be treated as rough guidelines and not exactly at face value. The author of the most popular one for this cycle talks about it a bit in this thread here -

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1212385816036687872

And here's his latest forecast, couldn't get image upload to work but just note that it's in log scale -

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1213064246843596801

[Sam Odom]

$8,936.63

[SBR Drew]

$8876.82

[chico2663]

Hoping for 17000

[pablo222]

$9162

[deadphish]

glad i didnt sell last month when it dropped to $6500...i was sweating my stash

[lotuspod]

Over-leveraged shorts got wiped out on the jump upwards, and now it's the over-leveraged longs turn with this latest sharp downwards wick.

Many experienced traders are sitting on the sidelines now, until they can get some confirmation as to what they feel is going on. Buying spot and holding isn't a bad idea, but trying to get large profits quickly with leverage is generally just a bad gamble.

Stay safe and just stack sats, unless you're highly experienced and have plenty of capital to back it up...even then there is a lot of risk.

[jjgold]

Over-leveraged shorts got wiped out on the jump upwards, and now it's the over-leveraged longs turn with this latest sharp downwards wick.

Many experienced traders are sitting on the sidelines now, until they can get some confirmation as to what they feel is going on. Buying spot and holding isn't a bad idea, but trying to get large profits quickly with leverage is generally just a bad gamble.

Stay safe and just stack sats, unless you're highly experienced and have plenty of capital to back it up...even then there is a lot of risk.

most people get chewed alive with bitcoin, all a con game

[thomorino]

Bitcoin looks like it wants to go higher, breakout at 9k failed then their was lots of selling, the overall upward movement still looks intact.

[Poisec]

the overall upward movement still looks intact.

Don't think so...
important price is 10.5k, if it does not go above then we won't see 11k for this year.



clearly that dump shows the closer resistance at 9.2k will be tough to break.

By the way the short uptrend has been broken it seems:



If we below 8.5k soon then I think we see 7k again...

[lotuspod]

The price drop brought us back in line with the most recent cycle, which is likely the most accurate anyway. It's going to break 10k and 11.5k (most likely by a lot), just a matter of when - but it could be longer than many are expecting. Dipping back down to 6k-7k wouldn't make me bearish at all, plus it benefits the mass of people who just DCA anyway. And mainly it provides a great opportunity for all of those who missed out on previous runs.

The halving itself won't be like a switch though, in fact I'd somewhat expect a small dip in the days/weeks right after it. Especially if it looks like people are starting to front-run it too much leading up to it, perfect opportunity for larger whales to squeeze over-leveraged bulls. Then the whales take their profit and flip bullish, after clearing out people that would otherwise be diluting their gains - kind of a double win for the whales.

[Sam Odom]

$8,663.37


Latest Bitcoin Core = 0.19.0.1

https://bitcoin.org/en/download

[JAKEPEAVY21]

[bitcoinLuke]

$8,663.37


Latest Bitcoin Core = 0.19.0.1

https://bitcoin.org/en/download

If you have any amount of Bitcoin over $500, I'd recommend getting a Ledger Nano, or a Keep Key (only because they go on sale for $5 at times).

[lotuspod]

If you have any amount of Bitcoin over $500, I'd recommend getting a Ledger Nano, or a Keep Key (only because they go on sale for $5 at times).

I'd be wary of buying a hardware wallet at a steep discount, and a bit wary of buying one at all currently...especially if not direct from manufacturer. Best to wait until more secure solutions get integrated into commonly seen/used devices (phones) so as to not be a giant red flag saying "I have bitcoin in here!". Wrenches are cheap too, and sadly we've already seen what happens.

There are also the fairly new metal physical wallets, but they suffer some of the same issues - mainly that it makes it obvious there's bitcoin there. Plus most/all have failed some form(s) of stress/use testing, the trade-off is generally less durability for things like lower cost and easier use.

For the same price, or even cheaper, you can buy some commonly available tools and materials which allow you to create your own DIY version of a durable physical wallet - which you could make far more discreet, durable, and secure. It allows you to make as many backup copies, separate wallets, multiple-piece wallets, or even decoy wallets as you want/need. For the multiple-piece wallets you could even do a 2-of-3 system, or 3-of-5, and so on - depending on your security requirements.

All of this for roughly the same relative price point as buying a single hardware wallet that will likely be outdated in a few years anyway. Plus you can use the tool(s) for other things, and I'm sure many people already have something that would work which would bring the price down to little or nothing.

I'd probably recommend engraving, just be sure to treat the surface afterwards - especially metals. It would be interesting to see what some of the more creative metalworkers, woodworkers, and others can come up with - if they don't mind sharing some of their methods anyway.

Forgot to add that iirc, you only really need the first 4 letters of each seed word as they're all unique in that regard. So you only need 48 characters in total, assuming it is a 12 word seed phrase.

[Sam Odom]

If you have any amount of Bitcoin over $500, I'd recommend getting a Ledger Nano, or a Keep Key (only because they go on sale for $5 at times).

$8,408.68


Sammy is not asking for trouble... But have had Bitcore Core for years and years. Way over $500 value in it at times -- No problems

Have on a Linux laptop - unplugged from internet when not it use. Off and unplugged 95% of the time

Backed up in two separate places offline

Nonetheless... wouldnt mind having a hardware wallet

[asiagambler]

Hardware wallets are pointless. Better off just storing your btc in a cold wallet

[pablo222]

$9113

[Bsims]

Coronavirus is BTC's best friend. The worse the news gets, the higher cryptos go.

[Chi_archie]

Coronavirus is BTC's best friend. The worse the news gets, the higher cryptos go.

Very very interesting!

[lotuspod]

~$9350 today - it was below $3500 at this time last year.

[themike78]

~$9350 today - it was below $3500 at this time last year.

And it was $20,000 in Dec. 2017. What's the point?

[lotuspod]

And it was $20,000 in Dec. 2017. What's the point?

Well, how many coins traded hands in the 3-6k range than in the 17-20k range? Or how many days have we spent at each?

Also worth noting that institutions like the CME stepped in around that time, they even come out and say they've managed to 'tame' BTC since then. Volume and liquidity is much higher now, it takes a lot more effort to move the price.

[ThaWoj]

$15k possible in 3 months?

[Golden fleece]

I just cant get over the fact that no one really knows who the creator is

and they are sitting on so much without ever using any

feels like an experiment to me

probably intelligence community or some entity even more corrupt. that's why I just cant trust it right now

[thechaoz]

Nice RALLY!

[asiagambler]

I just cant get over the fact that no one really knows who the creator is

and they are sitting on so much without ever using any

feels like an experiment to me

probably intelligence community or some entity even more corrupt. that's why I just cant trust it right now

It's probably 3 people Nick Szabo, Hal Finney (RIP) and Wei Dai

Really really unlikely to be the intelligence community or a government entity. The whole concept of the blockchain is decentralization aka anti-government

[Golden fleece]

It's probably 3 people Nick Szabo, Hal Finney (RIP) and Wei Dai

Really really unlikely to be the intelligence community or a government entity. The whole concept of the blockchain is decentralization aka anti-government

I will have to look into them. first time hearing their names

I understand your concept on the purpose of blockchain but I'm from the school of thought that there are branches of the intelligence community that IS anti-government also...

they are rogue AF these days. they won't listen to or abide by any authority which is 'essentially' what anti-government is..... JS

[asiagambler]

I will have to look into them. first time hearing their names

I understand your concept on the purpose of blockchain but I'm from the school of thought that there are branches of the intelligence community that IS anti-government also...

they are rogue AF these days. they won't listen to or abide by any authority which is 'essentially' what anti-government is..... JS

Well if they are anti-government then they aren't corrupt in my book

[Golden fleece]

why would they not transfer 1 single bitcoin out of that wallet? that fact and not knowing for sure who they are is so fishy to me

at least with xrp they are a cooperation with at least some transparency