I am on Ohio State huge here but thinking of unloading some of it off... I am getting nervous about this game....
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המוסד
המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים
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Over the playComment -
Ohio St money lineComment -
I'd be nervous, too. With good reason.Comment -
This will be the best of the two playoff games. It seems as if everyone in here is on Ohio State, which is bad news for the Buckeyes. People in here are consistent losers. As of now, I took Clemson - 1/2 for a first half wager only. I do not see making any other wagers on this game.Comment -
I've been around for awhile and have seen a lot of Big10 football in person and on TV. As much as I despise their fan base (arrogant) I will take this Ohio St team against anyone and if I'm wrong and lose I'm ok with it. One of the best Big10 football teams on both sides of the ball that is getting points to me is a no brainer. That second half against the Badgers in Indy was how good this team is. I realize the last time they played Clemson it was an embarrassment for the Buckeyes but personnel has changed since then and I'll take my chances on this Ohio St. group.Comment -
Should be a truly awesome game. I would not bet against OS.Comment -
hold what you have
i what universe do you see clemson stopping Ohio St?Comment -
Remember, there still is plenty of time for some of these players to screw things up. It always seems to happen.Comment -
Strong opinions on both sides of this game and since this line isn't budging it looks like a bookmakers dream type of game.Comment -
How much do you have on the game?Comment -
The HERD says this game will be his biggest bet everComment -
Sure but you have NFL divisional opponents with the exact same personnel play each twice within a matter of weeks and can often have dramatically different results, so a game that was played 3 years ago with 99% different rosters and a different head coach shouldn't be overemphasized for this handicap imo.
If anything it further serves to motivate Ohio State... Even the players who didn't play that game or weren't enrolled at OSU are still aware of the results. And the Buckeye coaching staff sure as shit remember that debacle and won't want to suffer the same embarrassment.Comment -
Clemson here....by 10Comment -
Im buying that Clemson has been bored and not into the lesser meaningful games. Urban Meyer endorsed that also. I think Clemson is better and waiting to show how good they can be.Comment -
I've watched every Ohio State game this season and have watched enough Clemson games this year to try and come up with an objective opinion on this game. I see a lot of stereotypes thrown around when discussing this game which are just plain bad, like Fields being a bad passer because he is a black dual-threat QB when in reality he is the 2nd highest graded passer by Pro Football Focus only behind Burrow. I am thinking the Over is the correct play and leaning Ohio State ML (but I could see either team winning), and here’s my write-up on why I think so:
First let’s start with my opinion of the personnel for both teams. I’m basing this after watching film on both teams and trying to be as objective as I can. Below is my rating system and my player ratings for both teams:
Star Player: Gamebreakers that will be given a 1st round grade for the NFL draft.
Good Player: Players that will likely be drafted.
Average Player: Players that may sign as an undrafted free agent.
Bad/No Impact Player: No pro potential.
Clemson Offense
Star Players: #16 QB - Trevor Lawrence, #9 RB - Travis Etienne, #5 WR - Tee Higgins, #8 WR - Justyn Ross, #79 LT - Jackson Carmen
Good Players: #3 WR - Amari Rogers, #73 RT - Tremayne Anchrum, #76 C - Sean Pollard
Average Players: #74 LG - John Simpson, #59 RG - Gage Cervenka
Bad/No Impact Players: #25 TE - JC Chalk
Clemson Defense
Star Players: #11 LB - Isaiah Simmons, #8 CB - AJ Terrell
Good Players: #3 DE - Xavier Thomas, #10 CB - Derion Kendrick, #13 DT - Tyler Davis
Average Player: #12 S - K’Von Wallace, #47 LB - James Skalski, # 47 LB - Chad Smith, #44 DT - Nyles Pinckney, #19 S - Tanner Muse
Bad/No Impact Players: #34 DE - Logan Rudolph
Clemson Special Teams
Average Players: #48 P - Will Spiers
Bad/No Impact Players: #29 K - BT Potter
Ohio State Offense
Star Players: #1 QB - Justin Fields, #2 RB - JK Dobbins, #52 RG - Wyatt Davis
Good Players: #17 WR - Chris Olave, #5 WR - Garrett Wilson, #14 WR - KJ Hill, #73 LG - Jonah Jackson, #71 C - Josh Myers
Average Players: #9 WR - Binjimen Victor, #75 LT - Thayer Munford, #76 RT Branden Bowen
Bad/No Impact Players: #89 TE - Luke Farrell
Ohio State Defense
Star Players: #2 DE - Chase Young, #1 CB - Jeffrey Okudah, #24 CB - Shaun Wade
Good Players: #4 S - Jordan Fuller, #3 CB - Damon Arnette, #9 DT - Jashon Cornell, #39 LB - Malik Harrison, #20 LB - Pete Werner
Average Player: #5 LB - Baron Browning, #11 DE - Tyreke Smith, #53 DT - Davon Hamilton
Bad/No Impact Players: #32 LB - Tuf Borland
Ohio State Special Teams
Good Players: #95 K - Blake Haubeil
Average Players: #91 P - Drue Chrisman
So how do I see this game playing out?
When you look at Clemson, what stands out to me in every game I watch are the QB and the receivers. Lawrence will likely be the #1 pick in next year’s draft, and Higgins and Ross are both big and physical WRs and will be high draft picks. There is no way Ohio State will stop them, even though Ohio State has a very good secondary. Even in the NFL, professional players in the secondary cannot stop today’s passing offenses and 300 yards passing is typical. I see it being very likely that Clemson will focus on the passing game, and Lawrence will throw it about 35 times and have about 350 yards passing in this game. I see Travis Etienne getting about 15 carries, and having close to 100 yards rushing in this game even with limited carries. Etienne is the best back in college football and is very underrated, but Clemson does not depend on him as much as say JK Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor since their passing attack is so dominant. Ohio State has had two bad halves where they missed many tackles (1st half against Michigan, and 1st half against Wisconsin in B1G Championship) which isn’t a good trend against a running back with the highest yardage total after contact in CFB.
In last year’s championship game against Alabama, Clemson had 482 yards of offense. As I mentioned above, I expect a similar yardage output this year against Ohio State. In last year’s championship game, Clemson scored on 6 possessions with that yardage total (5 TD, and 1 FG). Clemson will have to be efficient in the red zone if they want to win this game, as their kicking game has been poor this year with kicker BT Potter only converting 63% of his attempts. I think it would be fair to expect Clemson to have 4 TD, and 2 FG as a conservative measure giving them 34 points. Missed field goals could be huge however, in a game that is expected to be as tight as this.
On Ohio State’s side, you can count on them to rely on JK Dobbins and give him 30+ carries if they want to win this game. Clemson’s defensive line is a bit undersized (especially Logan Rudolph @ 245 lb, Mason Rudolph's little brother) and Ohio State will try to exploit that. I think JK Dobbins will have close to 200 yards rushing as long as Ohio State doesn’t have some early drives stall and Clemson’s offense has a hot start. In my opinion, Ohio State’s wide receivers are not good enough for Ohio State to win if they get behind early and have to be forced to pass 30+ times. If things go according to Ohio State’s probable gameplan, I think Fields passes the ball about 20 times for about 200 yards and also contributes to the ground game for about 50 yards. Again, that puts the yardage total to about 450 yards and I think Ohio State should have about 6 scoring drives. Yup, that's exactly what I said about Clemson, and Ohio State will probably have a similar point total. That’s how evenly matched these two teams are, and that’s why there’s only 2 points separating these two teams on the current point spreads. With a tight game, this could come down to kicking and Blake Haubeil has been much more reliable (83%) than Clemson’s BT Potter.
Either way, I expect a close game but I don’t see either defense stopping the opposing team’s offense. Both teams have been efficient in the red zone historically, and I think it is reasonable to expect 6 scoring drives for both teams. I expect the score to go over 63. The winner could be decided by a field goal, a turnover, or even a penalty with how evenly matched the two teams are.
Other Potential Factors to Consider:
The Fiesta Bowl crowd will be pro-Ohio State according to Vivid Seats Fan Forecast (62% OSU/32% Clemson, remaining neutral). This should be worth a few points for Ohio State, but hasn’t really been mentioned by anyone.
Although Justin Fields hasn’t thrown many INT’s, he has been prone to fumbling (especially late in the season) and a turnover can be a deciding factor in a game expected to be as close as this one. Some of it may be attributed to an injury to his hand while diving into the end zone in the Penn State game (which he ended up having 3 fumbles in that game), and it may be a non-factor if healed by now.
Health - Clemson has no notable injuries, while Ohio State has two star players recovering. Justin Fields is still recovering from an MCL Sprain, while Shaun Wade has an undisclosed injury that’s he’s been recovering from since the Michigan game. Michigan’s passing attack torched Ohio State with Shaun Wade out, and Wade reaggravated the undisclosed injury late in the 4th quarter against Wisconsin.
Clemson hasn’t “played anybody”. The media says this, and while there is some truth to it, everyone knows how good Clemson really is. You can bet Dabo Swinney is using all of this as motivation for his team.
Possible Factors for the Current Point Spread:
2016 Ohio State/Clemson game still has an influence on bettors. Do you think the average person feels comfortable laying money on Ohio State after they got beat 31-0 by Clemson?
Recent Clemson success in the CFP (2 titles won against a juggernaut in Alabama), while Ohio State has been just missing the CFP is also influencing public opinion about these two programs and where they currently are.
Ohio State performance as of late hasn’t been as dominant, though they did play a stretch of playing three top 15 teams in a row. Ohio State had a sloppy 2nd half against Penn State that prevented them from covering the spread, gave up tons of yardage to Michigan in the first half due to poor tackling, and looked awful against Wisconsin in the first half also due to poor tackling. At the same time, Clemson has been playing their absolute best football as of late but are not playing anyone that have a chance of testing them.Comment -
I'm on Clemson to win the National Title. I think Dabo is the X factor. He's the best of the 4 playoff coaches imo and he'll have Clemson ready for Ohio State.Comment -
Clemson wanna war with us?
lol
Chase Young is going to be on girly mon’s heels like a hungry dog on the back of a meat truck
this one is personal, we will get our sweet revenge and shut Dabo’s pie hole in the process.
Home field advantage in the desert
oh and I agree with Wookie
Justin Fields is a better QB than Trevor Lawrence
40 TD’s and 1 pick.
and we didnt play Unc Charlotte, or Wofford lol we played a real schedule and are battle tested and are ready for war
Close game? Hell nah... Clemson is about to walk in to a buzz sawComment
